A Study on Non-tradable Share Reform of China Based on Evolutionary Games Theory

Abstract

股权分置的存在(即国有股和法人股不流通)曾是中国资本市场发展的制肘之患,为了变革这项制度,政府先后进行了国有股减持和股权分置改革这两次尝试,却取得了截然不同的效果。本文采用进化博弈论的方法对博弈参与人进行有限理性的假设,并用一个进化博弈模型将国有股减持和股权分置改革纳入统一的分析框架,以揭示两者取得不同结果的原因及其演化的动态过程。 首先,文章分析了政府和投资者的有限理性,指出政府有限理性导致的股权分置安排向市场传递了隐性担保信号,致使投资者在固有的认知偏误基础上形成政策依赖性的行为模式。 其次,文章用两部门信任模型展开对国有股减持和股权分置改革的进化博弈分析。国有股减持时期,由于政府隐性...The existence of Non-tradable Shares used to be a critical obstacle in the development of China’s capital market. State-owned Stock Reduction and Non-tradable Share Reform are both reforms aimed at solving this problem, which have led to quite different results. On the basis of previous studies on this issue, the author first makes hypothesis that participants of the games are limited rational, th...学位:经济学硕士院系专业:经济学院财政金融系_金融学(含保险学)学号:2005130090

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