Macroeconomic Effects of Projected Population Aging in Industrial Countries

Abstract

The effects of population aging are examined with a theoretical model and simulations of MULTIMOD. An older population will consume more of aggregate disposable income, require higher government expenditure, and decrease labor supply. These effects should raise real interest rates and lower capital stock and output. Effects on current balances will depend on the relative speed and extent of aging. Simulations of projected demographic changes suggest that by 2025, real interest rates would be increased in all countries, and net foreign assets would be increased in the United States and decreased in the Federal Republic of Germany and Japan.