In a recent article [J. Chem. Phys., 143, 094106 (2015)], we have introduced a novel graph-based sampling scheme which can be used to generate chemical reaction paths in many-atom systems in an efficient and highly-automated manner. The main goal of this work is to demonstrate how this approach, when combined with direct kinetic modelling, can be used to determine the mechanism and phenomenological rate law of a complex catalytic cycle, namely cobalt-catalyzed hydroformylation of ethene. Our graph-based sampling scheme generates 31 unique chemical products and 32 unique chemical reaction pathways; these sampled structures and reaction paths en- able automated construction of a kinetic network model of the catalytic system when combined with density functional theory (DFT) calculations of free energies and resul- tant transition-state theory rate constants. Direct simulations of this kinetic network across a range of initial reactant concentrations enables determination of both the re- action mechanism and the associated rate law in an automated fashion, without the need for either pre-supposing a mechanism or making steady-state approximations in kinetic analysis. Most importantly, we find that the reaction mechanism which emerges from these simulations is exactly that originally proposed by Heck and Breslow; fur- thermore, the simulated rate law is also consistent with previous experimental and computational studies, exhibiting a complex dependence on carbon monoxide pres- sure. While the inherent errors of using DFT simulations to model chemical reactivity limit the quantitative accuracy of our calculated rates, this work confirms that our automated simulation strategy enables direct analysis of catalytic mechanisms from first principles
