For a bivariate time series ((Xi,Yi))i=1,...,n we want to detect
whether the correlation between Xi and Yi stays constant for all i=1,...,n. We propose a nonparametric change-point test statistic based on
Kendall's tau and derive its asymptotic distribution under the null hypothesis
of no change by means a new U-statistic invariance principle for dependent
processes. The asymptotic distribution depends on the long run variance of
Kendall's tau, for which we propose an estimator and show its consistency.
Furthermore, assuming a single change-point, we show that the location of the
change-point is consistently estimated. Kendall's tau possesses a high
efficiency at the normal distribution, as compared to the normal maximum
likelihood estimator, Pearson's moment correlation coefficient. Contrary to
Pearson's correlation coefficient, it has excellent robustness properties and
shows no loss in efficiency at heavy-tailed distributions. We assume the data
((Xi,Yi))i=1,...,n to be stationary and P-near epoch dependent on an
absolutely regular process. The P-near epoch dependence condition constitutes a
generalization of the usually considered Lp-near epoch dependence, p≥1, that does not require the existence of any moments. It is therefore very
well suited for our objective to efficiently detect changes in correlation for
arbitrarily heavy-tailed data