基于出口产品的泰尔指数及其新的分解方法,分析了中国国家层面和地区层面出口多样化的演变,探讨了出口多样化的“集约边际“和“扩展边际“问题,揭示了中国出口多样化演进的特征事实。分析表明,从国家层面来看,中国出口产品仍处于多样化的发展阶段,并呈现出收敛的发展态势,同时出口多样化的“扩展边际“占据主导地位;从地区层面来看,东部地区的出口多样化水平要高于中西部地区,东部地区的出口多样化以“扩展边际“为主,而中西部地区的出口多样化则以“集约边际“为主。基于1998-2009年的省际面板数据,对中国出口多样化的影响因素进行实证检验。研究发现,人力资本、国内市场规模、固定资产投资和贸易开放度等因素有利于中国出口多样化的发展。Based on Theil index of export products and its new method of decomposition,this paper analyzes the evolution of China's export diversification from the aspects of country and region and explores the"intensive margin"and "extensive margin"of export diversification to reveal the stylized facts of the evolution of China's export diversification.The results show that in the aspect of country,China is on the development stage of export diversification and it shows the trend of convergence,and China's "extensive margin"of export diversification occupies a dominant position;in the aspect of region,the export diversification of eastern China is higher than central and western China,and the export diversification of eastern China is mainly composed of "extensive margin"and the export diversification of central and western China is mainly composed of"intensive margin".Using provincial panel data during 1998—2009,this paper makes an empirical test on the determinants of China's export diversification.We find that human capital,domestic market scale,fixed assets investment and trade openness also contribute positively to the development of China's export diversification
