Asteroid and comet flux in the neighborhood of the earth

Abstract

Significant advances in the knowledge and understanding of the flux of large solid objects in the neighborhood of Earth have occurred. The best estimates of the collision rates with Earth of asteroids and comets and the corresponding production of impact craters are presented. Approximately 80 Earth-crossing asteroids were discovered through May 1988. Among 42 new Earth-crossing asteroids found in the last decade, two-thirds were discovered from observations at Palomar Observatory and 15 were discovered or independently detected in dedicated surveys with the Palomar Observatory and 15 were discovered or independently detected in dedicated surveys with the Palomar 46 cm Schmidt. Probabilities of collision with Earth have been calculated for about two-thirds of the known Earth-crossing asteroids. When multiplied by the estimated population of Earth-crossers, this yields an estimated present rate of collision about 65 pct higher than that previously reported. Spectrophotometric data obtained chiefly in the last decade show that the large majority of obvserved Earth-crossers are similar to asteroids found in the inner part of the main belt. The number of discovered Earth-crossing comets is more than 4 times greater than the number of known Earth-crossing asteroids, but reliable data on the sizes of comet nuclei are sparse. The flux of comets almost certainly was highly variable over late geologic time, owing to the random perturbation of the Oort comet cloud by stars in the solar neighborhood