News from NERIES, SAFER, SEISTRAIN and
Other Transnational European Project

Wiemer, S.

Earth-prints Repository

Swiss 
Seismological 
Service
News from NERIES, SAFER, 
SEISTRAIN and other trans-
national European projects 
Stefan Wiemer  & 
 The earthquake statistic group at ETH Zurich. 
 The NERIES JRA2 (5) team
 The  SAFER WP5 (2) team
 The SEISTRAIN team 
Swiss 
Seismological 
Service
• Welcome from ETH Zurich – the Swiss 
Seismological Service – co-organizer of the 
5th workshop on statistical seismology in 
Erice. 
• But, the real work was done by INGV. Thank 
you Silvia, Massimo, Rodolfo & Warner  !!!!
Swiss 
Seismological 
Service
www.earthquake.ethz.ch
Swiss 
Seismological 
Service 5th Workshops on Statistical Seismology
Swiss 
Seismological 
Service
• The StatSeis ‘community’ is growing, 
because it is topical, or because we have 
meetings in the right places ? 
• What exactly IS statistical seismology ? 
• Do we include the right people ? 
• Where do we go from here, and who is 
‘we’ anyhow ? 
Workshops on Statistical Seismology
Swiss 
Seismological 
Service Workshops on Statistical Seismology
Swiss 
Seismological 
Service
• Statistical Seismology addresses the growing 
need (of society and funding agencies) for 
validation of scientific models and ideas. 
• Statistical Seismology is trying to move 
seismology towards a ‘hard, quantitative science’ 
(in the provocative words of Yan Kagan). 
• Statistical Seismology, to me, is growing 
because it sits at a critical interface between 
different disciplines.
Personal Statements
Swiss 
Seismological 
Service
Statistical 
Seismology 
PSHA & 
PSRA
Earthquake 
forecasting
Earthquake 
Physics
Earthquake 
prediction
Earthquake 
Early Warning
Society
Seismic 
Monitoring
Numerical 
Modeling
What is Statistical Seismology ?
Swiss 
Seismological 
Service
We need to make our needs, as critical data 
users, known to the community.
We should increasingly make ‘our’ standards 
known and thus spread good practice through 
the community. 
I  believe that generously funded, large scale 
international projects are critical for moving 
ahead. 
Time to ‚grow up‘ ?
Swiss 
Seismological 
Service
Large-scale, well funded, transnational projects are 
critical to: 
 Build a community 
 Attract bright students to the field. 
 Build a sustainable ‘infrastructure’ 
Europe’s Framework Projects (FP5, 6, 7) offer 
interesting opportunities for bringing together  experts 
from EU countries and beyond. 
Europe could, ideally, play a critical role as an 
integrator. 
The role of large-scale projects
Swiss 
Seismological 
Service
Recently funded projects of relevance for statistical 
seismology are: 
1. NERIES (12.1 M€)
2. SAFER    (3.5 1M€) 
• Under evaluation: SEISTRAIN (2.5 M€). 
• In addition, CSEP, GSHAP2 + EU hazard, etc. ( 
Tom, Domenico). 
• Here at Erice, we have about 25 people who 
participate at various levels within these projects, a 
number of presentations/posters – and will have 
the first annual meeting. 
The role of large-scale projects
Domenico Giardini1, D ; Torild van Eck2, 
Remy Bossu3, Stefan Wiemer1 and the 
NERIES consortium
(23 inst. from 13 European countries). 
EC Project NERIES: 
NEtwork of Research Infrastructures for 
European Seismology
1 ETH Zurich
2 ORFEUS
3 EMSC 
EC Implementation:  Integrated Research Infrastructures (I3):
Duration: 4 years; start June 1 2006
Budget: 12.1 M€
NERIES will combine 9  Networking Activities (NA), 5 
Transnational Access (TA) and 5 Joint Research 
Activities (JRA) to promote improved access to 
distributed databases, common protocols, 
standardized procedures and strategies for long-term 
archiving and distribution of seismological data; 
• Develop a new generation of hazard and risk 
assessment tools designed to improve monitoring and 
understanding of the earthquake process; 
NERIES Goals 
NA1 – Project Management              (KNMI/van Eck)
NA2 – Real-time data exchange              (ORFEUS/Dost)
NA3 – Distributed European waveform data archive (GFZ/Hanka)
NA4 – Distributed European historical data archive  (INGV/Stucchi)
NA5 – Improving access to accelerometer data    (ICC/Roca)
NA6 – Broadband OBS networking    (IPGP/Singh)
NA7 – Portal for integrated data access    (EMSC/Bossu)
NA8 – Technology Transfer (workshops, grants)      (KNMI/van Eck)
NA9 – European earthquake data services               (EMSC/Bossu)
NERIES - NA
Networking Activities
 BB Stations: 30 April 2005
Workshops  
Web pages with Technical 
Software Documentation etc. 
Grants for exchange of 
technical personnel
NERIES EC-project: NA8 
Technology Transfer
This includes 20k Euro for this workshop 
and (possibly) support for CORSSA.   
Thank you,  NERIES ! 
JRA1 – European seismological reference model 
(INGV/Morelli)
JRA2 – Real-time hazard tools 
(ETHZ/Wiemer)
JRA3 – Shake-maps and rapid loss estimation 
(Kandilli/Erdik)
JRA4 – Geotechnical site characterization 
(LGIT/Bard)
JRA5 – New approaches to data mining 
(UnLiverpool/Rietbrock)
NERIES - JRA
Joint Research Activities 
Update the European seismic hazard 
model, and implement a ‘living hazard’ 
approach. 
Develop a first generation of time-
dependent hazard models for Europe 
and sub-regions. 
Implement a EU forecasting testing 
center (a node of the global CSEP 
infrastructure), and assist in setting up 
regional tests. 
JRA 2 Objectives
Inspired by RELM
• RELMs in a special issue 
of SRL Jan/Feb 2007, vol. 
78, Num. 1
• http://www.relm.org/
EELM: 
European 
Earthquake 
Likelihood 
Models 
• New catalog for hazard assessment under preparation 
(Gruenthal et al). Infrastructure for hazard computation 
under development  (  OpenSHA ?) 
JRA 2 Progress
• Various models under developments (STEP, ETAS, PI), first 
at national scale, the expanded to EU/global  scale ( 
Woesner, Nanjo, vanStiphout, Thormann, Spada, 
Christophersen, Gerstenberger, Main, Lombardi, Marzocchi). 
JRA 2 Progress
• Quality assessment initiated at national level (Mc via 
EMR and PMC: Woessner, Schorlemmer, Nanjo). 
Station
Probability of detecting earthquakes, M1.0, Nanjo, 2007
JRA 2 Progress
Swiss 
Seismological 
Service
Station
Completeness 
magnitude for Japan: 
 GR law based 
method 
•EMR method
•Depth <= 30 km
•2005-2006
•200 earthquakes 
for each node
•JMA data
Nanjo, 2007
Swiss 
Seismological 
Service
Completeness 
magnitude for Japan: 
 GR law based 
method 
•EMR method
•Depth <= 30 km
•2005-2006
•200 earthquakes 
for each node
•JMA dataStation
Nanjo, 2007
Swiss 
Seismological 
Service
We (i.e., the StatSeis community) should encourage all 
seismic networks to pay closer attention to maintaining 
and routinely monitoring homogeneity (location & 
magnitude). 
We should request web servletes for QC archives, 
updated in near-real time (e.g., Mc(x,y,z,t)), as 
authoritative resources. 
92.4 92.5 92.6 92.7 92.8 92.9 93
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.6
Time [years]
Magnitude of Completeness
M
c
Mainshock
Swiss 
Seismological 
Service On Bricks and Bullets
Silver Bullet 
approach
Brick by Brick 
approach
Swiss 
Seismological 
Service
Jordan et al. (2007)
• Testing center development, in collaboration 
CSEP/SCEC/NZ, on the way (Schorlemmer, 
Euchner, Woessner, Cocco, …) 
JRA 2 Progress
TA1 – Dense broadband network seismology 
SDSN/ETHZ (Christophersen)
TA2 – Verification seismology 
CEA/DASE (Feignier)
TA3 – Historical seismograms 
SISMOS (INGV/Michelini)
TA4 – Array seismology 
NORSAR (Schweitzer)
TA5 – Instrumentation test facility 
CONRAD (ZAMG/Lenhardt)
NERIES - TA 
Transnational Access
More than 60 grants to visit and 
collaborate with these institutions:  
Swiss 
Seismological 
Service
Swiss 
Seismological 
Service
Swiss 
Seismological 
Service
To calibrate and regionalize the parameters needed for 
real-time aftershock hazard assessment in several test 
locations with a diverse tectonic setting 
To improve our understanding of the physics of 
aftershock occurrence and triggering, and derive and 
test more accurate forecast models. 
To develop and test robust implementation schemes 
that can operate specifically with the highly 
heterogeneous data sets available after a mainshock. 
This should allow for the rapid integration of data from 
temporarily deployed networks. 
To develop, train and test an expert system for the 
forecasting of aftershocks activity. 
Swiss 
Seismological 
Service
Ideal synergies: NERIES addresses 
background models, regional scale and 
testing, WP5 local scale clustering models 
and physical models of aftershocks. 
Decision: Close collaboration, e.g., joint 
workshops of JRA 2 and WP 5. 
NERIES  SAFER NERIES  SAFER  ? 
Swiss 
Seismological 
Service
Improving Task 
Force Data 
Processing 
Capabilities (GFZ, 
Sobiesiak, Hainzl). 
Swiss 
Seismological 
Service
Improving and Combining Statistical & 
Physical Models of Aftershocks 
PRESAP, 
Steacy et al
STEP, 
Gerstenberger et al
Swiss 
Seismological 
Service
North Anatolian Fault 
Zone, Turkey
-
Roth et. al, GFZ
Swiss 
Seismological 
Service
Much improved data and data access for Europe. 
Testable models for (parts of) Europe, stationary as well 
as time-dependent ones. 
A regional + several local CSEP  testing centers
Software (ZMAP++, … ), data standards (QuakeMl) 
documentation and web portals. 
Exchange of people and ideas, workshops, knowledge 
transfer. 
Data quality assessment (QC, e.g. Mc). 
What can SAFER & NERIES do for us ?
Swiss 
Seismological 
Service
• Delays due to the challenge of finding personnel    
 Almost done ! 
• Maintaining focus and momentum in a distributed 
environment             
 Even more meetings ? 
• Data quality and availability in Europe                     
  Request to EMSC/NERIES for a real-time 
European  ‘composite catalog’ formulated during 
this meeting ? 
 
Challenges 
Swiss 
Seismological 
Service
Opportunities for young people (i.e. 
PhD students to get involved !
  SEISTRAIN proposal
EU Marie Curie ITNs (Initial Training 
Networks) on time-dependent hazard 
assessment (submitted May 7, 2007).
If funded, it will support about 25 PhD 
fellowships and post-doc opportunities, 
summerschools etc. 
What is missing ? 
Swiss 
Seismological 
Service
decades years days seconds
Early 
Warning
Long-Term
Forecasting
Short-Term
Forecasting
Long-term
Hazard mapping
& scenarios
ShakeMaps &
Rapid Loss 
Assessment
0 hours
E
a
rt
h
q
u
a
k
e
seconds
What is missing ?  
ETH (lead)
U. Ulster
INGV
Potsdam Univ. 
U. Edinburgh
Kandilli
AMRA/Naples
LMU Munich
U. Savoyen
+ industry 
+ pan-European 
    partner
Swiss 
Seismological 
Service
Thanks for listening  – please stay 
tuned & enjoy the workshop ! 


News from NERIES, SAFER, SEISTRAIN and Other Transnational European Projects

http://www.earth-prints.org/bitstream/2122/2312/1/Wiemer_20070601_light.pdf

News from NERIES, SAFER, SEISTRAIN and Other Transnational European Projects

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

Earth-prints Repository