Endogenous Versus Exogenous Growth Facing a Fertility Shock

Abstract

This paper simulates the impact of a permanent fertility shock on economic growth, using endogenous versus exogenous growth OLG models. An endogenous growth model, with education as the engine of growth, dampens the negative impact of a decline in fertility on growth when compared with an exogenous growth model. This result stems from the rise in education levels brought about by the expectation of an increase in the discounted value of labour earnings.Human capital; education; fertility; endogenous growth; simulation