The natural history of multiple sclerosis : a review of current modelling approaches /

Abstract

The highly varying course of MS has made it difficult to establish accurate prognoses about its natural history. The reliability of neurologic impairment grades obtained by clinical examinations of patients is becoming recognized as important. Current statistical methods in natural history studies of MS are essentially classical survival and linear models, applied to clinical data and with mortality, impairment, and secondary progression of MS, as outcomes. However, more sophisticated modelling attempts, in particular ones that account for the fluctuating course of MS, are rare. Stochastic and time series models are two such recent methods that have been proposed. As more complex statistical models are being called upon, it is crucial that practitioners consult with statisticians to ensure that the models are being correctly selected, applied, and interpreted