The historical progression of efficiency improvements, cost reductions, and performance improvements in modules and photovoltaic systems are described. The potential for future improvements in photovoltaic device efficiencies and cost reductions continues as device concepts, designs, processes, and automated production capabilities mature. Additional step-function improvements can be made as today's simpler devices are replaced by more sophisticated devices

Wolf, M.

English

NASA Technical Reports Server

RESEARCH POSSIBILITIES? NO! 
Needs for Research to Make PV Solar Energy 
Utilization Broadly Competitive 
Sales: 
3ese anh 
UNfVERSlTY OF PENNSYLVANIA 
Research 
Pass ibi f i t ies 
- 
M. Wolf / 
Two Types of Research Philasophies 
I Researzh - 
Ovisn tcd 
Organhat ion 
c I 
i 
i 
MJOR CRITERION 
FOR 
COMPETITIVENESS: 
PRICE OF ELECTRIC ENERGY 
161 
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19830002247 2020-03-21T06:55:25+00:00Z
- .  
PLEYARY SESSION: M. WOLF 
Multivariable Relationships 
The Subsystems 
LIGHT PROCESSOR (CONCENTRATOR, TRACKER) 
MODULE - CONVGTER ARPSIY 
M1JEH CONDITIONING 
ENERGY STORAGE 
CONTROL. PROTECT ION 
AUX I L1 ARY ENERGY 
i 
? 
. *  
PLEYARY SESSION: M. W9L- 
System Characteristics Determine Market 
FOST LIKELY 
I 
I CAUDIDATES I I 
I I 
I 
SYSTE;~ TYPE LIKELY USE 
HIGH CGNCENTRATION, I ARIL  CLIMATES, L l  MI TED I SINGLE CRYSTAL AL,GAI-J!s/ 
CAS TRACK1 NG I CENTRAL STATION 
VERY HIGH EFFICIENCY (ATTENDED O~ERATIO,~\ I I (SINGLE CRYSTAL SI?) 
MULTI-BANDGAP SYSTEHS 
I 
I I I 
I 
I 
CONVERTER 
FLAT-PLATE. I ALL USES. LARGEST ' SIN6LE CRYSTAL SI 
I (nucri -BANMAP sYsiEfi?! HIGH EFFICIENCY I COHRERC I A L  I NSTALLAT I ON 
LOhG L I F C  I I I 
VERY LOY COST, 
LOU CFFICIENCY 
L I N I T E D  L I F E  
I P R l L  LY RESIDENTIAL. I LIMITED I 'TWIN-FILM A-SI  
I DO-SI-YOURSELF INSTALLA- I I omit r m  FIJA SEntcowD. 
(CU$NSE/~D $3)  
I I TlON I 
Research Needs on BOS 
SUBSYSTEM 
PLJER CONDITION- 
I NG 
CC'NTRFL, 
PRPTECTION 
ENERGY STORAGE 
FIE1 3 INS~ALLATION 
HIGH-RAT;O 
CONCEhTRATOR 
AUXILIARY ENE!?GY 
-- 
s = WALL OR SHORT 
I !NfERMEDIATc 
NEEDED ATTRIBUTES 
LOU PRICE, 
HIGH F'C I C I ENCY 
LOW P'!CF, SIMPLE 
LOW PRICE 
LONE L I F E  
HIGH EFFICIENCY 
HIGH DISCHARGE RATE 
DEED CYCLE CAPAblL lTY 
LPW PRICE 
CLi l  ORICE 
I.0U HAIN; sNANCE 
P A Y O F  
I LOW pl t i c r .  
I 
1 
A 
VH 
VY 
I 
H TO VH 
RiSK 
L 
L 
H 
VH 
w 
V)I 
T I E  RAilM 
T@ 7TAIII)IEICT 
s TO I 
S 
L 
? 
I 
L 
F HIGH L = LONG 
'!H = VERY HIL: R I S K  = INVERSE PROEAblLlTY FOR 
4TTAINME)iT OF EXPECTED PAVqr- 
lEEED ATlRIWlES 
COST REWCTIOll 10-20 TIRES 
EFFICIENCY IWREASE 
TO IIIILTI-BAUKAP 
25 TO 6K SICPLE CELLS 
SYSTEM (WILL REWIRE 
WOIFIED CELL PROCESSING) 
PAYOFF 
VH 
VH 
CXCXX FAG; IS 
=NARY SESSION: M. W3LF OF POOR QUALITY 
Research Needs on Modules 
RISK 
~ 
S T O I  
S r o l  
L 
I TO L 
CELL (nrUrW'6 
PROCESS) 
1 
1 
1 
VH 
I 
QLL 
IODl!!E 
COST REDCTTION J ~~ I 
Current Status of Major Module Processes - BppRoACH v SraTus 
- SILICON %LAR/MCDULES: 
4 1 4 . 4 ~ 6  
GRADE SI 
SEM 1 CONDUCTOR- 
PR!YATE t N D u s m  (UNION CARBIDE) 
60ES IYTO PILOT PIANT OPERATION. 
StH4 PROCESS Low COST 
PUR I F  ICAT ION 
PRIVATE .NOUSTRY ( H E W C K  
SEMICONDUCTOR COWVERTS EXISTING 
sIHcL3 PLANT 
NWLY PRODUCTION READY 
BOTTLENECK: SLICING 
SHEET GENERATION (SEMI-) kNTINUOUS 
AUTOMATED Cz &TAL 
GROWTH 
SERlCV STAL S I  
~WKG/CRUCIBLE, 
1s Cn DIA  
LOWER CCCT THAN 
Cz, COUPARABLE 
HIGH THROUGHPUT, 
PERFORMANCE 
LOU KERF, LOU 
COST 
PRODUCTION COST/PERFORWCE 
EXPERlEMCE NEEDED, 
BOTTLENECK: SLICING 
LITTLE ADVANCEMENT. 
P R o a w A R E A .  
SLICING 
RIBBON GROWTH: 
EFG LOU COST, CZ 
COMPATIBLE CELL 
PE RFORW.NC E 
PILOT PRODUCTION 
cL& EFF 1 L I ENCY ST ILL 
TOO LOU 
I64 
PLENARY SESSION: M. WOLF 
CELL FABRICATION: 
~ D U L E  Ass~ns l r  
Appnarm 
UED-omoRITE 
PROCESS SIMPLIFI-  
CATION, BY+RWYT 
REWCTIONa AUTOMA- 
TION 
BETTER MATERIAL 
SELECTION, AUTOCU- 
TlON 
Low COST, cz 
COMPATIBLE CELL 
PERFORIIAWCE 
SO.5 TO 1.5N 
mDuLEs OF If-ur 
EFF I C  I E m Y  
DTO 
20-YEAR LIFE 
CZ COWATIDLE EFFICIENCY PROVEN. 
ONLY MTUIIAL W I T H  IwTERI(AL 
sm1116. 
PRE-PILOT STME. PROIMICTI~.~~ 
COST E X i t O K E  NEEDED. 
W I U  PRIVATE I l lMlSTRY 'ii AHEAD? 
CONSIDERABLE TECW LOGY ADVAWCE- 
m?: MADE. 
%$1O/w, AT 7-121 E=CICIENCY. 
k T I N U E 0  SLOW eP06RESS I N  
STAGNATION AT A PRICE LEVEL OF 
PRIVATE INDUSTRY a 
5-l0$Afp AHEM? 
DTO 
Cosr/i I FE TRADE-OFF UNCEHTA I N .  
- A SI THIN =ILM PROCESSES, < M,5/rlp RESEARCH STAOE 
LOU-COST ENCAPSUU- LIMITED EFFI-  fkDUCTlON I N  JAPAN FOR CALCU- 
TION C I ENCY LATO~UATCH MAICKET 
h . , b l - f i S / h A S  SINGLE 1-TAL CELLS, HIGHER EFFICIENCY PILOT LINE QUANTITIES AVAILABLE 
THAN SI CELLS, 
TIEMPERATIRE PER- 
RADIATION RESIS- 
TANCE FOR SPACE 
CELLS 
PR IHAR 1LY CONCENTRATOR AND 
h Y  FORM COHPON€NT I N  MULTI- 
SUPERIOR HIGH SPACE CELLS. 
FORHANCE, BETTER BANDGAP SYSTEM 
CU~S/CDS CELLS 1HXN FILH PROCESSES, < $c,5/wp, TECHNOLOGY BE I NG ABANDONED? 
LOU-COST ENCAPSULA- LIMITED EFFI-  
TION CIENCY, LIFE 
Cu2 ~NSE/CDS CELLS DTO HIGHER EFFICIENCY, RESEARCH STAGE, MAY FORM 
L#GER L I F E  THAN COMPONENT I N  MUL71-BANDGAP 
b@/CDS SYSTiMi 
ALL OTHER con- h S T L Y  Th IN  FILM bS1LY LOW COST VARIOUS LEVELS OF RESEARCH. 
POUND SEWICON- PROCESSES LIKELY REDUNDANT W L  TH FUVHER 
DUCTORS ADVANCED APPROACHES1 
SOHE CANDIDATES FOR MULTI- 
BANDGAP SYSTEM, 
165 
PLENARY SESSION: M. WOLF 
oc*&.;:AL IS 
OF POOR QUALITY 
Who Fays What Research? 
SHORT RANGE, LW RISK 
mNUFACTURIN6 INWSTRY 
GRAWAL PROCESS MVANCEIENT. 
AUTO)UTION FOR COST REDUCTION. 
SHALL STEPS TO EFFICIENCY 
IMPROVEHENTI EXTENSION OF 
OPERATING L I F E  
GRADUAL POWER CONDI1IONING 
PR"3RESS 
IN BETMLN 
HANUFACTURINC INDUSTRY 
S a  THlN F I M  APPROACHES 
(How LONG. I F  M R K E T  DOES NOT 
DEVELOP SOON?) 
?M? 
RADICAL PROCESS PDVANCEKENT 
R E L I A B I L I T Y  DEVELOPMENT 
STANDARDIZATION 
CONCENTRATOL; 
F l E L D  INSTALLATI3N 
LoH6 RCYISE. HIGH RISK 
I;OVERMENT 
GOVERWNT 
SI-CELLS: EFFICIENCY >20Zi 
iMl) 
HULTI-BAND6AP SYSTEHS 
CRAlN KIJNDARY RESEARCH 
THIN F I L A  DEVICES (?) 
BATTERIES/FUEL CELLS 
HANUFACTLiRING INDUSTRY 
~~ 
A-sl APPROACHES 
Identifiable Research Needs for Efficiency Improvement 
%AL NEEDED UNDERSTANDING FURTHER ACTIONS 
LONGER MINORITY CRYSTAL STRUCTURE, PROCESS CONTROL 
(HEAW METALS?) (RIBBUN) GROWTH 
CARRIER L IFETIME S I  ROLE OF 1MPURITIES I N  CRYSTAL 
ROLE OF COMPLEXES 
(02, c, STRUCTURE 
DEFECTS?) 
ORIGIN OF DEFECTS, 
IMPURITIES 
INTRODUCTION HECHANIW 
OF DE'ECTS, IMPURITIEJ  
POTENTIAL AND L i H I T S  OF 
GETTER ING 
INFLUENCE OF POST-GROWTH PROPER POST-GROWTH 
HEATING, LIGHT PROCESS SELECTION 
$ 
PLENARY SESSION: M. WOLF 
SURFACE PASSIVATIOW 
A n A I r r m T  OF PRE- 
bEs16Wm DEVICE 
STRUCNRE 
'CLOSED LOOP DESIGN' 
ouct I1EQIIulIsn PROCESS MVELdP- 
REQUIRDlOlTS OW PASSIV- RENT 
ATION UYERS 
WAYS TO MEET REQUtROlEtrrS 
OPTICAL PROP€RTtES OF 
PASSIVATIol( U ' E R S  
COATI116S 
EFFECTS RESULTINS FROM 
1IQ)IVIWAL PROCESSES 
 DIFFUSION^ CVD OR bT 
*Low TERUUNRE' m- 
LrFETrrr MIWfEIUWCE 
THROWOW PROCESSES? OR 
RECOVERY? 
IaTERAcTrans WITH AR 
WIJ E d  
CESSIWG FEASIBLE? 
SIMPLER PROCESS f h W D S ?  
h L Y S I S :  ALL PARAMETERS 
WHICH INFLUENCE PERFORMANCE 
OR ENTER IK)DELLIWC 
LACKIMG: 
RELIABLE REASUREMEHTS OF 
FRONT LAYER DIFFUSION LENGTH; 
flEASUREMENT OF: 
DIFFUSION LENGTH OF MORE 
HEAVILY DOPED LAYERS; 
EFFECTIVENESS OF HIGH/LOU 
JUNCT IONS i 
FROkf SURFACE RECOMBINATION 
TnO METHODS BASED ON COM- 
PLETELY DIFFERENT EFFECTS 
SHOULD BE AVAILABLE FOR COR- 
VELOC 1 TY 8 
ROBORATION OF RESULTS, 
UNDERSTANDING OF HEAW-DOPING 
EFFECTS TO ALLOW MORE PRECICE 
MODEUINGj ASCERTAIN U L T I -  
MATELY A C H I N n 3 L E  EFFICIENCY, 
v
ALL ?HE ABOVE, PLUS: 
EFFECTS OF GRAIN BOJNDARIES 
ON DEVICE PERF0RFC:NCE; 
CONTRJL OF ELECTRICAL EFFECTS 
OF GRAIN BOUNDAR1ES 
3EVICE DESIGN TO H I N I M I Z E  
EFFECTS OF GRAIN BOURNDARIES 
167 
PLENARY SESSION: M. WOLF - 
(INCL. M R P H O U S  SI?k ElC) 
k L  OF ABOVE, EXCEPT FOR GRAIN 
#)UWDARIES, WERE nor APPLICABLE. 
PLUS: LEVEL OF u(Is t1 l l6  KWOWL- 
EDGE 6ENERU.Y MUCH LOWER THAN 
FOR SI 
TIOIIS. 
b f R O L  OF FABRICATloll PROCESSES. 
EFFECTS OF STOCHIOIETRY DEVIA- 
k L  OF A#IVE; EXCEPT FOR 
MOT APPLICABLE. PLUS: 
INTERFACES B E l W M  CELLS OF 
6RAIh’ BOUNDARY EFFECTS, WHERE 
DIFFERENT BANDGAP (TUNNEL- 
JUNCTIONS?> 
PROBLEMS OF HIYUTCH B E M E N  
CELLS UNDER DIFFERIN6 INTENSITYI 
SPECTRAL DISTRIBUTION (An), 
TtnPERATURE . 
i 
i 
The Technology Race 
- May be moving 
A MuniIer (rOartly recognized) 
A 
L 1 Stoppers (unmcogoircd) 
r i  
Li Perceived Limits 


Research possibilities? No! Needs for research to make PV solar energy utilization broadly competitive

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