A correlation between the incidence of influenza pandemics and increased cosmic ray activity is made. A correlation is also made between the occurrence of these pandemics and the appearance of bright novae, e.g., Nova Eta Car. Four indices based on increased cosmic ray activity and novae are proposed to predict future influenza pandemics and viral antigenic shifts

Yu, Z. D.

English

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525 SH 10.1-2
Using the Information of Cosmic Rays to Predict Influenza Epidemic
Yu Zhen-dong
Hubei Research Institute of Environmental Protection, Wuhan, China
Abstract
Why does influenza become worldwide pandemic at times? This paper suggests some new obser-
vations. First, there is a remarkable relationship between influenza pandemics and cosmic ray
environment. Second, there is an excellent correlation between influenza pandemics and bright
novae and Nova _ Car. In addition, we propose four indexes to predict future influenza pande-
mics, Using one of these indexes we successfully predicted the influenza epidemic in 1984.
A. Introduction
Influenza has caused the greatest visitation and the severest natural calamity in this cen-
tury. Unimaginably about twenty million people died in the influenza pandemic of 1918-i919. Why
does influenza become worldwide pandemic at times? For exploring its basic cause, in 1978 R.Ing
suggested that except for the pandemic of 1889, the beginning dates of historical influenza pa-
ndemic in the 18th and [9th centuries, as well as pandemics and viral antigenic shifts in this
(l) We have different views on
century, appear to have occurred in years of high sunspot number.
this. At the time of suggesting his viewpoint, R.Ing cited seven influenza paddemics in the
[eth and [9th centuries, based on the researches by J.R.Mote. But from complete data published
by J.R.Mote, there were fifteen main influenza epidemics in the [eth and Igth centuries. (2) Al-
though he employs different terms of "epidemic" and "pandemic", however, this distinction is
purely for convenionce as Mote indicated. Because different historical records had different
criteria and different detailed extent, it is very difficult to compare epidemical scale one
another exactly. The distribution of the beginning dates of fifteen main influenza epidemics in
the sunspot cycle is shown in figure I.
From figure [ we can see that there are four times in years ok high sunspot number(over 80)
and five times in years of low sunspot number(below 25). In addition, from researches by W.I.8.
Beveridge in [977, there were seven considerable worldwide influenza pandemics in the [eth and
[gth centuries. (3) The beginning dates Of these pandemics are also shown in figure [. We note
that there are one time in year of high sunspot nungmer and four tim_s in years of low sunspot
number. Therefore, according to the studies by J.R.Mote and researches by W.I.B.Se_aeridge, we
can conclude that in sunspot cycle the phase that correlated to a certain extent with epidemics
and pandemics of influenza should be the years of low sttnspot nun%bet, it was more than the oc-
curred nu_oer in high sunspot year.
I I I I I I f
I T T T I
a l J
m o researches by J.R.Mote
_ A researches by W, [.B.Beveridge
Ioo x loo
§ so so
1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 Year
F_g,_ The dlatrlbutio¢% of the beginning dates of main influenza
epidemics in the sunspot cycle in the 18th and 19th centuries
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19850026821 2020-03-20T16:49:52+00:00Z
62e SH 10.1-2
For explaining the ,_=_hanisms on how the high sunspot activity can affect influenza pande-
mics,Ing indicates that people conjecture that the amount of ultraviolet light(UV) incident on
the surface of the earth is increased by enhanced solar activity, which might conceivably acce-
lerate the mutation rate of the influenza virus. This speculation cannot, however, explain in-
fluenza pandemics occurred in years of low sunspot number. In this paper we try to offer an ex-
pIanation for this based on cosmic ray researches.
But why have influenza pandemics occurred in some times and why have they not occurred in
the others around the periods of low and high sunspot number? Actually, the perlod8 of low and
high sunspot number ire merely a favorable conditions and a minor causing factor of influenza
pandemlc,and the dominant causing factor might be earth's cosmic ray environment.
B. Influenza and the cosmic ray environment
Since the start of systematic and continuous observations of cosmic ray in [g36,the number
of ground level enhancement event had been rare in more than forty years. Among them large en-
hancement events happened only five times. (4) These large Ground Level Solar Cosmic Ray Events
(GLEs) occurred on Feb.28,19421Mar.7,1942! July 25,1g46l Nov.lg,1949 and Feb.23,1956.According
to the researches by V.M_hdsnovet al.(5)there were five influenza pandemics in the first half
of this century. Among them the beginnlnq dates of two pandemics were in 1943 and in 1947. They
occurred just after the first three large GLES respectively. After the large GLE on Nov.lg,L949,
in 1950-1951 there also occurred a severe infl_enza epidemic spreading to Europe,Africa, North
America, Japan and other places. In Liverpool. the death rate even surpassed that of the pan_e-
talc of, 1918. (5) So V.M.Zhdanovet al. held that the epidemic time of the fifth influenza pande-
mic in this century was I947-Feb.1952. Even more, in 1957, the next year of large GLE on Feb.23,
1956, there occurred a worldwide influenza pandemic too. Among seven influenza pandemics occur-
red hitherto in this century, it was the second severest pandem/c. We note that after five large
GLEs occurred in the past fort T years or so influenza pandemic invariabl T broke out in each case.
Therefore, very remarkable is the corresponding relationship between influenza pandemic and the
large variation in the cosmic ra T environment.
These extraordinary events of cosmic ray environment all occurred before influenza pandemics
one Fear or so. To start a new influenza pandemic this interval is reasonable, since it takes
time for influenza viruses to mutate or to recombine genes and then for selection of human im-
munit T to form new pandemic strains.
An_ong three pande,*ics the se%-mrest one was that of 1957. A2_d the GLE on Feb.13,1956 was the
largest GLE among all recorded GLEs. It seems as if the sc_le and harmfulness of influenza epi-
demic were related to the enhanced amplitude of ground level cosmic rays. But this relationship
mlgh_ not be simply understood as a direct proportion relationship.
THe mechanisms on how the cosmic ray environment can affect influenza pandemics cannot be
discussed here in detail. We presume it has these main aspects. First, the sudden enhancement
of cosmic ray environment could deplete the atmospheric ozone layer and therefore bring the in-
crease of the amount of ultraviolet light incident upon the surface of the earth. Second, the
abrupt e.h*_ame.t of ground level cosmic rays seems to give living things an X-ray. The ionizing
radiation resulted from cosmic rays in human and animal body and the enhanced ultraviolet rays
could lead to mutation of influenza viruses or gene recombination among different human and ani-
mal influenza viruses and therefore bring viral antigenic shifts and form new subtypes of influ-
enza virus. Third, the large variation of cosmic ra T environment could lead to corresponding va-
riation of other natural environment elements and therefore bring a more favourable ecologlca_
environment for infection and transmission of new subtype of Influenza virus,
From these mechanisms, we can understand the reasons that influenza pandemics sometimes oc-
curred in the years of Low sunspot number. Because the years of low sunspot number were Just •
the years of high cosmic ra M intensity on the earth (6) , so the years of low sunspot number were
just the years of high ultraviolet intensity incident on the surface of the earth.
C. Influenza and novae
The researches on the relationship between cosmic ray environment and influenza pandemic
provide a new vat for exploring causes of other influenza pandemics. We might envisage that in-
fluenza pandemic can also be aroused b T other astronomical phenomena not just the sun. if these
phenomena can cause large enhanced effect of cosmic ra M environment of life on the earth.
Here we want to raise a new issue i.e. the relationship between the novae6[_nd influenza
pandemics. From table I we notice that there is a very good corresponding relationship between
bright novae and the front four influenza pandemics occurred in this century. In this century
there have hitherto occurred only eight novae with maximum apparent magnitude(MAH_ brighter
S27 SH 10.1-2
than 2.2. And table [ listed as many as _iv_ bright novae_ ?he three others are GK Per with MA24
0.2 in Feb.1901, V476 Cyg with MAM 2.0 in Aug.1920, and V[5OO Cyg with _ 2.2 in Aug.1975.
After the occurrence Of Nova V[500 Cyg, we hav_ noted that swine influenza viruS(Hew[N1 ) reap-
peared in 1976 and the HiN[ subtype resurfaced in 1977 and spread to wide regions of the world.
After the Occurrence of Nova V476 Cyg, we ha%._ also noted that influenza epidemic occurred in
many countries, such as L_, ireland. Belgitum, Norway etc.,, the influenza mortality reached a
peak in i922. (5) As regards the Nova GK Per, we hav_ not had detailed epidemiological data of
influenza in [902, so we donot know whether an influenza epidemic occurred or not in that year.
We note that after seven bright novae out of those eight all occurred epidemics or pandemics of
influenza, therefore, the corresponding relation between bright novae and influenza pandemics
is also very remarkable.
About the great pandemiC of [918-[919 we thinM that its beginning was caused by other fac-
tor but the Nova V603 Aql took a decisiv_ role for that why the second wave of this pandemic
became w_ry different than the first wasne in harmfulness and turned to the _ost spectacular
outbrea_ of any disease for hundreds of years.
Table 1. The o0ntrast between bright novae and the first
four influenza pandemles in the 20th century
The beginning date8 (7)
of influenza panda- Bright novae
mice(5)
1918 Nova V603 Aql, maximum apparent megnltude -1.1
on June 10,1918
1926 Nova P_ Pic, maximum _pparent magnitude 1.2 on
June 8.1925
1936 Nova DQ liar. maximum apparent magnitude 1.4 on
Dec.22.19_$
Nova CP Lac. maxim_ apparent magnitude 2.1 on
' June 20, 1936
194_ Nova CP Pup, maximum opparent magnitude 0,2 On
N0v.11,19&2
Table 2. The contraa_ between the years of maximum of brightness
of Nova _ Car and the years of influenza pandemics in
the 18th and [gth centuries
The years of epide- All the years of The years of influenza
mlcs and pandemics maximum of bright- pandemics
of In'fluenza hems of Nova 9 C a_7-) by W.I.B.Beveridge (_)
b_ J.R.Mote (2)
* 1709-1712
1729-1733 1729 17_2-!733
17_7-1762 1752
1767
• 1772
177_-1776
1780-1782 1781-1782
1788-1790
1798-I_O5 1801 1800-1802
18]Q-18_ 1827 1830-18_3
183&-1837
18_7-1850 1843 _8a7-1848
1857-1858 1856 1857-1858
1873-1875 1871
1809 1889 1889-1890
528 SH 10.1-2
regards the influenza pandemics of 18th and 19th centttries, we found that there existed
an interesting relationship between them and Nova _ Car. The brightness of _ Car was variable.
It was Sometimes bright and sometimes dark. According to the researches by C.Payne-Gaposchki_ )
in 18th and lgth centuries its maximum occurred only eight times. Table 2 showes that after
every maximum of brightness of Nova_ Car there was almost always the influenza pandemic. Espe-
cially in the 19th century, their relation was bordering on one to one corresponding relation.
it is hardly conceivable for such good correlation. Is it possible that the Nova _ Car could
bring a very large amount of UY,X- and r-rays incident on the earth when it turned up outburst?
Nova is a violent phenomenon of star explosion. People belie(_ it is one of the sources of
cosmic rays. If the no_ra can really bring the influenza pandemic, then the transmitter of nova
information should be its high energy X-,r-rays ( nova's X-,r-rays--_ the depletion of the atmo-
spheric ozone layer--* the strong increase in the solar [;V incident on the sturface of the earth
--_ influenza pandemic ). Nevertheless, bright nova is a rare astronomical phenomenon. In the
past forty years or so there occurred only one bright nova with M]tM 2.2. The
modern data of cosmic ray intensity variation effect of nova are v_ry few. so it is difficult
now to make sound comments on affection extent of bright nova on earth's cosmic ray environment.
However, the excellent correlation between influenza pandemics and novae implies strongly that
the cosmic ray envirorunent variation of earth should be seriottsly investigated after the occur-
rence of nova. Therefore, we suggest that the intensity variation of X-,r-rays arid [/V will hav_
to be investigeted by various observation m_ans from ground le%nel to satellite altitude when
turning up outburst for _ Car or when occurring of bright nova in the fut,_tre.
D. ?o predict influenza epidemic
According to the excellent correlation in the past, we propose four indexes to predict
future influenza pandemicsl first, the occurring of the large GLE! second, the occttrring of the
bright nova; third, the turning up outburst again for _ Car! fourth, the large enbance_nt of
life's cosmic ray environment caused by other astronomical phenomena. (8)(9)(10) When one of
these isdexes takes place, it would not at all be stlrprising if a new influenza pandemic should
emerge soon after.
We are glad to report that according to the first index we successfully predicted the
influenza epidemic in 1984. On Dec.8,1982 there occurred a middle GLE. (II) So the author wTote
a report to the China Influenza Centre to predict that influenza epidemic would so_ e_xerge in
the world in 1984. As expected, the influenza epidemic has emerged. In the U_SR in two months
from the second half of January to the first half of March the ntumber of cases of influenza ill-
ness reached se_-_ral milIio¢Is, at)out 3-5_ of the population were affected during the week Of
highest activity, (12) in big cities and i, the capitals of fifteen Soviet Socialist Republics
the incidence reached about I_ Of the population. In the saa_e time, widespread influenza ill-
ness has been reported also in the USA, many european countries, Japan, Pakistan, Algeria,
Morocco, Tonga etc.. ([3) therefore, or_ o_ the view_ints of this paper has got a SUCCeSSfLLL
verlficat[on.
References!
i. log R. Solar activity and influenza. Nature 1978j 276;556.
2..Mote J_. Human and swine influenzas. Inl Virus and Rickettsial Diseases. Harvard
university Press, L9,%81 429-516.
3. Bays ridge WIB, [nfluenza,l'he Last Great Plague. New YorMz Prodist, 1977s 27-30.
4. DuggaI SP. Relativistic solar cosmic rays. Ray Geophys Space Phys 1979; 17:1021-58.
5. Zhdanov _'M,et al, influenza. .Moscow, Ig58s 408-422. ( in Russ ian ) m
5. Pomerantz ,_, Duggal SP, the sun and cosmic rays. Rev Oeophys Space Phys 1974_ 121347.
7. Pay_ne-43aposchkin C. _he Galactic Novae. A_msterdaml North-Holland, 19_7s 2-98.
8. Wdowczyk J, W6lf_ndale AW. Cosmic rays and ancient catastrophes. Nature 1977_268J510-12.
9. Clark DH, .gcCrea WH, Stephenson FR. Frequency of nearby supernovae and cIin_atic and
biological catastrophes. Nature 19771 265_3i8-19.
10. Agrawal SP. Ananth AG, SemalFOaedkar M_. Kargathra LV, Rao L_. High-energy cosmic ray
intensity increase Of nonsolar origin and the ususual Forbush decrease of August 1972,
J Geophys Research 19741 7gm226g-80.
il. Fenton KS, Fenton AG, HtLmble JE. Cosmic ray flare increases. Proc 18th Int Cosmic Ray
Conf 1983J 41189.
12. WHO. Wkly Ep[dem Rec 1984! 5g1115.
13. WHO, WklF Epidem Rec Lg84! 5g,ig-LT9.


Using the information of cosmic rays to predict influence epidemic

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