Enhancing Students' Understanding of Risk and Geologic Hazards Using a Dartboard Model

Abstract

This article describes the use of a model to express the magnitude-frequency relationships of natural hazards. The model consists of a dartboard whose rings can be drawn to represent magnitude, exceedence probability, average recurrence interval, or other statistical information. Students are engaged by "playing" the dart game through conducting a thought experiment, actually throwing at a physical dartboard, or simulating events based on a computer program. This type of model is applicable to any sequence of events that can be described by random sampling. It helps emphasize the random nature of such events, and provides a means for presenting hazard recurrence information in an easily visible form. In addition, it helps mitigate students' misconceptions about risk and average recurrence intervals, and provides a way to teach probability concepts without the use of sophisticated mathematics. Educational levels: Graduate or professional