Employment ; Minorities - Employment ; Federal Reserve District, 10th

Chad R. Wilkerson

Megan D. Williams

English

Research Papers in Economics

Minorities in the tenth District: 
Are they reADy for the Jobs of the future?
Chad R. Wilkerson, Assistant Vice President and Oklahoma City Branch Executive 
and Megan D. Williams, Associate Economist
2007
                                2 0 0 7   •  Vo l   I I      Issue II 
he Tenth Federal Reserve District is becoming 
increasingly diverse, with racial and ethnic 
minorities making up a quarter of the region’s
population. These groups are expected to grow even larger 
in the years ahead. It is becoming increasingly important to 
understand the current economic conditions of minorities and 
their ability to contribute to future regional economic growth. 
Most minority groups in the Tenth District remain 
heavily concentrated in low-paying occupations, primarily 
due to their lower educational levels.1  As a result, the 
median pay for the region’s Hispanics, blacks, and Native 
Americans, in particular, lags considerably. In the years 
ahead, jobs requiring postsecondary education are expected 
to grow much faster than jobs requiring less education, a 
trend that threatens to leave some minority groups behind. 
The outlook for boosting regional minority education 
is somewhat mixed. Minority enrollment and especially 
graduation rates at four-year colleges and universities in 
Tenth District states are below average. Research suggests 
that raising such numbers takes considerable time and 
resources. Nevertheless, minority presence in the region’s 
associate degree and vocational programs is sizable, and 
jobs requiring such degrees are expected to increase rapidly 
in the years ahead. Policymakers may be wise to continue 
to focus resources on minorities attending community 
colleges and vocational schools, in addition to boosting the 
ability of minorities to achieve higher levels of education 
more generally. 
The TenTh DisTricT’s minoriTy workforce
A number of minority groups have sizable presences 
in the Tenth District. The largest minority group in the 
region is Hispanics, with 12 percent of total regional 
population in 2005, followed by blacks (6 percent), Native 
Americans (2.5 percent), and Asians (1.7 percent). The 
highest concentrations of minorities in the region can be 
found in northern New Mexico and southern Colorado 
(mostly Hispanic and Native American), eastern and 
southwestern Oklahoma (all races), and southwestern 
Kansas (primarily Hispanic), as well as in most of the 
region’s largest metropolitan areas (Map 1). Denver, Kansas 
City, Oklahoma City, and Albuquerque, in particular, have 
sizable minority populations. 
Since 1970, the proportion of racial and ethnic 
minorities in the Tenth District has roughly doubled, 
reaching 25 percent in 2005. Minority growth in the region 
has been especially rapid since 1990, exceeding 3 percent 
annually, compared with less than 0.5 percent for the 
Tpag e   2
presence in management positions, lag those of non-
Hispanic whites by a slight margin as well.
The intermediate-term outlook for minority 
jobs is equally as bleak. The growth of jobs held by 
the region’s Hispanics, blacks, and Native Americans 
is projected to be average to slightly below average.2  
Moreover, while higher-paying jobs for non-Hispanic 
whites are expected to grow faster than lower-paying 
jobs, this is less true for Hispanics, blacks, and Native 
Americans. As a result, the median earnings of these 
groups could lag further behind in the years ahead, 
unless current and future minority workers are able to 
move into higher-paying occupations. 
minoriTy eDucaTion anD The jobs  
of The fuTure
A number of factors may contribute to the 
concentration of minorities in lower-paying 
occupations. Some examples often cited include labor 
market discrimination, lack of geographic mobility, 
and differing degrees of immigrant assimilation. Many 
studies show that each of these factors can explain part 
of the differing labor market outcomes across races.3  
However, most research shows that the overarching 
reason minorities remain concentrated in lower-paying 
occupations is they have less education.4  And economic 
forecasters predict that the importance of postsecondary 
map 1
minoriTy share of populaTion, 2000 
TenTh DisTricT counTies
>25%
10-25%
4-10%
<4%
charT 1
employmenT in high-paying occupaTions, 2000 
TenTh DisTricT sTaTes
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Management occupations
(average U.S. salary: $75,443)
Professional occupations
(average U.S. salary: $56,023)
Percent of race or ethnic group employment
All Races
Hispanic
Black*
Native
American*
Asian*
White*
*Non-Hispanic 
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
district’s non-Hispanic white population. Census 
projections call for continued rapid growth for 
minorities in the years ahead. Such strong recent 
growth has been driven in part by the sizable 
immigration of Hispanics to Kansas, Missouri, 
Nebraska, and Oklahoma. In addition, all minority 
groups in the region continue to have higher 
birthrates than non-Hispanic whites. 
As in the past, district minorities typically 
work at lower-paying jobs—for example, in 
production and services. In 2000, the district’s 
Hispanics, blacks, and Native Americans worked 
in management positions—the highest-paying 
occupational group—but at only slightly more 
than half the rate of all races combined (Chart 
1). And these minorities’ presence in high-paying 
professional occupations—such as doctors, lawyers, 
and scientists—also lagged markedly. 
Management and professional jobs account for 
about a third of total employment in the district. 
Thus, the median earnings of Hispanics, blacks, 
and Native Americans lag the district average by 
15 percent to 25 percent. The median earnings 
of Asians in the district, who also have a smaller 
Source: U.S. Census Bureaueducation for workers’ job prospects will continue to 
increase in the years ahead.
The education of Hispanics, blacks, and Native 
Americans in the Tenth District lags the overall regional 
average by a sizable margin, especially at higher levels (Chart 
2). Moreover, the gap at the bachelor’s degree and above 
level—the level required for many of the highest-paying 
occupations—widened during the 1990s. For example, 
while the share of the region’s overall population with 
bachelor’s degrees rose by more than 4 percentage points 
from 1990 to 2000, the percentage increase among blacks 
was less than 3 percent, and Hispanics showed no increase 
at all.5  People of Asian descent in the region, by contrast, 
have slightly higher-than-average educational attainment, 
especially at the graduate degree level.
The importance of postsecondary education for 
workers’ job prospects is expected to rise in the years 
ahead. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 
jobs requiring vocational awards or higher degrees are 
expected to grow considerably faster through 2014 than 
jobs requiring a high school diploma or less (Chart 3). 
Specifically, jobs requiring postsecondary education 
are expected to grow from 1.6 percent to 2.7 percent 
annually, depending on education level. In contrast, 
jobs requiring only on-the-job training or previous work 
experience are expected to grow just 0.8 percent to 1.1 
percent annually.
Notably, however, projected job growth is not 
proportionately higher with each additional level of 
education. For example, jobs requiring doctoral degrees 
are expected to grow fastest, but jobs requiring associate 
degrees are expected to grow the next strongest. Some 
of the associate-degree jobs projected to grow the fastest 
include dental hygienists, legal assistants, medical records 
technicians, and computer support specialists. 
It is also notable that the outlook for jobs requiring 
vocational awards—the first level of postsecondary 
education—is considerably better than the outlook for 
jobs requiring on-the-job training or work experience in 
other fields, jobs typically filled by high school graduates or 
dropouts. Some vocational award occupations expected to 
grow the most in coming years include emergency medical 
technicians, appraisers and assessors, security and fire alarm 
installers, licensed practical nurses, and hairdressers. 
Clearly, the completion of some type of postsecondary 
education will be an important factor in Tenth District 
workers’ own future economic success and thus also to 
the success of the overall regional economy. So unless the 
educational attainment of the largest minority groups in the 
region increases, these groups’ future economic success and 
contributions could be constrained. 
Close investigation of educational attainment data by 
race and age reveals very little difference in the educational 
attainment of older minorities in the district relative to 
younger minorities. This would suggest that the overall 
pag e   3
charT 2
posTseconDary eDucaTional aTTainmenT, 2000
TenTh DisTricT sTaTes  
(populaTion ageD 20 anD olDer)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
American*
Native Asian*
Percent
Some
college or 
associate
degree
Bachelor's
degree
Master's
degree
Doctoral or 
professional
degree
All Races White* Hispanic Black*
*Non-Hispanic 
Source: U.S. Census Bureau
charT 3
annual projecTeD u.s. job growTh, 2004-2014, 
by primary eDucaTion or Training requiremenTs
(rankeD by Degree anD meDian salary)
0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0
Short-Term on the Job Training ($21,160)
Moderate-Term on the Job Training ($29,240)
Long-Term on the Job Training ($34,960)
Work Experience in a Related Field ($43,670)
Postsecondary Vocational Award ($33,410)
  Associate Degree ($40,260)
Bachelor's Degree ($50,360)
Master's Degree ($51,080)
Bachelor's Degree or Higher w/ Work Exp ($67,430)
Doctoral Degree ($68,950)
First Professional Degree ($94,930)
Percent
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statisticspag e   4
educational attainment of the region’s minorities is unlikely 
to change considerably in the years ahead due simply 
to retirement of less-educated workers. But what about 
minorities just preparing for or entering the workforce?  Are 
they being trained for the fast-growing, high-paying jobs of 
the future?
are The region’s colleges graDuaTing  
enough minoriTies?
Recent minority enrollment and graduation statistics 
show that minorities are generally well-represented at 
two-year-and-under institutions in the region—but not 
at institutions providing higher levels of education. For 
example, for the 2003-04 school year, blacks and Native 
Americans had high enrollment levels at two-year-and-
under colleges in Tenth District states. Each group had 
a larger presence at such schools than their college-age 
population share (Chart 4). Both groups also have roughly 
average enrollment numbers at four-year institutions in 
the region. In the case of blacks, however, the presence 
of several historically black colleges in Missouri and 
Oklahoma may provide an extra boost to these numbers.6  
On the other hand, college-age Hispanics in the 
region are generally not well-represented at postsecondary 
institutions, especially at four-year universities. This is 
likely due in part, of course, to many recent immigrants 
not having the prior educational background necessary for 
postsecondary education. Research shows that immigrants’ 
educational attainment and overall economic success tends 
to increase markedly by the second and third generations.
Data on degrees granted to minorities in the region 
are generally less encouraging than the enrollment data. 
Most minority groups’ graduation rates from colleges 
and universities in Tenth District states during the 2002-
03 school year were below average and were also lower 
than comparable enrollment rates, suggesting minority 
completion of advanced schooling may also lag (Chart 
5). The exception to the trend was Asians, who received 
similar numbers of bachelor’s degree and higher awards 
from institutions in the region as their college-age 
population share.
Overall, the lower graduation rates than enrollment 
rates of minorities from regional colleges and universities 
charT 4
minoriTy share of populaTion (ageD 18-34) anD 
college enrollmenT in TenTh DisTricT sTaTes,
2003-2004 school year 
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Percent Share
Population
Hispanic Black* Native American* Asian*
Trade/Vocational
School
2 Year 
University
4 Year
University
*Non-Hispanic 
Source: U.S. Department of Education
charT 5
minoriTy share of populaTion (ageD 20-34) anD 
college Degrees granTeD in TenTh DisTricT 
sTaTes, 2002-03 school year
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Hispanic Black* Native American* Asian*
Percent Share
Population
Associate
Degrees
Bachelor's
Degrees
Graduate
Degrees
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
*Non-Hispanic 
Source: U.S. Department of Education
present an unwelcome trend. It is encouraging, though, 
that minorities have a sizable presence in two-year-and-
under postsecondary programs in the region. Still, to close 
the sizable earnings gaps that most minority groups in 
the region have, they will need to achieve further levels of 
education. 
can public policy help enhance minoriTy 
eDucaTional aTTainmenT?
Most minority groups in the Tenth District currently 
have less earnings ability than non-Hispanic whites, and 
the intermediate-term outlook for jobs held by minorities is not encouraging. The key factor, of course, is education. Is 
there a role for public policy in helping minorities gain the 
education they need to increase their economic success and 
contribute more fully to the regional economy?
To be sure, policies can help provide financial resources 
for minority high school students to attend four-year-and- 
higher colleges and universities. Such policies are valuable 
because the majority of college graduates tend to stay 
in the state in which they graduate.7 Nevertheless, most 
research suggests that perhaps the best focus of resources for 
increasing ultimate educational attainment is to ensure that 
students receive educational, family, and financial support 
early in life.8  
As such, policies that encourage early childhood 
education, such as public preschool programs, can provide 
both early exposure to teaching for young students and 
increased ability for parents to work. Some analysts suggest 
this may be the most beneficial strategy in raising the long-
term educational attainment of minorities in the region.
Policies designed to increase early education efforts, 
however, typically take considerable time and resources to 
reap ultimate benefits. Thus, a more immediate angle of 
attack might be to focus on the positive finding that jobs 
requiring degrees from community colleges and vocational 
schools are expected to grow rapidly in the years ahead. This 
focus seems particularly prudent, given that graduates of 
such schools tend to stay in their state of graduation more 
often than graduates of four-year schools.9  
In short, jobs requiring associate degrees and vocational 
awards typically pay less than bachelor degree and higher 
jobs—but achieving just one or two additional levels of 
education beyond high school can greatly enhance job 
and earnings prospects for minorities. Some minority 
groups already have sizable presence in two-year-and-
under postsecondary programs. But policies that promote 
further minority enrollment in, and graduation from, such 
programs appear likely to pay valuable dividends.
enDnoTes
  
1  The Tenth Federal Reserve District includes the entire states of Colorado, 
Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Wyoming, plus the northern half of New 
Mexico and western third of Missouri.
2  Wilkerson and Williams.
3  Anderson and Shapiro; Darity and Mason; Fix and Struyk; Borjas; 
Chiswick and Miller; Hurst.
4  Holzer; O’Neill and O’Neill.
5  The immigration of large numbers of unskilled Hispanics to the District 
during the 1990s undoubtedly contributed to this trend. While Hispanics’ 
overall earnings are likely to be held down as a result, past research has 
shown that by the third generation, Mexican workers’ wages, for example, 
were similar to the overall average for people with similar human capital 
traits (Trejo). 
6  For example, Langston University in Oklahoma and Harris-Stowe College 
and Lincoln University in Missouri each had over 800 black students 
enrolled. These totals accounted for more than 30 percent of each of these 
states’ black four-year student populations and for more than 20 percent 
of the entire region’s black four-year student population.
7  Data from 2001 reveal that, nationally, approximately 70 percent of 
college graduates were still living in their college’s state one year after 
graduation. This share varies somewhat across the Tenth District, but the 
majority of recent graduates were still residing in the same state the year 
after graduation. 
8  Altonji and Dunn; Cameron and Heckman; Neal and Johnson.
9  For example, a 1998 study by the state of Oklahoma showed that while 
retention rates of four-year institutions in the state was 74 percent, 
retention at two-year schools was somewhat higher, at 84 percent.
pag e   5references
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Characteristics on the Return to Education,” The Review of Economics 
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Anderson, Deborah, and David Shapiro. 1996. “Racial Differences in Access to 
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Cameron, Stephen V., and James J. Heckman. 2001. “The Dynamics of 
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Journal of Political Economy, vol. 109, no. 3,  pp. 455-99. 
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pag e   6
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Minorities in the Tenth District: are they ready for the jobs of the future?

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Minorities in the Tenth District: are they ready for the jobs of the future?

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