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Product Market Power and Financial Analyst Earnings Forecast

Abstract

本文研究了上市公司产品市场力量对财务分析师盈余预测行为的影响。以中国2002-2011年11857个上市公司年观测为样本,研究发现,财务分析师更倾向于关注那些具有较强产品市场力量(处于高集中度行业、产品定价力量较强或者在行业内所占市场份额较高)的上市公司,对于这类上市公司,财务分析师盈余预测的离散度更低、准确度更高。本研究不仅有助于深入理解我国财务分析师的盈余预测行为,对投资者更有效地利用财务分析师的盈余预测也具有借鉴意义。This study investigates how a firm's product market power affects the forecasting behavior of financial analysts.Using a sample of 11857 firm-year observations of China public listed companies over the period of 2002-2011, we find that financial analysts are more likely to follow companies with stronger product market power(operating in highly concentrated industries, having stronger product pricing power or higher market shares in the industry), for these types of companies, analysts can also provide earnings forecast with lower dispersion and higher accuracy.This study not only contributes to a better understanding of the earnings forecasting behavior of China financial analysts, but also provides helpful references for investors to use analysts' earnings forecast more efficiently.教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“中国上市公司内部控制评价与指数研究”(批准号:10JJD630003)的资

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