The prediction of stellar occultations by Transneptunian objects and Centaurs
is a difficult challenge that requires accuracy both in the occulted star
position as for the object ephemeris. Until now, the most used method of
prediction involving tens of TNOs/Centaurs was to consider a constant offset
for the right ascension and for the declination with respect to a reference
ephemeris. This offset is determined as the difference between the most recent
observations of the TNO and the reference ephemeris. This method can be
successfully applied when the offset remains constant with time. This paper
presents an alternative method of prediction based on a new accurate orbit
determination procedure, which uses all the available positions of the TNO from
the Minor Planet Center database plus sets of new astrometric positions from
unpublished observations. The orbit determination is performed through a
numerical integration procedure (NIMA), in which we develop a specific
weighting scheme. The NIMA method was applied for 51 selected TNOs/Centaurs.
For this purpose, we have performed about 2900 new observations during
2007-2014. Using NIMA, we succeed in predicting the stellar occultations of 10
TNOs and 3 Centaurs between 2013 and 2015. By comparing the NIMA and JPL
ephemerides, we highlighted the variation of the offset between them with time.
Giving examples, we show that the constant offset method could not accurately
predict 6 out of the 13 observed positive occultations successfully predicted
by NIMA. The results indicate that NIMA is capable of efficiently refine the
orbits of these bodies. Finally, we show that the astrometric positions given
by positive occultations can help to further refine the orbit of the TNO and
consequently the future predictions. We also provide the unpublished
observations of the 51 selected TNOs and their ephemeris in a usable format by
the SPICE library.Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures, accepted in A&