自工业革命以来，人类活动产生的温室气体在大气中不断累积。温室气体浓度不断增加所导致的全球变暖，已经对全球粮食产量、人类生活和自然环境产生了严重影响。在全球变暖的大背景下，中国的气候也发生了明显变化，并影响到了中国的水资源、农业、陆地生态系统、海岸带和近海生态系统。 为了应对气候变化，中国已经做出了不懈努力，并在2009年11月正式对外宣布控制温室气体排放的量化行动目标，决定到2020年单位国内生产总值CO2排放比2005年下降40%-45%。要减缓CO2排放，要发展低碳经济，都必须从理论上回答一系列问题：中国的CO2排放量将如何增长？是什么因素驱动了中国的CO2排放量增长？针对这些驱动因素，中国应该制定什么政策来减缓CO2排放？每一种政策能取得什么样的减排效果？这些政策会对宏观经济产生什么影响？中国能否实现碳强度下降的目标？如果能实现，困难有多大？ 本文正是基于全球变暖的大背景，并针对中国应对气候变化、实现经济低碳发展需要回答的一系列理论与现实问题，研究了中国碳排放量增长的趋势及其驱动因素，并评价了能源结构调整、经济结构调整、能源价格提高和征收碳税五个政策措施对CO2减排或宏观经济的影响。主要研究结论有以下七点： 第一，自2000年以来，中国因消费化石燃料而排放的CO2持续增长，在未来10年，CO2排放量还将以年均5.1-5.2%的速度，从2010年的71.7亿吨增长到2020年的116.7-123.3亿吨。 第二，1995-2007年间，中国CO2排放量年平均增长12.4%的主要正向驱动因素为：人均GDP、交通工具数量、人口总量、经济结构、家庭平均年收入，其平均贡献分别为15.82%、4.93%、1.28%、1.14%和1.11%；负向驱动因素为：生产部门能源强度、交通工具平均运输线路、居民生活能源强度，其平均贡献分别为-8.12%、-3.29%和-1.42%。 第三，能源结构“低碳化”调整是CO2减排的有效措施。本文的预测表明，在经济中速增长情景下，没有石油消费比例目标引导、而仅有能源结构规划约束的能源结构调整，在2015年将减少CO2排放3.17亿吨，减排3.18%，在2020年将减少6.63亿吨，减排5.38%；既有石油消费比例目标引导又有能源结构规划约束的能源结构调整，在2015年将减少CO2排放3.68亿吨，减排3.84%；在2020年将减少8.13亿吨，减排6.59%。 第四，能源结构调整对中国碳强度下降目标实现的评价结果表明，在9种组合情景中的任何一种情景下，中国的碳强度目标都没有实现。但如果系统性地综合考虑技术进步、法律法规、财政金融政策、居民消费模式和森林碳汇等减排措施的共同作用，则中国碳强度目标的实现是完全可能的，但需要付出艰苦卓绝的努力。 第五，从三次产业的角度来看，中国在中短期内很难以产业结构调整实现CO2减排。但是在第二产业内部，尤其在工业部门内，通过限制一些项目的发展，淘汰落后的工艺设备和产品，依然能实现CO2减排。 第六，提高能源价格是实现CO2减排的有效市场手段。如果能源价格依照附录中所预测的速度上涨，那么在经济中速增长的情景下，因能源价格上涨所减少的CO2排放量在2015年为865万吨，在2020年为347万吨。虽然提高能源价格会导致一般价格水平上涨，如果不考虑预期等因素对价格的影响，各类能源价格上涨导致一般价格水平上涨的幅度都比较小。 第七，征收碳税虽然可以取得CO2减排的环境收益，但却会付出对行业和宏观经济负面冲击的成本。本文的模拟结果表明，在总产出减少幅度小于1%且CPI上涨幅度小于3%的约束条件下，政府应该选择的最优定额碳税税率为8.84元/吨；在总产出减少幅度小于2%且CPI上涨幅度小于6%的约束条件下，应该选择的最优税率为17.99元/吨。如果征收8.84元/吨的最优税率，则将会使得CO2减排3.92%，总产出下降0.99%，CPI上涨2.96%；如果征收17.99元/吨的最优税率，则将会使得CO2减排6.98%，总产出下降1.76%，CPI上涨5.38%。 虽然技术进步和法律法规建设等是CO2减排的重要决定因素，但由于本文更注重从能源经济学的宏观角度来探讨CO2减排问题，因此对具体的减排技术和政策设计细节没有深入讨论。这是本文的不足之处，也是下一步研究的方向。Since the industrial revolution, HGHs (greenhouse gases) due to human activities have been accumulating in the atmosphere. Global warming caused by the increase of atmospheric concentrations of HGHs has been seriously affecting the global output, human life and natural environment. The climate in China has undergone significant changes, and it has been influencing China’s water resources, agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, marine and coastal ecological systems. In order to address climate change, China has made unremitting efforts and announced a formal quantitative action target controlling greenhouse gas emissions in November 2009, which aims at cutting CO2 emissions per unit of gross domestic product by 40 to 45% in 2020 from 2005. To reduce CO2 emissions, to develop a low carbon economy, we must answer a series of questions: How will China’s CO2 emissions grow? What factors are driving the growth of China’s CO2 emissions? What policies should be developed in China to slow down the CO2 emissions? How many CO2 emissions can be reduced by carrying out each policy? What macroeconomic impacts will be caused by putting these policies in practice? Whether China can achieve the goal of carbon intensity decline? If the goal can be achieved, how much difficulty will we face? Based on the background of global warming and in order to answer a series of theoretical and practical problems in addressing climate change and developing low carbon economy in China, the dissertation studies the factors driving the growth of carbon emissions in China, and evaluates the effects of CO2 emissions reduction or macroeconomy by optimizing energy structure, adjusting economic restructure, increasing energy price and imposing a carbon tax. The main conclusions are as follows: First, since 2000, China’s CO2 emissions due to the consumption of fossil fuels have continued to grow. In the next 10 years, CO2 emissions will grow from 71.7 million tons in 2010 to 116.7-123.3 million tons in 2020 at the average annual rate of 5.1-5.2%. Second, China’s CO2 emissions experiences a 12.4% average annual growth rate during the period 1995 to 2007. The main positive driving factors for growth are per capita GDP, number of vehicle, total population, economic structure and average household income. Their respective average contributions are 15.82%, 4.93%, 1.28%, 1.14% and 1.11%. The negative driving factors are energy intensity of production sector, transportation routes length per vehicle, household energy intensity. Their respective average contributions are -8.12%, -3.29%, and -1.42%. Third, the optimization of energy mix is an effective measure in CO2 emission reduction. The prediction shows that the optimization of energy mix that without objective guidance to the ratio of oil consumption but only with the constraints of adjustment plan to energy structure will reduce 317 million tons of the CO2 in 2015, and reduce 663 million tons in 2020; the optimization of energy mix that with both objective guidance to the ratio of oil consumption and the constraints of adjustment plan to energy structure will reduce 368 million tons of the CO2 in 2015, and reduce 813 million tons in 2020. Fourth, the evaluation results show that China's carbon intensity goals can not be achieved in each of nine scenarios. However, if we systematically and comprehensively consider technological progress, laws and regulations, financial and monetary policies, consumption patterns and forest carbon emission reduction and so on, the goals of China's carbon intensity will be certainly achieved. However, arduous effort should be paid. Fifth, in the view of three industries, China is difficult to achieve CO2 emission reduction by adjusting industrial structure in the medium or short term. However, within the secondary industry, especially in the industrial sector, CO2 emission can be reduced by limiting the development of some projects, eliminate backward technology equipment and products. Sixth, to increase energy prices is the effective market instruments to achieve CO2 emission reduction. If energy prices rise according to the rate predicted by the appendix, the increase of energy prices can reduced 8.65 million tons of CO2 emissions in 2015, and reduced 3.47 million tons in 2020 in the scenario that economy grow at a moderate speed. The energy price increase has relatively weak impact on the general price level, if the effect of price expectation is not considered. Seventh, to impose a carbon tax can achieve the environmental benefits in the CO2 emission reduction, but pay the costs caused by the negative impact on the industry and macroeconomic. This simulation results show that under the constraint condition that the reduction in the total output is less than 1% and the increase in CPI is less than 3%, the optimal carbon tax rate is 8.84 yuan per ton; under the other constraint condition that the reduction in the total output is less than 2% and the increase in CPI is less than 6%, the optimal carbon tax rate is 17.99 yuan per ton. If the charge the first optimal tax rate, CO2 emissions will reduce by 3.92%, total output will fell by 0.99%, and CPI will rise by 2.96%; if charge the second optimal tax rate, CO2 emissions will reduce by 6.98%, total output will fell by 1.76%, and CPI will rise by 5.38%. Although technological advances and enacting laws and regulations are important measures to reduce CO2 emissions, this dissertation pay more attention to CO2 emissions reduction problem in the view of macroeconomics. Therefore the specific details of emission reduction technologies and policy design are not in deep discussion. This is both an inadequacy and a direction of further study.学位：经济学博士院系专业：经济学院金融系_能源经济学学号：1562007015369
