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Research on Quantitative Recognition and Influencing Factors of the Middle Income Trap

Abstract

近年来我国经济的快速发展取得了举世瞩目的成就,但随着近年来中国经济增速的放缓,外界提出了中国是否陷入“中等收入陷阱”的猜测。一个经济体一旦陷入泥潭,经济增长将会减缓甚至倒退,社会冲突日益严重,国际竞争力持续削弱。在这一背景下深入研究“中等收入陷阱”对中国如何成功跨越这道坎,实现经济的持续稳定发展具有重要的理论及现实意义。 本文在回顾国内外相关文献的基础上,首先构建经济增长收敛模型,提出了识别经济增长陷阱的量化方法。利用固定效应模型,计算收敛系数,证实了全球范围内经济出现收敛;用模型预测值与各个国家实际观测值的差值作为评判依据,得出中国目前没有落入中等收入陷阱;通过比较不同收入水平国家落入增长...The rapid development of China's economy has made remarkable achievements in recent years, but with the recent slowdown in economic growth, those on the outside have raised a conjecture that whether China has tapped into a "middle-income trap"(MIT). Once an economy falling into a trap, economic growth will slow down or even reverse, social conflict will be more serious and international competitiv...学位:经济学硕士院系专业:经济学院_统计学学号:1542012115188

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