ElarmS and the next large earthquake in Italy

Abstract

We evaluate the capability of ElarmS to work as an Early Warning System for the next destructive earthquake in Italy. Potential sources were retrieved from the Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS; http://www.ingv.it/DISS/) and from the catalogue of historical earthquakes (CPTI04; http://emidius.mi.ingv.it/CPTI/). Based on the geometry of the new Italian Broad-Band Seismic Network, we estimate the "Alert time" for each source from different nucleation points and the size of the shadow zone, the area already affected by S-waves. We present our results for peninsular Italy with a particular attention to the metropolitan areas of Napoli, (Southern Italy) that have been selected as a test site for the SAFER project (http://www.saferproject.net/), plus Roma and Firenze