The impact of the global financial crisis on output performance across the European Union: vulnerability and resilience.

Abstract

This paper uses regression analyses to explain the different output performance in the 27 countries in the EU based on measures of their pre-existing vulnerability and resilience. Rapid financial deepening and high financial leverage, both domestically and externally, were followed by larger output losses during the crisis. The level of financial depth, on the other hand, did not affect output negatively. A large degree of trade openness was associated with weaker output performance, possibly because of falling export demand during the crisis. Finally, government deficits and debt stocks do not seem have impacted negatively on output. The Baltic States stand out as having much explanatory power in the sample due to their large output losses during the crisis.global financial crisis, contagion, business cycles, GDP