The paper presents results of researches aimed at assessing of influence of traffic intensity increase on collision probability in the Gulf of Trieste. Stochastic, simulation model working in fast time was used in the researches. Ships traffic was modeled on the basis of real data obtained from AISJRC.DG.G.4-Maritime affair

GUCMA Lucjan

PERKOVIC Marko

PRZYWARTY Marcin

Frantsvåg, Jan Erik

NORA - Norwegian Open Research Archives

Our publication fund - what have we learnt?

Munin - Open Research Archive

Our publication fund - what have we learnt? Nordic Perspectives on Open Access and Open Science - the 10th Anniversary Seminar of FinnOA Helsinki, October 15th 2013  Jan Erik Frantsvåg Open Access adviser and Publication fund manager (etc.) The University Library The University of Tromsø – The Arctic University of Norway Conclusion: • Pavlov was right! – Researchers do salivate when you present them with the possibility to get funding! • But they have difficulties finding these possibilities … Nordic Perspectives on OA Open Science 15.10.2015 2 Background for the fund • Established on the basis of a university board decision to implement an Open Access policy (October 2010) – The initative came from the Research Department, aided by the University Library – These two departments were given the task of deciding on the rules and regulations of the fund • Full support from the Rectorate and the University Director, unanimous board decision • When the budget became a constraint this spring, our Rector decided to add more funding to the budget (doubling it) • Continuous political and financial support for OA from the Rectorate and the University board 15.10.2015 Nordic Perspectives on OA Open Science 3 Our fund • Established in 2011 with EUR 40 000 – Used EUR 20 000 (24 articles) • 2012 budget EUR 40 000 – Used EUR 50 000 (42 articles), living off the 2011 surplus • 2013 budget EUR 62 000 – Used EUR 55 000 by the end of May, and received another EUR 62 000 – Used nearly EUR 90 000 so far (66 articles) • Asked for EUR 250 000 for 2014 (to be split with faculties) Nordic Perspectives on OA Open Science 0100 000200 000300 000400 000500 000600 000700 000800 0001 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Kroner Month Accumulated expenditure per year 20112012201315.10.2015 4 The rules • The corresponding author must be affiliated to the university – Teacher/researcher, PDH student, student – Part-time or full time • Journal in DOAJ (OA) • Journal accredited in NSD (quality, the Norwegian system) • No limits on amounts, number of articles – (But prepared to introduce such restrictions if the budget became a problem) • No hybrids! – Difficult concept for researchers – It is the hybrids they like! – One of our institutes has created a fund for financing hybrid articles 15.10.2015 Nordic Perspectives on OA Open Science 5 Who gets the money? 15.10.2015 Nordic Perspectives on OA Open Science 6 Positions Articles funded Percentage Professor 235 37 16 % Associate professor 256 31 12 % PHD 357 38 11 % Total 848 106 13 % And how often? 15.10.2015 Nordic Perspectives on OA Open Science 7 Which faculty gets money? 15.10.2015 Nordic Perspectives on OA Open Science 8 Which faculty gets relatively most? • By number of articles 15.10.2015 Nordic Perspectives on OA Open Science 9 Articles 2012Articles funded 2011-2013PercentageHealth sciences 763 99 13 %Science and technology 244 4 2 %Humanities, social science and teacher eduacation 299 0 0 %Biosciences, Fisheries and Economics 245 26 11 %Law 36 0 0 %Tromsø Museum 54 2 4 %Total 1641 131 8 %Publishers 2011–2013 15.10.2015 Nordic Perspectives on OA Open Science 10 Publishers 2013 15.10.2015 Nordic Perspectives on OA Open Science 11 Development of OA in Tromsø 15.10.2015 Nordic Perspectives on OA Open Science 12 0,0 %5,0 %10,0 %15,0 %20,0 %25,0 %2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Development of Open Access publication by  UiT The Arctic University of Norway 2004-2012 Share of all published articles Gold OAGold OA plus hybridUse of the fund 15.10.2015 Nordic Perspectives on OA Open Science 13 2011 2012 2013 estimatesArticles published, supported by the fund19 27 50All articles published 1194 1285 1400Fund share of articles published1,6 % 2,1 % 3,6 %Effects of the fund? • The relative growth of the fund is much larger than the growth of OA – It takes time to inform the researchers about the fund – But they like OA! (and funding) • The growth in OA (in numbers) is much larger than the growth of the fund – Much of the growth in OA is financed from other sources – The fund may have increased the willingness to publish OA • And the awareness of OA and possibilites of OA publishing  • Strong growth makes it necessary to find other mechanisms – The fund should help create change, but not be permanent – It costs resources to manage – Need more permanent mechanisms that do not insulate researchers from the cost of publishing, to create efficient market mechanisms 15.10.2015 Nordic Perspectives on OA Open Science 14 More information? • The 8th Munin conference – http://www.ub.uit.no/baser/ocs/index.php/Munin/MC8  • 25th–26th November 2013 • The annual conference on scholarly publishing at the University Library of Tromsø – usually with an OA angle • In English • This year’s keynotes: – Jean-François Dechamp from the EU commission: Horizon 2020 (EU): an open access funder mandate – Eelco Ferwerda from OAPEN: Open access in humanities and social sciences – David Prosser from Research Libraries UK: What's 'Open' about open access? The Vital Role of Copyright and Licenses 2.–3. oktober 2013 The 5th National PhD Conference in Medical Imaging 15 

English

JRC Publications Repository

ANNUAL  OF  NAVIGAT ION 15/2009  
 
LUCJAN GUCMA, MARCIN PRZYWARTY 
Maritime University of Szczecin 
MARKO PERKOVIC 
University of Ljubljana;  
A S S E S S M E N T  O F  I N F L U E N C E  O F  T R A F F I C  
I N T E N S I T Y  I N C R E A S E  O N  C O L L I S I O N  
P R O B A B I L I T Y  I N  T H E  G U L F  O F  T R I E S T E  
ABSTRACT 
The paper presents results of researches aimed at assessing of influence of traffic intensity 
increase on collision probability in the Gulf of Trieste. Stochastic, simulation model working 
in fast time was used in the researches. Ships traffic was modeled on the basis of real data 
obtained from AIS. 
Keywords: Ships’ Collision, Marine Traffic. 
INTRODUCTION 
The aim of this analysis is to objectively assess the risk of collisions of ships 
maneuvering in Gulf of Trieste. Due to complexity of navigational situation and 
navigational routes the assessment has been conducted by means of navigation 
safety stochastic model developed in Maritime University of Szczecin [1]. 
The base model input is probabilistic characteristics of ships traffic 
(intensity and ship size) and routes (variability of routes in dependence to ship size) 
together with navigational situation and as an output the places of simulated 
collisions have been determined. 
ASSUMPTIONS 
Following assumptions have been made: 
– The ships traffic was divided into three size groups. 
– The most important factor as probability of collision of ships in different 
situations was established on the basis of Baltic Sea statistical data. (This was 
LUCJAN GUCMA, MARKO PERKOZIC, MARCIN PRZYWARTY 
 
  ANNUAL OF NAVIGATION 42 
done due to lack of statistical data in Gulf of Trieste). 
– Simulations were conducted in two scenarios: 
 with steady traffic on level existing today in Gulf of Trieste 
 with 20% increase of traffic during 5 years in Koper Port (100% of today 
traffic after 5 years). 
– The simulations have been conducted within 5 years periods and repeated 
several times to obtain proper statistical significance of model results. 
A r e a  
Three ports exist near analyzed area:  
– Port of Koper (Slovenia) 
– Port of Trieste (Italy) 
– Port of Monfalcone (Italy) 
The ships traffic is regulated by complicated traffic separation scheme (Fig. 1). 
 
Fig. 1. Layout of analyzed area (TSS and AIS gates) 
T r a f f i c  
Traffic has been analyzed on the basis of AIS records (01.02.2008-
23.03.2008). Ships were divided into three classes according to GT: 
– small ships of 0-10000 GT 
– medium class ships of 10000-50000 GT 
– large ships more than 50000 GT 
The mean traffic in analyzed ports is presented in Tab.1. Total number of 
ASSESMENT OF INFLUENCE OF TRAFFIC INTENSITY  INCREASE  ON COLLISION PROBABILITY 
15/2009  43 
ships in analyzed area is around 9300 ships annually. 
Table 1. Traffic [ships/year] in ports divided into size groups based on AIS data 
Ships group Koper Traffic increase after 5 years in Koper Trieste Monfalcone 
Small 2527 5054 2135 237 
Medium 1362 2724 1939 215 
Large 182 364 638 71 
Total 4071 8142 4712 523 
TRAFFIC INCREASE 
According to economic analysis it has been assumed that traffic in Port of 
Koper will increase of about 20% per year. The simulations have been conducted 
within 5 year period and on the end of this period traffic in Koper is assumed to be 
doubled according to existing one. 
A I S  r e s e a r c h e s   -  A I S  g a t e s  
Traffic in Golf of Trieste and Koper have been analyzed on the base of AIS 
researches. Vessel's passages are checked in 7 gates. Positions of AIS gates are 
presented in figure 1. 
For each vessel course, speed and distance to check point at time of crossing 
rectangular line to direction of traffic flow have been measured.  
R o u t e s  a n d  i t s  v a r i a b i l i t y  
On the base of AIS measurements the routes of ships have been determined. 
After analysis due to different behavior of navigators on different size of ships 
routes have been analyzed for three different ships sizes separately.  
The AIS researches enable to evaluate two probabilistic parameters of ships 
routes: mean and standard deviation of Way Points in given routes. Traffic on the 
routes has been modeled as with use of Poisson distribution and Way Points have 
been modeled by 2-dimensional normal distribution with mean and standard 
deviation assessed from AIS data (Fig.2). 
LUCJAN GUCMA, MARKO PERKOZIC, MARCIN PRZYWARTY 
 
  ANNUAL OF NAVIGATION 44
 
 
Fig. 2. Modeling ships traffic between Way Points 
Total number of routes included in the model is equal 30. All routes are 
presented in figure 1. 
METHODOLOGY 
S t o c h a s t i c  m o d e l  o f  s h i p s  a c c i d e n t s  
One of the most appropriate approaches to assess the safety of complex 
marine traffic engineering systems is use of stochastic simulation models [2, 3]. The 
model presented in figure 3 could be used for almost all navigational accidents 
assessment like collisions, groundings, collision with fixed object [3], indirect 
accidents such as anchor accidents or accidents caused by ship generated waves [4]. 
This methodology was used already by several authors before with different effect 
[5, 6, 7].  
ASSESMENT OF INFLUENCE OF TRAFFIC INTENSITY  INCREASE  ON COLLISION PROBABILITY 
15/2009  45 
 
Fig. 3. Diagram of fully developed stochastic model of navigation safety assessment 
C o l l i s i o n  a c c i d e n t  m o d e l s  
To model the collisions simplified statistical model is used. The model 
neglects several dependencies but because it is based on real statistical data the 
achieved results are very close to reality. 
Due to lack of collision statistical data in Gulf of Trieste the most important 
factor as probability of collision of ships in different situations was established on 
the basis of Baltic Sea statistical data. 
The most unknown parameter necessary for collision probability assessment 
on large sea areas is number of ships encounter situations. In complex systems with 
several traffic routes this number could be evaluated only by traffic streams 
simulation models such as the one presented in this study. 
After collecting necessary input data the simulation experiment has been 
carried out and the expected number of encounter situation was calculated. The 
critical distance where navigators perform anti-collision manoeuvre was assumed on 
the base of expert opinion separate for head on (heading difference ±170°), crossing 
and overtaking situations (heading difference ±10°).  
These distances called minimal distances of navigator’s reaction were estimated by 
LUCJAN GUCMA, MARKO PERKOZIC, MARCIN PRZYWARTY 
 
  ANNUAL OF NAVIGATION 46
expert opinion and real time non-autonomous simulation experiment performed on 
ARPA simulator. The overall number of encounter situation estimated by simulation 
model is around 140000 per year where 30% of them are head on situations, 40% of 
crossing and 30% of overtaking. 
Statistical data from southern part of the Baltic Sea accidents were used for 
evaluation of mean intensity of ship collision accidents in the Southern Baltic. The 
mean intensity of collision accidents equals 2.2 per year. 
Calculated number of  encounter situations and the evaluated mean intensity 
of collision have been used for estimating the probability of collision. To simplify 
the calculations it was assumed that probability of collision is equal in all considered 
situations. The existing databases of real accidents scenarios justify this assumption.  
The calculated probabilities of collision in single encounter situation are 
presented in figure 4.  
1.00E-06
1.00E-05
1.00E-04
Head on Cross Overtake
2005
2000
P
 
Fig. 4. Probability of collision accident (P) in different encounter situations in 2000 and 2005 
on the Southern Baltic Sea 
Estimated collision probability on the Baltic Sea (Fig 10) has been used in 
model of Gulf of Trieste navigational safety. Mean probability (2000 and 2005) 
have been applied in given collision situations. 
RESULTS 
The simulations have been carried out in series each for 5 years as the period 
of interests during which the traffic increase could be predicted with relatively 
accurate precision. The results are presented in fig. 5, fig.6 and tab.2. 
ASSESMENT OF INFLUENCE OF TRAFFIC INTENSITY  INCREASE  ON COLLISION PROBABILITY 
15/2009  47 
2730
2732
2734
2736
2738
2740
2742
2744
800 805 810 815 820 825   
Fig. 5. Simulated places of collisions in scenario 1 (no increase of traffic) during 800x5 years 
period 
 
2730
2732
2734
2736
2738
2740
2742
2744
800 805 810 815 820 825  
Fig. 6. Simulated places of collisions in scenario 1 (100% increase of traffic) during 800x5 
years period 
 
Table 2. Mean number of accidents, probability of accidents and mean time between 
accidents 
Series 
Number of 
5 year 
simulation 
periods 
Total 
number of 
collisions 
Expected 
number of 
collisions per 
year 
Mean time 
between 
collisions 
[year] 
1.No increase of traffic 800 50 0.0125 80 
2.Traffic increase of 100% 800 105 0.0262 38.1 
 
LUCJAN GUCMA, MARKO PERKOZIC, MARCIN PRZYWARTY 
 
  ANNUAL OF NAVIGATION 48
CONCLUSIONS 
The results presented in fig. 5 and fig. 6 gives general overview of collision 
risk places in analyzed area. The most risk affected place in analyzed area is 
precaution area near AIS gate xkp. This area should be covered and protected by 
future VTS with special care. The ships in this area significantly change its courses 
enforcing other ships to predict its maneuvers. New routing measures could be 
considered in this place in the future to increase the navigational safety  
(ex. roundabout traffic scheme). 
Traffic increase in Koper Port will scientifically increase the risk of ships 
collision in analyzed area (Tab.2) which should be the reason of protecting the area 
by active VTS.  
REFERENCES 
[1] Gucma L. Evaluation of oil spills in the Baltic Sea by means of simulation 
model and statistical data. International Maritime Association of 
Mediterranean. Kolev and Soares editors. Balkema 2007. 
[2] Gucma L. 2005. Risk Modelling of Ship Collisions Factors with Fixed Port 
and Offshore Structures (in polish). Szczecin: Akademia Morska. 
[3] Gucma L. 2003. Models of ship's traffic flow for the safety of marine 
engineering structures evaluation. Proc. of ESREL Conf. Rotterdam: Balkema.  
[4] Gucma L. & Zalewski P. 2003. Damage probability of offshore pipelines due 
to anchoring ships. Polish Maritime Research. 
[5] Friis-Hansen, P. & Simonsen, B.C. 2000. GRACAT: Software for Grounding 
and Collision Risk Analysis. Collision and Grounding of Ships; Proc. Intern. 
Conf. Copenhagen. 
[6] Merrick, J.R.W. et al. 2001. Modelling Risk in Dynamic Environment of 
Maritime Transportation. Proc. of Intern. Conf. of Winter Simulation. 
Washington. 
[7] Otay, E. & Tan, B. 1998. Stochastic Modelling of Tanker Traffic Through 
Narrow Waterways Proc. of Intern. Conf. on Oil Spills in the Mediterranean 
and Black Sea Regions. 
 
Received September 2008 
Reviewed December 2008 


Annual of Navigation