改革开放以来中国经济周期表现出某些类似于国际经济的特征:居民消费、产出与Tb/gdP之间呈明显的逆向协动性;同时,也表现出某些不同于发达国家和新兴发展中国家的特征:居民消费波动的幅度大于产出波动,就业波动较为平滑。本文试图从开放经济的角度解释我国经济周期的特征事实。又鉴于我国政府在宏观经济调控中的重要影响,为此建立了一个考虑了外生的政府支出冲击与代表流动性冲击的偏好冲击的小国开放经济三部门rbC模型来给予解释,并考察了这些机制对经济周期的影响。本文发现:上述机制对宏观经济变量波动有重要的影响;这个模型能够解释92%以上的中国经济波动特征;该模型可以合理预测各变量与Tb/gdf之间的逆向协动性,可以合理预测各变量与产出之间的相关关系,说明中国的实际经济波动是可以在小国开放经济rbC模型框架内被合理解释的。Since initiation of the reform and opening - up policy,there are many facts same with international economy:consumption and output are negative correlated with TB/GDP,and there are many facts different form international economy;firstly,consumption's volatility is more than GDP output's;secondly,employment is much smoothing.This paper tries to explain the features of China's business cycle from the perspective of open economy.To do this,in respect of the omnipresence and omnipotence of China's government in macroeconomic management,it establishes a RBC model of three sections in small open economy that incorporates government consumption shocks and preference shocks representing liquidity shocks.It finds that these economic mechanisms have important impacts on real macroeconomic variables,this model can explain about 92%of the actual volatility,and can reasonably predict the negative correlations of TB/GDP with macroeconomic variables.It implies the business cycle in China can be explained well by the RBC in the small open economy.国家自然科学基金面上项目(71172004/G020102); 2011年度教育部哲学社会科学研究后期资助重点项目(11JHQ007
