Empirical facts are presented to help in selecting the most probable physical mechanisms that are responsible for the sun-weather connections

Roberts, W. O.

English

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https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19780004641 2020-03-22T06:56:22+00:00Z
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1. IN4T;rUr10N AND AJUna.i3 	 12. r:^aF P:1JGr1,:.',; 	 J. GHA ?!i :'ERIOU
Univer:ilty of Colorado
Bou?.t	 Colorado
4. GR	 ,..Mi
DF. ­06540
J. SU... i 1	 113 [:3	 3: of pwbl Wom to rormi
Solar Terrestrial Res-inch
lbom4115175rn 9/30/77
•i. PF11^.14CWAL 1: ?i c y i GAfOrll:r ^— ^I/. CHAN rdc A(.,:--Nr:.UP.Ii n
TITLE: "asts ofPhysical Mechanisms Linking Solar Activity and/or Geomagnetic Dist'urbanceE
with the Large-Scale Circulation of the Lower Stratosphere and Upper 'troposphere
OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE: Our purpose was not primarily to prove that sun-weather connections
exist. however, to the extent that our work was done with high scientific standards, we
felt that any positive evidence we discovered would acid to the credibility 'of the field.
In view of the current widespread interest , in sun-weather studies,. we feel that our work•
has contributed toward making this field more scientifically respectable. our primary
objectives'were to furnish additional empirical facts designed to help in selecting the
most probable physical mechanisms and then at lenst speculate on the details of the
mechanisms.
TECHNIQUES USED: The techniques must necessarily be statistical in nature, in view of the
limited knowledge available. We employed many of the standard statistical techniques,
such as spectral analysis and superposed epoch analysis. We. employed si. •gniflaance test-
ing techniques that were perhaps more stringent than necessary, in order to -.:,ard against
accepting fortuitous results, as real.
MAJOR FINDINGS AND ITULICATIONS: The research accomplished may be summed up in the f'Ve
papers attached to this report. Paper. I is essentially negative in character. IJe sport
that we could not find any obvious 11-year or 22-year periodicities in the standard
meteorological data sets•on prrtui.pitation and surface temperatures. However., to demon-
strate that we. did itgt .exha,vst fill the possibilities for solar periodicities;,in weather
data, we attach . Attach T; a commentary on 'some similar work that did Have positive results.
We believe, with Mit0hell, that there are other techniques, such as tree-ring analysis,
that will show periudicities of around 22 years In weather data. Paper II 1& also of a
negative nature. We felt that, if the work of Xanthakis turned out to be valid, it would
be of great importance in guiding our future work. However, we discovered that this work
did not stand u? to our test ne on an extensive data set. After Hhese two negative
result's, we felt that we should spend the bulk of our time pursuing more positive results.
Paper III describes one of our principal results, :i.e., a large solar flare has several
effects on the atmospheric circulation: 1) At about the time of the flare, plus or minus
a day or so, the cyclonic circulation of the Earth's atmosphere shows an incrcnse of
5-10% above background; 2) By two or three days after the flare, at the same t:me. • as the
geomagnetic storm that normally follows the flare, there is a sharp decrease in th,1 same
atmospheric parameter to a level 5-10% below background. Ttis low level may paarsist for
several days. In Paper IV we extend this analysis, using the central meridian passa;e
of,ttlarge active solar parge as the solar signal. Again, we find almost the same picture,
with	 parge date playing the same role as the flare date did in Paper III. 'yhe effects
tare me
	
clearcu;. ;.; the case of the plages than in the case of the flares. In Paper V
we present an anal,,^;is of some of the more useful research in sun-weather relations that
have been discovered ovac the past s;everal decades. For a reader who wants to get a
general view of the field, we recommend reading this paper, perhaps in preference to the
others which are more detailed but cover narrower subjects.
(Continued on separate sheet)
	
	 ORIGINAL PAGE IS
OF POOR QUALITY
P10: . Jlrt ^TG'i	 , /	 ,^{^/1
	
Roger H. Olson, Project Director 	 I7 Ora 1977
rjVI 40'M - :1A
3
(NA51t-CR-1552E3) TESTS CE UEYSICAL 1478-12584
	 )
`	 GEOMAGNETICIrISTUEEANCES 1iM THE MICR 	
r9 plAF	 f
`	 (1	 ^9	 ( G 4	 g
LARGE-SCALE C]ECUTATICN CF TEE LC'1iti	 Unclas
Sti:EA'1CSPHERE AND UFPER T2CFCSFHLR,w,,,,ia,nilter=	 G346___53567
'University of Colorado
Boulder, Colorado
Solar Terrestrial Research
DES75-06540
1707-42
B I B'GIO GRAPIIY
Paper	 I: Gerety, Edward J., J. M. Wallace and C. S. Zerefos
"Sunspots, Geomagnetic Indices and the Weather: A
Cross-Spectral Analysis between Sunspots, Geomagnetic
Activity and Global Weather Data"
Journal of Atmospheric Science, 34, No. 4, April 1977
pp. 673-678
---	 Attachment I: "The Sun and the Weather" by R. 11. Olson
News and Views, Nature, Vol. 270, 3 November 1,977, p. 11
Paper M. Gerety, Edward J., R. N. Olson and W. 0. Roberts
"Analysis of a Possible Sun-Weather Correlation"
Submitted to Nature, November, 1977
Paper III: Olson, Roger H., W. 0, Roberts and C. S, Zerefos
"Short-Term Relationships Between Solar Flares, Geomagnetic
Storms and Tropospheric Vorticity Patterns"
Nature, 257, No. 5522, 11 September 1975, pp. 113-115
Paper IV: Olson, R. A., W. 0. Roberts, 11. D. Prince and E. R. Nedeman
"Short-Term Relationships Between Solar Plages, Solar Centimetr!c
Radio Flux, and tli? Vorticity of the Earth's Atmosphere"
Submitted to Nature, , November, 1977
Paper V: Roberts, Walter Orr
"Sun-Earth Relationships and the Extended Forecast Problem"
in Science, Technology, and the Modern Navy," Office of Naval
Research, ONR-37, 1976
SUM14ARY OF COMPLETED PROJECT
1. Institution and Address	 2. NSF Program
	
3. Grant Period
University of Colorado	 Solar Terrestrial	 4/15/75 to 9/30/77
Boulder, Colorado	 Research
4. Crant Number	 5. Budget Dur.	 6. Investigator	 7. Grantee Account Number
DES75-06540	 24 mos	 Roberts	 1707-42
MAJOR FINDINGS AND IMPLICATIONS: (Continued)
With regard to isolating the more likely mechanisms, the progress made was
only slight, as we expected would lie the case. We concluded that increased elec-
tromagnetic radiation from the sun, possibly X-rays, is a probable cause of in-
creased cyclonic activity in the Earth's atmosphere. The low energy particles, on
the other. hand, which cause auroral d9.sturl,ances, seem to be associated with
decreased cyclonic activity. We have concluded that the cirrus cloud mechanism
which we have suggested, cannot lie the only operative mechanism. The response to
flares is a very immediate. one, while the cirrus mechanism requires several days
to be effective, if it is effective. We suspect that thunderstorm activity and/or
ozone changes might be more likely candidates for explaining the more rapid
responses.
- End -
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Tests of physical mechanisms linking solar activity and/or geomagnetic disturbances with the large-scale circulation of the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere

Tests of physical mechanisms linking solar activity and/or geomagnetic disturbances with the large-scale circulation of the lower stratosphere and upper troposphere

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