Alexandra A. Fox

John M. Yanchek

Paul M. Sommers

Tucker P. Donahoe

English

Research Papers in Economics

 
 
 
 
 
IS THERE A ROAD-ICE ADVANTAGE IN 
NHL SHOOTOUTS? 
by 
 
 
 
 
Alexandra A. Fox 
Tucker P. Donahoe 
John M. Yanchek 
Paul M. Sommers 
 
 
 
August  2010 
 
 
 
 
 
MIDDLEBURY COLLEGE ECONOMICS DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 10-29 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS 
MIDDLEBURY COLLEGE 
MIDDLEBURY, VERMONT 05753 
 
http://www.middlebury.edu/~econ 
 
 
                                                                                                                                             2 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
IS THERE A ROAD-ICE ADVANTAGE IN 
NHL SHOOTOUTS? 
 
 
 
 
 
by 
 
 
 
 
 
Alexandra A. Fox 
Tucker P. Donahoe 
John M. Yanchek 
Paul M. Sommers 
 
 
 
 
 
Department of Economics 
Middlebury College 
Middlebury, Vermont 05753 
psommers@middlebury.edu                                                                                                                                             3 
 
IS THERE A ROAD-ICE ADVANTAGE IN 
NHL SHOOTOUTS? 
 
 
  Following the National Hockey League’s (NHL’s) 301-day lockout in 2004-2005, the 
league made several rule changes to entice fans back to the arenas.  One such change was the 
adoption of Olympic-style shootouts at the end of a tie overtime game to determine a winner.  In 
the NHL, during regular-season games, teams play three twenty-minute periods.  If the score is 
tied at the end of regulation, the teams play an additional overtime period of not more than five 
minutes with the team scoring first the winner.  If the game remains tied at the end of a single 
five-minute overtime period, the teams proceed to a shootout.  During the shootout, teams 
alternate shots.  If the outcome is still not determined after each team takes three shots, then the 
shootout period proceeds to a “sudden death” format until one shooter scores.  The game does not 
end until each team has taken the same number of shots. 
  In the 2009-2010 NHL season there were 184 shootouts, 91 of which were won by the 
home team.  Six of these games were scoreless ties at the end of regulation.  On eighty-seven 
occasions (about half of the 178 games in which both teams had scored at least one goal), the 
team that scored last in regulation (at any point during the game) to tie the game (and force an 
overtime period and ultimately a shootout) went on to win the shootout.  The purpose of this brief 
research note is to gauge the importance of momentum carrying the team that scores last late in 
regulation (to tie the game) to a shootout victory.  If the home team is the last to score and tie the 
game in regulation in the third period or even during the final five minutes of the third period, is 
the home team more likely to win the shootout than a visiting team which accomplishes the same 
feat?  The data on NHL shootouts in the 2009-2010 regular season and box score summaries 
(including the time of each goal scored in each period) are from www.nhlshootouts.com and 
www.nhl.com .  
  All 178 shootouts (in which the game was tied at the end of regulation, other than 0-0) 
have been classified into four categories, as shown in Table 1.  The team that scored last in                                                                                                                                             4 
 
regulation during the third (and final) period of play won the shootout 38.2 percent (or 68/178) of 
the time.  The assumption that there is no relationship between the two classification criteria can 
be put in the form 
   H 0:   Winning at home and scoring last in the third period of regulation 
     are  independent 
 
   H 1: H0 is false 
 
If H0 is false and there is a home ice advantage to the team that draws even in the final period of 
play and wins the shootout, then the observed frequencies will tend to be larger than the expected 
frequencies along the diagonal of the two-way classification table.  The calculated (
2   ) statistic 
on the data presented in Table 1 is 2.165.  The probability that the chi-square test statistic will be 
as large as this (if H0 were true) is .141, and therefore H0 cannot be rejected.  That is, there is no 
conclusive evidence (with α = .05) of a home-ice advantage to a shootout victory (after the home 
team scores last in regulation during the third period to draw even).  If, however, the eventual 
shootout winner tied the game in the final five minutes of regulation, we see in Table 2 that the 
eventual shootout winner is more than likely the visiting team (p = .049).  Inspection of the 
several contributions to the calculated chi-square statistic (
2   = 3.860) shows that the observed 
frequency is greater (less) than the expected frequency in row 2, column 1 (row 1, column 1), 
enough to favor H1 at customary levels of significance. 
 
Concluding Remarks 
  Momentum is crucial to winning.  When an ice hockey team gives up a goal in the last 
five minutes of the third (and final) period of regulation, we find that the team that surrendered 
the game-tying goal nonetheless ends up winning the shootout more than 75 percent of the time. 
But, given the eventual shootout winner did score last in the final five minutes of regulation, we 
find that 60 percent of the time the shootout winner (and hence the winner of the game) is not the 
home team, but the visiting team.                                                                                                                                               5 
 
 
 
Table 1.  Two-Way Classification of Shootouts, 2009-2010, 
Eventual Shootout Winner Scored the Tying Goal in the Third Period 
 
 
 
 
  Did the Shootout Winner Score  
  the Tying Goal in the Third Period? 
 ______________________________ 
 
 Home  Team  Win?  Yes   No 
     ________________________________________________________________________ 
 
 Yes  30    61 
 
 No  38    49 
 
     ________________________________________________________________________ 
                                                                                                                                             6 
 
 
Table 2.  Two-Way Classification of Shootouts, 2009-2010, 
Eventual Shootout Winner Scored the Tying Goal  
in the Final Five Minutes of the Third Period 
 
 
 
 
  Did the Shootout Winner Score  
  the Tying Goal in the Final Five Minutes 
  of the Third Period? 
 ______________________________ 
 
 Home  Team  Win?  Yes   No 
     ________________________________________________________________________ 
 
 Yes  15    76 
 
 No  25    62 
 
     ________________________________________________________________________ 
 
 

Is There A Road-ice Advantage In NHL Shootouts?

http://www.middlebury.edu/services/econ/repec/mdl/ancoec/1029.pdf

Is There A Road-ice Advantage In NHL Shootouts?

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