Secular variation of activity in comets 2P/Encke and 9P/Tempel 1

Abstract

We compare production rates of H20 derived from International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE) spectra from multiple apparitions of 2 comets, 2P/Encke and 9P/Tempel 1, whose orbits are in near-resonance with that of the Earth. Since model-induced errors are primarily a function of observing geometry, the close geometrical matches afforded by the resonance condition results in the cancellation of such errors when taking ratios of production rates. Giving careful attention to the variation of model parameters with solar activity, we find marginal evidence of change in 2P/Encke: a 1-sigma pre-perihelion decrease averaging 4%/revolution over 4 apparitions from 1980-1994, and a 1-sigma post-perihelion increase of 16%/revolution for 2 successive apparitions in 1984 and 1987. We find for 9P/Tempel 1, however, a 7-sigma decrease of 29%/revolution over 3 apparitions from 1983-1994, even after correcting for a tracking problem which made the fluxes systematically low. We speculate on a possible association of the character of long-term brightness variations with physical properties of the nucleus, and discuss implications for future research