Is compression across the northern Apennine fold-and-thrust system (Italy) still active? To address this question, we quantified the long-term rates of migration and shortening of the system along with the measurement errors. Our approach integrates structural geology, seismicity patterns, and statistical
treatment of tectonic activity. On the basis of recently published surface and subsurface data, we found a migration rate of 8.85 ± 0.61 mm/yr. The inception age of individual
fold structures follow closely this average rate, indicating that the system has been migrating at a constant rate for the past
17 Myr. Cumulative shortening of the system also increases linearly through time at 2.93 ± 0.31 mm/yr. The location of the youngest structures in the easternmost portion of the
system coincides with a significant peak of seismic moment released by historical earthquakes. We conclude that not only
these easternmost thrusts are still active, but also that they generate earthquakes
