Dynamics and optimal control of Ebola transmission

Abstract

A major Ebola outbreak occurs in West Africa since March 2014, being the deadliest epidemic in history. As an infectious disease epidemiology, Ebola is the most lethal and is moving faster than in previous outbreaks. On 8 August 2014, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak a public health emergency of international concern. Last update on 7 July 2015 by WHO reports 27 609 cases of Ebola with a total of 11 261 deaths. In this work, we present a mathematical description of the spread of Ebola virus based on the SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infective-Recovered) model and optimal strategies for Ebola control. In order to control the propagation of the virus and to predict the impact of vaccine programmes, we investigate several strategies of optimal control of the spread of Ebola: control infection by vaccination of susceptible; minimize exposed and infected; reduce Ebola infection by vaccination and education.Comment: This is a preprint of a paper whose final and definite form will be published in 'Mathematics in Computer Science', Birkhauser Mathematics, Springer, ISSN 1661-8270 (print), ISSN 1661-8289 (electronic). Submitted 16-July-2015; Accepted, after a revision, 10-Mar-2016. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1512.0339