Probabilistic two-phase aircraft wake vortex model Application and assessment

Abstract

Predictions of the parametric aircraft wake vortex transport and decay model P2P are compared with field observations. The two-phase decay model predicts probabilistic wake vortex behavior as a function of aircraft and environmental parameters in real time. Observation data from field deployments accomplished at the International Airports Memphis and Dallas Fort Worth, and from the WakeOP campaign performed at the airfield in Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany are employed. In a scoring procedure, the predictive capabilities of a deterministic version of P2P are compared to Sarpkaya's model. Based on 211 Memphis cases, it is shown that the probabilistic model predicts conservative confidence intervals for vortex decay with the exception of four cases in which constant background wind shear increases vortex lifetime. Nonetheless, the aircraft spacing reduction potential based on vortex decay appears small. In contrast, consideration of advection outside the lateral limits of a safety corridor results in a large potential spacing reduction. Vortex drift is investigated based on input from different wind measurement devices with a focus on the spatial and temporal variability of the crosswind. Safety corridor clearances based on short term weather forecasts yield promising results. Further, it is found that shear layers may modify vortex transport such that predicted uncertainty allowances are exceeded. (orig.)Available from TIB Hannover: RR 6341(108) / FIZ - Fachinformationszzentrum Karlsruhe / TIB - Technische InformationsbibliothekSIGLEDEGerman