Comprehensive Analysis of Two Downburst-Related Aircraft Accidents

Abstract

Although downbursts have been identified as the major cause of a number of aircraft takeoff and landing accidents, only the 1985 Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) and the more recent (July 1994) Charlotte, North Carolina, landing accidents provided sufficient onboard recorded data to perform a comprehensive analysis of the downburst phenomenon. The first step in the present analysis was the determination of the downburst wind components. Once the wind components and their gradients were determined, the degrading effect of the wind environment on the airplane's performance was calculated. This wind-shear-induced aircraft performance degradation, sometimes called the F-factor, was broken down into two components F(sub 1) and F(sub 2), representing the effect of the horizontal wind gradient and the vertical wind velocity, respectively. In both the DFW and Charlotte cases, F(sub 1) was found to be the dominant causal factor of the accident. Next, the aircraft in the two cases were mathematically modeled using the longitudinal equations of motion and the appropriate aerodynamic parameters. Based on the aircraft model and the determined winds, the aircraft response to the recorded pilot inputs showed good agreement with the onboard recordings. Finally, various landing abort strategies were studied. It was concluded that the most acceptable landing abort strategy from both an analytical and pilot's standpoint was to hold constant nose-up pitch attitude while operating at maximum engine thrust