A widely circulated 1997 U.S. Census Bureau publication contains a computational error that shows a much lower unemployment rate for immigrants than was actually the case

Briggs , Vernon  M., Jr.

English

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Cornell University ILR School 
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Faculty Publications - Human Resource Studies Human Resource Studies 
September 1997 
Error Discovered in Unemployment Rate 
Vernon M. Briggs Jr. 
Cornell University, vmb2@cornell.edu 
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Error Discovered in Unemployment Rate 
Abstract 
"A widely circulated 1997 U.S. Census Bureau publication contains a computational error that shows a 
much lower unemployment rate for immigrants than was actually the case." 
Keywords 
U.S. , immigration, immigrant, policy, work, United States, illegal, law, labor, market, employment 
Comments 
Suggested Citation 
Briggs, V. M., Jr. (1997). Error discovered in unemployment rate. Immigration Review, 30, 10-11. 
http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/hr/37/ 
Required Publisher Statement 
Published by the Center for Immigration Studies. 
This article is available at DigitalCommons@ILR: https://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/hrpubs/37 
IMMIGRATION REVIEW
United Airlines employs over 2,600 foreign
crew members in seven bases around the world.
American recently hired 800 to fly routes between
the United States and Latin America. Delta and
Northwest are also involved in this practice. Carni-
val Airlines is hiring flight attendants from Turkey.
The peculiarities of the D-1 visa allow for-
eign nationals multiple entries into the United States
as employees of domestic airlines, though they are
required to depart the country at least once every 29
days. Many become de facto permanent U.S. resi-
dents through misuse of the D-1 visa, however, dis-
placing qualified U.S. citizens from good jobs.
While America is an immigrant nation with
a long, proud tradition of inclusion and diversity
that has helped it become the world's leading eco-
nomic power, our non-immigrant visa policy never
was intended as a tool to displace U.S. workers. We
should work toward a policy encouraging the train-
ing of U.S. workers and eliminating the unfair ad-
vantages enjoyed by employers who bypass the spirit
of H-1B visas. We should not let the few who abuse
the visa system jeopardize the interests of U.S. work-
ers and the nation at large.
Error Discovered in Unemployment Rate
.zryVernon M. Briggs,Jr.
Awidely circulated 1997 U.S. Census Bureau pub-lication contains a computational error that
shows a much lower unemployment rate for immi-
grants than was actually the case. The publication,
"The Foreign-born Population: 1996," is part of the
Current Population Reports (P120-494) series. Re-
leased on April 8, 1997, its findings are widely used
by scholars, journalists, and policymakers. As this
data is only available once a year, new figures will not
be available until Spring 1998. Hence, it is essential to
note this error, as it leads to extensive misinformation
used to suggest that immigrant unemployment is insig-
nificant. In fact, the opposite is true.
The actual numerical data in the report are
correct but the computation of the unemployment
rate is not. Table 1 shows the actual unemployment
data for both the foreign-born and native-born popu-
lations for 1996. The error occurred when the Bu-
reau took the actual number of native-born and for-
eign- born persons reported to be unemployed (6.716
million and 1.095 million, respectively) as a propor-
tion of the total number of persons in each popula-
tion category over age 16 (178.343 million and 22.378
million, respectively). As a consequence, the Bureau
reported (see Table 2) the unemployment rate for
1996 as 3.8 percent for the native-born population
and 4.9 percent for the foreign-born population (see
page 5 of the cited report).
In fact, the defmition of unemployment used
by all federal agencies and official reports is based on
the number of persons over age 16 reported as unem-
ployed as a proportion to the total number of per-
sons in the labor force (118.025 million native-born
and 14.298 million foreign-born). Thus, while the
numerators are the same in both computations, the
denominators are quite different. The result, of
Table 1
Labor Force Status of the Foreign Born PopuJation, 1996
(Numbers in Thousands)
Native Born
PopulationTotal Population
Foreign Born
Population
Total in the Population 16 Years
and Older
Total in the Entire Labor Force
Employed
Unemployed
Source: u.s. Bureau of the Census
200,722
132,324
124,513
7,811
178,343
118,025
111,309
6,716
22,378
14,298
13,203
1,095
No. 30, Fal/lWinter 1997/98
10
IMMIGRATION REVIEW
course, is that the calculated unemployment rate is
significantly different. The correct calculation (see
Table 2) shows that the unemployment rate for the
native-born population was 5.7 percent while the
unemployment rate for the foreign-born population
was 7.7 percent in 1996.
It is rare for the u.s. Census Bureau to make
an error of this magnitude. As the published data
have been widely used to downplay the issue of im-
migrant unemployment, it is essential that notice of
this error be widely disseminated, regardless of where
one stands on the immigration policy debate. Allsides
depend on "truth in data" as a basis for rational dis-
course.
Table 2
PubJished Unemployment Rate and the
Conected Unemployment Rate of the
Foreign-Born Population, 1996
Native-Born Foreign-Born
Population Population
Reported
UnemploymentRares
Actual
Unemployment Rates
3.8 4.9
5.7 7.7
It should also be noted that there is a widely
recognized problem of statistical undercount of the
foreign-born labor force due to the problem of ille-
gal immigration. Hence even this corrected unem-
ployment rate of7.7 percent must be recognized as
being an underestimate of the "real" rate.
After being alerted by this writer, officials at
the Census Bureau responsible for the preparation
of the report rechecked their calculations, and pri-
vately acknowledged the error. Unfortunately, how-
ever, there does not appear to have been any formal
acknowledgment of the mistake in any official publi-
cation. Hence, the wrong data continue to be used
by unsuspecting writers (e.g., see "Right Data" inNa-
tionalReview, September 15,1997, p. 14) and it leads to
wrong conclusions about an extremely serious issue -
the labor market effects and welfare implications of ex-
isting immigration policy.
Vernon BriggsJr. is a labor economist on the faculty of
the School of Industrial and Labor Relations at Cornell
University and a member of the Board of Directors of the
Center for Immigration Studies.
No. 30, FaJl/Winter 1997/98
11


Error Discovered in Unemployment Rate

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