From individual-level data for nine entire cohorts of undergraduate students in UK
universities, we estimate the probability that an individual will drop out of university during
their first-year. We examine the 1984-85 to 1992-93 cohorts of students enrolling full-time for
a three or four-year course, and focus on the sensitivity of the probability of withdrawal to the
individual’s prior qualifications relative to those of the other students in their university course.
We show not only that weaker students are more likely to withdraw but also that the extent of
variation in prior qualifications within the student’s university degree course exerts an
influence on the individual's probability of withdrawal in a way that varies with the individual’s
own in-class rank
