本文以系统动力学为主要方法,对未来我国的人口总量和经济水平进行了预测,在此基础上对未来粮食、淡水和能源的需求规模进行了仿真,提炼出人口、经济与粮食、淡水和能源需求的关联模式,并进行了灵敏度分析,探讨了为确保粮食、水、能源安全所能采取的有效措施。This paper forecasts chinese population by disintegrate research and economic level in the future;simulates the demand scale of grain、freshwater and energy by system dynamic method,and then refines the correlative model of population and economy to grain、freshwater and energy,processes the sensitivity simulation.At last,it puts forward the effective measures to ensure the grain security,freshwater security and energy security.教育部人文社科重大项目(08JZD0021-D);国家人口和计划生育的十二五规划重点项目“人口、资源、环境约束下的定量分析”;浙江省自然科学基金项目(J20080147)的资
