基于内生经济增长理论,分析并测算我国能源短期回弹效应与长期回弹效应,研究结果表明:由于能源无法直接与国际市场接轨,在较低的能源价格与能源生产效率的情况下,采取提高能源使用效率以达到减少我国能源消耗量的目的,在政策上是可行的,但该政策在执行过程中可能会落入“囚徒困境“,从而在提高能源使用效率的同时却难以降低社会能源消耗量。就宏观而言,降低能源回弹效应,减少我国能源消耗的根本途径是推动产业结构转型升级,转变经济增长方式;而直接的节能措施、政府对提高能源使用效率进行技术补贴也可以缓解囚徒困境,降低地区能源消费量。Based on endogenous growth theory,this paper analyzes the short-term and long-term rebound effect.The study shows that: in the current low energy prices and the efficiency of energy production,the attempt to improve the efficiency of energy us used to reduce China's energy total consumption of the measures are feasible,but the implementation are often trapped in a "Prisoner's Dilemma",making reduce overall energy consumption by improving energy efficiency less effective.It is necessary for Government to subsidize the enterprises which improve energy efficiency to reducing energy consumption.Experience has showed that: China's rebound effect is relatively high,but for the long term,changing the mode of economic growth and upgrading and restructuring industrial structure is the fundamental way of energy saving
