A Methodological Analysis of Complex Dynamics of Grain Prices

Abstract

A model of the wheat secondary market pricing mechanism is developed in the paper. The study is based on the data of agricultural relative stability in the period of 2000–2006. An adaptive model is constructed by combining several standard time-series ones. It allows assessing the pricing situation in the future by taking into account both seasonal fluctuations and specifics of the current year.wheat market; seasonal fluctuations