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Range-Based Estimation of the Short Term Interest Rate Volatility

Abstract

为了提高短期利率波动估计的准确度,本文首次采用极差作为利率波动代理,对我国短期利率波动进行实证研究。相对传统的利率波动代理,极差包含更多的利率日内路径信息,能更真实地反映实际利率波动情况。我们先通过数值模拟证明采用极差作为利率波动代理的随机波动模型能准确地估计出利率动态方程中参数,蒙特卡洛模拟结果显示,相对传统随机波动模型而言,基于极差的随机波动模型估计结果更接近真实利率波动率。我们分别对1天回购利率和7天回购利率进行实证研究,采用不同的利率波动代理——传统的回归残差平方、极差和已实现波动,在随机波动模型框架下研究我国短期利率动态。实证结果表明,我国短期利率波动对利率水平高度敏感。在模型比较中...To improve the estimation of the short term interest rate volatility, we first use the range as the interest rate volatility proxy. Compared with the classical volatility proxy, the range contains more information about the interest rate roads and is more efficient. Our simulation shows that the range-based stochastic volatility models can accurately estimate parameters of the interest rate dynami...学位:经济学硕士院系专业:王亚南经济研究院_金融学(含保险学)学号:2772009115242

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