Stratospheric feedback from continued increases in tropospheric methane

Abstract

Tropospheric concentrations of methane have increased steadily over the past ten years at an average rate of 16.5 ppbv per year, to a value in January 1988 of 1.69 ppmv. Measurements of CH sub 4 concentrations in air bubbles trapped in ice cores have shown concentrations of about 0.7 ppmv 200 years ago, with little further change for thousands of years before that. Interpolation earlier into this century suggests a concentration of about 1.1 to 1.2 ppmv in the 1940's. The only important pathway believed to be important for transfer of air from the troposphere to the stratosphere in through the tropical tropopause which is cold enough to reduce the mixing ratio of H sub 2 O in that air to about 3 ppmv. The only other major pathway for the delivery of H to the stratosphere is through the simultaneous injection of gaseous CH sub 4 in the same rising air. The formation of clouds in the stratosphere is dependent upon very low temperatures, and generally upon the amount of water vapor available. The possibility of a positive feedback exists, especially in well-oxidized methane air, that clouds are easier to form than earlier. This could mean enhancement of PSCs in both Antarctic and Arctic locations. Additional H sub 2 O in the stratosphere can also add to some of the greenhouse calculations