There is no doubt that the antropogenic effect play an important role in the effects of corpuscular radiation on weather and climate. The task, however, is to distinguish between antropogenic effect in the atmosphere due to human activities and natural climatic fluctuations influencing biological systems. The increase in global temperature during the past 100 years is in relatively good coincidence with the increase in geomagnetic (corpuscular) activity. It is concluded that it could have been the increase in temperature on the Northern Hemisphere, due to the processes occurring in the auroral oval under enhanced corpuscular radiation which led to an increased atmospheric concentration of CO2 in the past. Both processes, i.e., antropogenic and solar activity effects, should be therefore intensively studied due to their important role for elucidating the past and present global change mainly in temperature, climate and biological systems

Bucha, V.

English

NASA Technical Reports Server

N90-28164 13
EFFECTS OF CORPUSCULAR RADIATION ON WEATHER AND CLIMATE
V. Bucha
Geophysical Institute, Czechosl. Acad. Sci., Bo6nf II, 141 31
Praha 4, Czechoslovakia
INTRODUCTION
HARRY VAN LOON and JEFFERY C. ROGERS (1978) have investi-
gated the wellknown tendency for winter temperatures to be low
over northern Europe when they are high over Greenland and the
Canadian Arctic, and conversely (Fig. l).Well-defined pressure
anomalies over most of the Northern Hemisphere are associated
with this regional seesaw in temperature, and these pressure
anomalies are so distributed that the pressure in the region of
the Icelandic low is negatively correlated with the pressure
over the North Pacific Ocean and over the area south of 50°N in
the North Atlantic Ocean, Mediterranean and Middle East, but po-
sitively correlated with the pressure over the Rocky Mountains.
Since 1840 the seesaw, as defined by temperatures in Scandinavia
and Greenland, occurred in more than 40% of the winter months
and the occurrences are seemingly not randomly distributed in
time as one anomaly pattern would be more frequent than the oth-
er for several decades. For this reason the circulation anomali-
es in the seesaw come to play an important part in deciding the
level of regional mean temperatures in winter and thus in deci-
ding the long-term temperature trends. These regional temperatu-
re trends are then closely associated with changes in frequency
of atmospheric circulation types, and it is therefore unikely
(VAN LOON, ROGERS, 1978 ) that the trends are caused directly by
changes in insolation or in atmospheric constituents and aero-
sols.
RESULTS
Changes in winter temperature (Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. ) in Oslo
have a similar character as in Prague. Fig. 2 shows a comparison
of changes in geomagnetic activity (C indices) with winter tem-
peratures at several sites, Prague and Oslo which are positively
correlated, and Jakobshavn and Walla-Walla which are negatively
correlated. Very expressive is the positive correlation between
the geomagnetic activity and temperature in Prague (c.c.O.63) .
This seems to be in favour with the fact that the increased cor-
puscular (geomagnetic) activity is connected with the prevailing
zonal type of atmospheric circulation (r.h.s. of Fig. 2 bottom )
leading to the warming in Prague and Oslo. On the other hand at
the time of low corpuscular activity the meridional type prevai-
ls (r.h.s. of Fig. 2 top) and causes the cooling in Prague and
Oslo due to the prevailing flow from the North during low geo-
magnetic activity at these sites, while Jakobshavn and Walla -
Walla are at the same time under the influence of warm air from
the south along the western side of mighty high pressure areas.
This relation can be seen also in Fig. 3 showing that below
normal te_peratures in Prague (iO cases) occurred at the time of
low geomagnetic activity and above normal temperatures _iO cases)
correspond to high geomagnetic activity.
https://ntrs.nasa.gov/search.jsp?R=19900018848 2020-03-19T21:01:34+00:00Z
14
2o
-12 JAKOBSH_VN/l, ,,,, f_ A
.lOO
-18 -2
-_°A. ,k t.,.f//w /,A. // -_
-5
-6
Fig. i. Five-year running means of winter temperature at
Jakobshavn and Oslo (°C) (I,'.VAN LOON and J.C.ROGERS,1978).
OO
nl-_
0:_
c_
r- r_
O8
06
0.4
T_2
1
0
-1
-2
4
2
0
-2
Fig.
Cip
Progue
Os[o
Jokobshovn
Wotto -Wotto
1960 1970 1980 1990
IdU"
_a H
90"W._ '_]'E
/
O"
O"
2. Changes in geomagnetic activity (C indices - averages for months November,December,
January,February ) and in temperature for Prague and Oslo showing positive correlation and for
Jakobshavn (Greenland) and Walla-Walla (Washington) showing negative correlation with geomag-
netic activity. Meridional type of circulation - r.h.s.,top, zonal type - r.h.s, bottom.
i6
OJ ,'. ". .....
S 0 N O J F M, A
8
Fig. 3 a Changes of the diurnal values of geomagnetic activity
(_Kp iqdices l.h.s. )and of temperature (deviations from the
normal) in Prague - r.h.s, for the period September-April.
Severe winters correspond to very low values of geomagnetic
activity - Fig. 3.a, mild winters occurred at the time of
enhanced geomagnetic activity - Fig. 3.b
17
,95+-$7
4
2(: 1957-58
0 .......
O .....
20 1, 111_ _ _'1960-61 0 • ,
.4
0 , . . -8
20 1973-74 .
0 ........
2( 1974-75
0 ....... -8_
4C + 1983-84
°
S 0 N 0 J F M A S 0 N D J F M
Fig. 3 b
18
Somebodycan object why at the time of extremely low geo-
magnetic activity <1965-66) the winter in Prague was not so se-
vere. This seemsto be connected with a different type of atmo-
spheric circulation as described earlier (BUCHA,1988).
The cross-correlation of daily changes K and T in Prague
showedthe time lag of 27 days between the increase resp. decre-
ase in geomagnetic activity and increase resp. decrease of tem-
perature in Prague to be the most frequent in the period 1932 -
1985 (BUCH_,HEJDA,1988 ). In this way these connections as gi-
ven in Figs. 1,2,3 seemto confirm the effect of corpuscular
radiation on the intensification of processes in the auroral
oval and on the increase of temperature leading to the occurren-
ce of zonal type of circulation.
Onepossibility how to explain the peculiar behaviour of
the atmospheric circulation is the intensification of processes
which take place along the auroral oval at the time of enhanced
corpuscular (geonagnetic) activity characterized by the pene-
tration of energetic particles and bremsstrahlung as far as the
lower stratosphere <EUCHA,1986) resulting in the sudden forma-
tion of cirrus clouds, in direct increases of temperature and
pressure even in the troposphere, and causing the zonalization
of atmospheric flow to increase <BUCHA1984,1988). According to
other mechanisms _HINES,1974 ) stratospheric and mesospheric
winds play a dominant role in determining the "refractive index"
for planetary waves <e.g., see CHARNEYand DRAZIN,1961; MATSUNO
1970; and SCHOEBERLand GELLER,1976 )which will, in turn, de-
termine the transmission-reflection properties of these waves.
Thus, changes in the middle atmosphere flow due to corpuscular
radiation might lead to changes in the tropospheric amplitudes
and phases of planetary waves that propagate to this level. The
energetics of these changes are such that relatively small
amounts of energy may give rise to significant effects in the
upper atmosphere where the density is low, and these upper at-
mosphereeffects merely act to modulate the effect of fixed
energy sources in the troposphere. According to BATES_1977)the
amplitude and phase of the tropospheric planetary waves as well
as the resulting meridional heat flux were found to vary signi-
ficantly when the tropospheric forcing remained fixed but the
stratospheric wind and/or static stability fields were altered.
The three main dissipation mechanismsoperative in the
stratosphere and mesosphere are radiative damping acting through
carbon dioxide and ozone, mechanical dissipation which is pre-
sumedto act through the turbulent mixing that results from the
"breaking" of waves and tides, and the possible absorption of
wave momentumat critical levels.
GELLERand ALPERT'smodeling study indicatedi1980) that if
solar disturbance effects lead to changes in the meanzonal
middle stratospheric flow of 20 %, then changes in the strengths
of the high-latitude quasi-stationary troughs and ridges amount-
ing to 20%of the observed range of variability mayoccur. They
believe that they have demonstrated the viability of the HINES
_1974) mechanismsfor solar effects on the troposphere and have
given an idea of the magnitudes of the effects to be anticipated
if the stratospherib meanzonal winds vary with solar cycle be-low an altitude of 35 km.
Furthermore, GELLERand ALPERT's results indicate <1980)
that the tropospheric planetary wave response to solar-induced
changes in the zonal meanstate of the stratosphere occur regio-
nally, that is to say, they may be much more evident at someio-
19
ngitudes and latitudes than at other locations where they may be
absent altogether.
It is known that the zonal flow steadily prevails in the
southern hemisphere, while Deriods with zonal or meridional flow
alternativaly occur in the northern hemisphere as a result of
the corpuscular radiation effect (BUClIA,1988) . The orographlc
effect due to continents and oceans seems to influence the flow
to such degree that we should consider the meridional flow with
atmospheric blocking (Fig. 2, r.h.s, top) to be basic in the
middle latitudes of the northern hemisphere and not the zonal
flow as was presented till now. During several winter Deriods,
when the geomagnetic activity was low, e.g. 1962-65, 1976-80,the
meridional circulation together with expresive blocking high
oressure areas prevailed in the northern hemisphere with cold
winters in Europe and North America. On the other hand, at the
time of high geomagnetic activity, e.g. 1959, 1960, 1974, 1975,
1982,1983 the zonal flow with a high index cycle persisted prac-
tically during the whole winter period. This again seems to con-
firm our conclusions that the processes in the auroral oval due
to the corpuscular radiation lead to the zonalization of atmo-
spheric circulation (BUCHA,1983) .
Changes in carbon dioxide concentration are believed to be
one of the main factors which influenced and influence the tem-
perature fluctuations on the globe_ high. concentration of CO_z
was at the time of interglacials and low CO 9 during glacials.
But it is of course also possible that the _olar activity influ-
enced global temperature which could cause changes in the CO 2
concentration.
CONCLUS ION
There is no doubt that the antropogenic effect, especially
during the past 40 years, plays an important role. Our task,howe-
ver, is to distinguish between antropogenic effect in the atmo-
sphere due to human activities and natural climatic fluctuations
influencing biological systems. As can be seen in Fig. 4, the
increase in global temperature during the past iOO years is in
[elatively good coincidence with the increase in geomagnetic
<corpuscular) activity. That's why we can conclude that it could
have been the increase in temperature on the northern hemisphere,
due to the processes occurring in the auroral oval under enhanced
corpuscular radiation <RUCI{A, 1988 )which led to an increased at-
mospheric concentration of CO_ in the past. Eoth processes, i.e.
antropogenic and solar activity effects, should be therefore in-
tensively studied due to their important role for elucidating the
past and present global change mainly in temperature, climate and
biological systems.
REFERENCES
Dates, J. R., Dynamics of Stationary Ultra-Long Waves in Middle
Latitudes. Quart.J.Roy.Meteor. Soc., 103,397-430, 1977.
Bucha, V., Direct Relations between Solar Activity and Atmosphe-
ric Circulation, its Effect on Changes of %$eather and Climate,
Studia geoph, et geod., 27, 19-45, 1983.
Hucha, V., Mechanism for Linking Solar Activity to Weather-Scale
Effects, Climate Changes and Glaciations in the Northern Hemisphe-
re,in Climatic Changes on a Yearly to Millennial Easis,Eds. N.A.
20
A, I |
°° ,_/_/i /_/i' '%,
vil/'i20 ' ' "
A II I _ I I I : i v , •/Vk A/ill ui i
15 _/ I "
" l'l\J_ i ' IbI _ i !
_, " _ , , ,
10 I ' ,
I I
, ', ; :"_._ /k /',
I I
, f-v-' ! vk/i\ ^#_
_T , ', I _ ,, \ /'_r =(°c3 : i,/ :, i'V :
I I
-o.2, ,,.. ,, / ; i :
I I 0 I I/i\ /\#, : co2 ! !
/ !\,,) _i _ fpM_ : c
! ! !i ,, w ,, : 346i', ;.."
.o.4., r'W ! i i l',
I I I
I I I ,
: I I J '..,_/_
t I I I-o_ ' ____L...... :.... 3oo'_, "
...... ,1__- I
, I
1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980
Fig. 4
a/ Changes in geomagnetic activity (aa indices) - five years
gliding averages.
b/ Glob_l surface air temperature change (five year running
mean for the past cent,]ry, with zero point defined as the
1951-1980 mean. The 1988 point compares the January-May 1988
temperature to the mean for the same 5 months in 1951-1980(HANSEN).
c/ Changes in the atmospheric CO 2 concentration,observed increase
in atmospheric carbon dioxide,resulting in part fro_ human ac-
tivities.
21
Morner and W. Karl4n, D.Reidel Publ. Co., 415-448, 1984.
Bucha, V., Causes of Climate Changes, Adv. Space Res., 6,10,77-
82, 1986.
Bucha, V., Influence of Solar Activity on Atmospheric Circula-
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Ducha, V. and P. Hejda, Vazby mezi kr_tkodobgmi zm_nami geomag-
netick4 aktivity a teploty, Vztahy Slunce-Zem_ III, 155-160,
Praha 1988.
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Hines, C. 0., A Possible Mechanism for the Production of Sun-Wea-
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Planetary Waves in Winter in Relation to the Polar Night Jet
Intensity. Geophys. Res. Lett., 3, 177-180, 1976.


Effects of corpuscular radiation on weather and climate

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