Matthew H. LoRusso

Paul M. Sommers

English

Research Papers in Economics

 
 
 
BABE: THE SULTAN OF PITCHING STATS? 
by 
 
 
 
 
Matthew H. LoRusso 
Paul M. Sommers 
 
 
 
August  2010 
 
 
 
 
 
MIDDLEBURY COLLEGE ECONOMICS DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 10-30 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS 
MIDDLEBURY COLLEGE 
MIDDLEBURY, VERMONT 05753 
 
http://www.middlebury.edu/~econ 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
                                                                                                                                                            2                          
 
 
 
 
 
BABE: THE SULTAN OF PITCHING STATS? 
 
 
 
 
 
by 
 
 
 
 
 
Matthew H. LoRusso 
Paul M. Sommers 
 
 
 
 
 
 
Department of Economics 
Middlebury College 
Middlebury, Vermont 05753 
psommers@middlebury.edu                                                                                                                                                            3                          
 
BABE: THE SULTAN OF PITCHING STATS? 
 
 
“I Got You Babe” 
                                                                                    — Sonny & Cher, 1965 
 
  There is no shortage of baseball metrics.  Perhaps the most popular measure of pitching 
performance is the earned run average (ERA).  ERA is equal to the number of earned runs a pitcher gives 
up in a nine-inning game.  An alternative measure of pitcher performance is the number of walks plus hits  
allowed by a pitcher divided by the number of innings pitched (with the acronym WHIP).  Since singles 
and extra-base hits are treated alike, WHIP is somewhat flawed.  A relative newcomer to the fan’s kitbag of 
statistical tools is the BABE, which unlike WHIP, adds the number of total bases a pitcher gives up to the 
number of walks allowed and divides this sum by the number of batters faced.
1,2  More precisely, the 
BABE is given by: 
BB AB
BB TB


 
where TB denotes the opposing team’s total bases, BB is the opponent’s bases on balls or walks,  and AB 
represents the opponent’s number of at bats.  The lower the BABE, the better the pitcher’s performance. 
  In this brief research note, we examine all 369 games in all World Series played between 1946 and 
2009.  Postseason data on total bases, walks, and at bats (gleaned from the box scores) of each game for 
each team each year are from www.baseball-reference.com .  How well does this defensive measure alone 
predict outcomes?  Were the BABEs of winning teams in the World Series significantly lower than the 
BABEs of their opponents?  Did the series (or individual game) winner have the lower BABE more than 
half the time?  And, have the BABEs of winning or losing teams in the World Series changed between the 
pre-free agency (1946-1976) and post-free agency (1977-2009) periods? 
  Table 1 shows the BABEs of the eventual winner and loser in each World Series between 1946 and 
2009.  Of the 63 World Series, the eventual series winner had the lower BABE two-thirds of the time.  All 
but one of the 21 exceptions (11 American League or AL series winners, 10 National League or NL series winners) involved a 6- or 7-game series.  Table 2 shows that in four-game sweeps or a World Series that 
ended in only five games, the eventual series winner (both before and after 1977, the beginning of free 
agency) had significantly lower average BABEs.
3  In a 6- or 7-game series, the average BABEs of winners 
and losers were indistinguishable (at the .05 level of significance).  Between 1946-1976 and 1977-2009, the 
BABEs of losing teams (regardless of the length of the series) generally rose, especially for teams that were 
swept in four games. 
  Of the 369 games played in a World Series between 1946 and 2009, an individual game winner had 
the lower BABE 83.2 percent (or 307/369) of the time.
4,5  Table 3 shows that individual game winners had 
significantly smaller BABEs than game losers over the entire 64-year period, as well as in the two shorter 
sub-periods.  One would think that managers used relief pitchers more frequently between 1977 and 2009 
than they did in the earlier period (when starting pitchers were expected to pace themselves for a full game). 
That is, the rise in relief pitching should have a negative impact on the opponent’s long-ball hitting.  
BABEs should be lower now than they were before.  Yet, BABEs of winners and losers are, on average, 
significantly higher in the 1977-2009 period than they were in the earlier period, especially for AL winners 
and NL losers.  Finally, there appears to be little (if any) home field impact on BABEs.  The BABE of a 
home win (loss) is no different from the BABE of a road win (loss) [p = .750 (p = .945)].  Curiously, in the 
more recent period, when NL teams lose on the road (playing in an AL ballpark under AL rules which 
allow for designated hitters), the average BABE of NL team losers is significantly higher than the average 
BABE of AL team losers (p = .033). 
Concluding Remarks 
 
  For pitchers, games won per season, the strikeout-to-walk ratio, and ERA are among the 
performance measures that first come to mind.  WHIP is less common.  And, the newborn BABE (bases 
per batter) is shown to be closely related to club wins in World Series play.  In particular, the BABEs of 
winning teams in the World Series were significantly lower than the BABEs of losing teams since 1946, 
both before and after free agency, a result that underscores the belief that pitching wins championships.     
                                                                                                                                                             5                                               
 
Table 1.   BABEs, World Series, 1946-2009 
 
 
    Number of  Winner’s  Winner’s  Loser’s    Number of   Winner’s  Winner’s  Loser’s 
 Year  Games  Affiliation  BABE
1 BABE  Year  Games  Affiliation  BABE
1 BABE 
 
  1946 7  NL  .3882  .4183  1978 6  AL  .4475 .4244 
  1947 7  AL  .3906  .5000  1979 7  NL  .4015  .4719 
 1948  6  AL  .3793 .3399  1980  6  NL  .5279  .4444 
  1949 5  AL  .3955  .4121  1981 6  NL  .4734 .4450 
  1950 4  AL  .3037  .3649  1982 7  NL  .4436  .4566 
  1951 6  AL  .3927  .4489  1983 5  AL  .3373  .4080 
  1952 7  AL  .3852  .4563  1984 5  AL  .4011  .4890 
  1953 6  AL  .5175  .5398  1985 7  AL  .3248  .4470 
  1954 4  NL  .3791  .4014  1986 7  NL  .4601  .4330 
  1955 7  NL  .4467  .5000  1987 7  AL  .3551  .4869 
  1956 7  AL  .3765  .4840  1988 5  NL  .3086  .4389 
 1957  7  NL  .4325  .4089 1989  4  AL  .3803  .6280 
  1958 7  AL  .4045  .4213  1990 4  NL  .3605  .5223 
 1959  6  NL  .4292  .4233 1991  7  AL  .4764  .4466 
 1960  7  NL  .5575  .3862 1992  6  AL  .3591  .4159 
  1961 5  AL  .3371  .5132  1993 6  AL  .5041  .5628 
 1962  7  AL  .3866  .3388 1994  *
2
  * * * 
  1963 4  NL  .2687  .4063  1995 6  NL  .3818  .4862   
 1964  7  NL  .4773  .4186 1996  6  AL  .4330 .3689 
  1965 7  NL  .3846  .4211  1997 7  NL  .5122 .4965 
  1966 4  AL  .2707  .3969  1998 4  AL  .4247  .5409 
 1967  7  NL  .4059  .3984 1999  4  AL  .3517  .4667 
  1968 7  AL  .4462  .4535  2000 5  AL  .3817  .4804 
  1969 5  NL  .2791  .3600  2001 7  NL  .3347  .4335 
  1970 5  AL  .4078  .5602  2002 7  AL  .5547 .5112 
  1971 7  NL  .3556  .4167  2003 6  NL  .4629  .3456 
 1972  7  AL  .3725  .3568 2004  4  AL  .3623  .5556 
 1973  7  AL  .4007  .3829 2005  4  AL  .4063  .5325 
 1974  5  AL  .4023 .3924  2006  5  NL  .3669 .4254 
  1975 7  NL  .4424  .4461  2007 4  AL  .3916  .5813 
  1976 4  NL  .3401  .5616  2008 5  NL  .3554  .5538 
 1977  6  AL  .4554 .4398  2009  6  AL  .5273  .4491 
1Numbers in italics indicate that the winner’s BABE was greater than the loser’s BABE (occurred 21 times, 11 AL winners, 10 NL winners). 
2The 1994-95 strike caused the cancellation of the 1994 World Series.                                                                                                                                                             6                          
 
Table 2.  Difference between BABEs, 
by Length of Series, 1946-2009 
 
 
 
           p-value 
       Average  BABE    on 
  Group 1  Group 2  Group 1    Group 2  difference
1 
     
 
4-game series 
 
 Winner  Loser  .3533  .4965  <.001 
  Winner, 1946-1976  Loser, 1946-1976  .3124  .4262  .015 
  Winner, 1977-2009  Loser, 1977-2009  .3825  .5467  <.001 
 
 
5-game series 
 
 Winner  Loser  .3611  .4576  <.001 
  Winner, 1946-1976  Loser, 1946-1976  .3644  .4476  .042 
  Winner, 1977-2009  Loser, 1977-2009  .3585  .4659  .002 
 
 
6-game series 
 
 Winner  Loser  .4494  .4381  .738 
  Winner, 1946-1976  Loser, 1946-1976  .4297  .4380  .356 
  Winner, 1977-2009  Loser, 1977-2009  .4572  .4382  .788 
 
 
7-game series 
 
 Winner    Loser  .4199  .4381  .092 
  Winner, 1946-1976  Loser, 1946-1976  .4149  .4240  .293 
  Winner, 1977-2009  Loser, 1977-2009  .4292  .4648  .084 
 
 
1Paired one-tailed t-tests under the alternative hypothesis:  Average of Group 1 < Average of Group 2.                                                                                                                                                            7                          
 
 
Table 3.  Difference between BABEs, 
Individual Games in World Series, 
1946-2009 
 
 
 
           p-value 
       Average  BABE    on 
  Group 1  Group 2  Group 1    Group 2  difference
1 
     
 
  Game winner  Game loser  .3538  .4909  <.001 
  Winner, 1946-1976  Loser, 1946-1976  .3386  .4747  <.001 
  Winner, 1977-2009  Loser, 1977-2009  .3696  .5078  <.001 
 
  Winner, 1946-1976  Winner, 1977-2009  .3386  .3696  .012 
 AL Winner, 1946-1976  AL Winner, 1977-2009  .3325 .3759  .010 
 NL Winner, 1946-1976  NL Winner, 1977-2009  .3453 .3614  .381 
 
  Loser, 1946-1976  Loser, 1977-2009  .4747  .5078  .009 
  AL Loser, 1946-1976  AL Loser, 1977-2009  .4710 .5016  .113 
  NL Loser, 1946-1976  NL Loser, 1977-2009  .4781 .5125  .042 
 
  Home Win  Road Win  .4036  .3990  .750 
  AL Home Win  NL Home Win  .3981  .4099  .570 
  AL Road Win  NL Road Win  .3973  .4011  .853 
 
  Home Loss  Road Loss  .4424  .4434  .945 
  AL Home Loss  NL Home Loss  .4197  .4605  .051 
  AL Road Loss  NL Road Loss  .4396  .4467  .705 
 
  AL Road Win,  NL Road Win, 
 1946-1976  1946-1976  .3809 .3881  .801 
  AL Road Win,  NL Road Win, 
 1977-2009  1977-2009  .3966 .4270  .323 
 
  AL Road Loss,  NL Road Loss, 
 1946-1976  1946-1976  .4327 .3907  .129 
  AL Road Loss,  NL Road Loss, 
 1977-2009  1977-2009  .4469 .4972  .033 
 
1For the first three comparisons involving winners (Group 1) and Losers (Group 2), see footnote 1 
 in Table 2.  All other p-values are based on a two-tailed t-test.                                                                                                                                                            8                          
 
 
Reference 
 
 
1.  Allen St. John, “By the Numbers,” The Wall Street Journal, August 13, 2004, p. W5.                                                                                                                                                            9                          
 
Footnotes 
 
1.  The first mention of BABE appears in [1]. 
 
2.  As for baseball’s other Babe, Ruth’s career began in 1914 as a left-handed pitcher for the 
  Boston Red Sox.  In six years on the mound at Fenway Park (before that now infamous  
  sale to the New York Yankees), Babe won 89 regular season games and three World Series 
  games (one win in 1916 and two wins in 1918). 
 
3.  Between 1946 and 1976, four rule changes were introduced into baseball that would be  
  expected to affect batting and pitching performance statistics.  In 1950, the strike zone was 
  narrowed.  In 1963, the strike zone was widened.  In 1969, the strike zone was again narrowed. 
  In 1973, the American League introduced the Designated Hitter rule but the National League 
  did not.   
 
4.  The BABE of the game winner was greater than that of the loser on eight occasions in Game 1, 
  twelve in Game 2, thirteen in Game 3, and fifteen in Game 4.  (All four games were contested 63 
  times between 1946 and 2009.)  The BABE of the winner exceeded that of the loser eight times 
  in Game 5 (of 51 times Game 5 was contested) and three times each in Games 6 (40) and 7 (26). 
 
5.  BABE was equal to zero only once, in Don Larsen’s perfect game (Game 5) in the 1956 World 
  Series.  The highest value of BABE was .8837 in Game 5 of the 1991 World Series, when the 
  Atlanta Braves (the ultimate series loser) defeated the Minnesota Twins 14-5.   
    
 
 
 
    

By the Numbers,” The Wall Street Journal,

equal to zero only once, in Don Larsen’s perfect game (Game 5) in the 1956 World Series. The highest value of BABE was .8837

The BABE of the game winner was greater than that of the loser on eight occasions in Game 1, twelve in Game 2, thirteen in Game 3, and fifteen in Game 4. (All four games were contested 63 times between

The first mention of BABE

Babe: The Sultan of Pitching Stats

http://www.middlebury.edu/services/econ/repec/mdl/ancoec/1030.pdf

Babe: The Sultan of Pitching Stats

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