The authors review data collected by the 1980 U.S. Census of North Dakota to discuss recent trends in population

Rathge, Richard W.

Zimmerle, Denise M.

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RECENT TRENDS IN NORTH DAKOTA'S POPULATION Denise M. Zimmerle and Richard W. Rathge North Dakota's population has reached its highest level in 50 years . Data collected from the most recent Census (1980) indicates that there were 652,717 persons residing in North Dakota as of April 1980. More impor­tant, the current residential growth pattern indicates a reversal in the state's previous trend of population loss . Since 1930, the state's highest population count (680,845), the number of residents in North Dakota consistently declined except for a modest growth during the 1960s (see Table I). This resulted in a 50-year population low being recorded in 1970. However, the recent resurgence in population growth has boosted the number of residents in the state to its second highest level in history. Table 1. Total population and population change in North Dakota, 1870 to 1980. Total Change from Year Population Preceding Census number number percent 1980 652,717 34,925 5.7 1970 617,792 -14,654 -2.3 1960 632,446 12,810 2.1 1950 619,636 - 22,299 -3.5 1940 641,935 - 38,910 - 5.7 1930 680,845 33,973 5.3 1920 646,872 69,816 12.1 1910 577,056 257,910 80.8 1900 319,146 128,163 67.1 1890 190,983 154,074 417.4 1880 36,909 34,504 1,434.7 1870 2,405 SOURCE: U.S. Census, Number of Inhabitants, North Dakota. PC80·1·A36. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, December 1981. The rate of population expansion in North Dakota during the past decade is impress ive when compared to other states in the North Central Region . The state's 5.7 percent growth is the third highest among the dozen states in the region . This ranking places it behind Min­nesota and Wisconsin, in a tie with Indiana and Zimmerle is research specialist and Rathge is assistant professor, Department of Agricultural Economics. Nebraska and ahead of seven other regional states (see Table 2). Nonetheless, residential growth in our state re­mains significantly below the national average of 11.4 percent in 1980. Similarly, population growth in the North Central Region (4.0) lags behind the Western (23 .9) and Southern (20.0) regions of the nation but ahead of the Northeast (0.2 percent). Table 2. Total population and percent change for states in the north central region, 1970 to 1980. Po~ulation Change State 1980 1970 1970·1980 Illinois number 11,426,518 number 11,110,285 percent 2.9 Indiana 5,490,224 5,195,392 5.7 Iowa 2,913,808 2,825,368 3.2 Kansas 2,363,679 2,249,071 . 5.1 Michigan 9,262,078 8,881,826 4.3 Minnesota 4,075,970 3,806,103 7.1 Missouri 4,916,686 4,677,623 5.1 Nebraska 1,569,825 1,485,333 5.7 North Dakota 652,717 617,792 5.7 Ohio 10,797,630 10,657,423 1.3 South Dakota 690,768 666,257 3.8 Wisconsin 4,705,767 4,417,821 6.5 SOURCE: U.S. Census, Number of Inhabitants, United States Summary, PC80·1·A1, Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, 1983. Some Reasons Behind North Dakota's New Growth The change from a pattern of population decline to population growth appears to be largley due to a dramatic reduction in outmigration. In the I 960s, nearly one out of seven departed the state (- 15.0 percent). However, in the 1970s net outmigration changed to one of 30 (- 3 percent). This represents nearly a fivefold reduction in the rate of outmigration (see Table 3) . With such a reduction, the state' s own natural increase (births minus deaths) exceeded losses due to outmigration and resulted in net population growth . However, this change in migration patterns was not evenly spread across the state (see Figure 1). Table 3. Population change and net migration in North Dakota, 1950 to 1980. Popu. lation Popu· at Begin. lation ning of al End of Decade Decade Decade Population Change Net Migration ' number number number percent number percent' 1950-1960 619,636 632,446 12,810 2.1 - 105,087 -17.0 1960-1970 632,446 617,792 - 14,654 -2.3 - 94,871 15_0 1970-1980 617,792 652,717 34 ,925 5.7 - 17,675 - 2_ 9 'Net migration is calculated by su btrac ting natural increase (b irths minus deaths) over the decade from the di fference in population (i.e., popul ation­change) from 1970 to 1980. .. Percent net migration is the number of net migrants for the decade div ided by the total popu la tion at the beginning of the decade. PERCENT CHANGE: Modorlt. Lo.. c::=J -5 to -14.91 Hl gh LOB ~ -15' & low.r Stable lTIIIII -4.9 to 4.91 ~od.rato Glln IIlIIlIIIlllII 5 to 14.91 High Gatn I!!S8I!I 151+ Not.: N.gattve values lndlclte out-,"lgrIUon. SOURCE: North Dakotl Consus STflA, 1980 Ind Dtvhlon of Vital Stlthtlcs, North Dlkotl Stlt. D.partment of Health, 1980. Figure 1. Net Migration in North Dakota, by Counties, 1970·1980. For instance, several western counties have experi­enced a net influx of residents (8,635 in Burleigh; 2,780 in Mercer; 2,510 in Morton; 2,200 in Stark; 1,311 in Williams). As might be expected, these counties are associated with recent energy development. Mercer County led this western growth with an in­migration rate of 45 percent (see Table 4). This represented a net influx of 2,780 residents and com­prises 86 percent of the county's total population change since 1970. Burleigh County was second with a rate of 21.2 percent or 8,635 more people. Williams, McKenzie, Stark, and Morton counties also seemingly benefited from coal, oil, and power plant development by attracting new residents during the 1970s amounting to over 5 percent of their county's total population. On the other hand, 10 of the 13 counties with the highest rates o f outmigration a re also in the weste rn part 0 f the state . Eastern North Dakota primarily exhi bi ted reduced losses in popula tio n. Cass was th e only ea stern cou nty which grew by over 5 percent (7 ,508) due to m igra tion. Five addi tional eastern cou n ties (Dickey, Ramsey, Richland, Stutsman, and Trail!) exhibited stable (plus o r minus 5 percent) migration patterns durin g the 1970s (see Figure I) . T he remaining eastern counties lost population , due to mjgration, at rates above 5 percent. These uneven patterns of migration significantly con­tributed to divers ity in population growth. Many coun­tie£ in r'Jorth Dakota experienced a moderate population loss during th e last decade. Twenty-one of the state' s 53 counties lost 5 to a lmost 15 percent of their residen ts between 1970 and 1980 (see Figure 2). An additional 12 counties remained relatively stable with a fluctuation in their population between - 4.9 and 4.9 percent. In co n­trast, seven coun ties exhibited substantial po pulation growth of I S percent or more. PERCENT CHANGE: ~odorlt. Loss c::=J -5 to -14.91 Hl gh LOB EWLZ:l -15' , l ower Stab Ie lIIIIIl -4.9 to 4.9' Moderlte Galn amJllIlIllI 5 to 14.91 High Gal n am!lIII 151+. Not. : N.g,ttve vllu.s lndtcat. populatton d.er..... SOURCE: North Dakota C.n$Us STflA, 1980 Ind Dtvhton of Vltll Stlttsttcs, North Dakota Stat. Department of H.llth, 1980. Figure 2. Population Change in North Dakota, by Coun· ties, 1970-1980. The irregular patterns of growth appear to be related to two processes. The first is energy development in the western part of the state. The Arab oil embargo of 1973-74 made petroleum exp loration in the western part of the state economically a ttractive; crude oil prices quadrupled d uri ng this period. Concurrently, efforts in­creased to extract coal reserves in western North Dakota counties for fuel to be lIsed in neighboring electric power plants. These activities significantly contributed to the movement of people into western North Dakota. Table 4. Total population and components of change for North Dakota, 1970·1980. Nat ural Increase Net Migration Total As Part of As Part of Deaths 1970 1970 1980 Population Population nurn er nurn er percent nurn er percen State Total 617,761 652,717 5.7 107,948 55,339 52,609 8.5 - 17,675 - 2.9 Adams 3,832 3,584 - 6.5 503 400 103 2.7 351 9.2 Barnes 14,669 13,960 - 4.8 2,017 1,615 402 2.7 - 1,111 - 7.6 Benson 8,245 7,944 - 3.7 1,612 968 644 7.8 945 -11.5 Billi ngs 1,198 1,138 - 5.0 164 68 96 8.0 156 -13.0 Bottineau 9,496 9,239 - 2.7 1,348 1,058 290 3.1 547 - 5.8 Bowman 3,901 4,229 8.4 724 437 287 7.4 41 1.1 Burke 4,739 3,822 - 19.4 568 497 71 1.5 988 -20.8 Burleigh 40,71 4 54,811 34.6 8,244 2,782 5,462 13.4 8,635 21 .2 Cass 73,653 88,247 19.8 12,938 5,852 7,086 9.6 7,508 10.2 Cavalier 8,213 7,636 - 7.0 1,472 897 575 7.0 - 1,152 -14.0 Dickey 6,976 7,207 3.3 1,100 846 254 3.6 23 - 0.3 Divide 4,564 3,494 -23.4 559 509 50 1.1 - 1,120 -24.5 Dunn 4,895 4,627 - 5.5 681 389 292 6.0 560 - 11.4 Eddy 4,103 3,544 -13.6 509 472 37 .9 596 -14.5 Emmons 7,200 5,877 -18.4 866 542 324 4.5 - 1,647 -22.9 Foster 4,832 4,611 - 4.6 773 497 276 5.7 497 -10.3 Golden Valley 2,61 1 2,391 - 8.4 406 271 135 5.2 355 -13.6 Grand Forks 61 ,102 66,100 8.2 13,590 3,926 9,664 15.8 - 4,666 - 7.6 Grant 5,009 4,274 -14.7 660 448 212 4.2 947 -18.9 Griggs 4,184 3,7 14 -11 .2 550 511 39 0.9 509 -12.2 Hetti nger 5,075 4,275 -15.8 638 440 198 3.9 - 998 -19.7 Kidder 4,362 3,833 -12.1 663 415 248 5.7 777 -17.8 LaMoure 7,11 7 6,473 - 9.1 946 773 173 2.4 817 -11 .5 Logan 4,245 3,493 - 17.7 500 344 156 3.7 908 -21 .3 McHenry 8,977 7,858 - 12.5 1,192 876 316 3.5 - 1,435 -16.0 Mcintosh 5,545 4,800 -1 3.4 517 566 49 - 0.9 696 -12.6 Mc Kenzie 6,127 7,132 16.4 1,049 573 476 7.8 529 8.6 McLean 11,251 12,383 10.1 1,863 1,215 648 5.8 484 4.3 Mercer 6, 175 9,404 52.3 1,085 636 449 7.3 2,780 45.0 Morten 20,310 25, 177 24.0 3,991 1,634 2,357 11 .6 2,510 12.4 Mountrail 8,437 7,679 - 9.0 1,347 989 358 4.2 - 1,116 -13.2 Nelso n 5,807 5,233 - 9.9 649 892 - 243 - 4.2 331 - 5.7 Oliver 2,322 2,495 7.5 371 171 200 8.6 27 - 1.2 Pembina 10,728 10,399 - 3.1 1,769 1,312 457 4.3 786 - 7.3 Pierce 6,323 6,1 66 - 2.5 965 612 353 5.6 510 - 8.0 Ramsey 12,91 5 13,048 1.0 1,977 1,330 647 5.0 498 - 3.9 Ransom 7,102 6,698 - 5.7 954 940 14 0.2 418 - 5.9 Renville 3,828 3,608 - 5.8 552 380 172 4.5 392 -10.2 Richland 18,089 19,207 6.2 2,860 1,873 987 5.5 131 .7 Rolette 11 ,549 12,177 5.4 3,201 1,042 2,159 18.7 - 1,531 - 13.3 Sargent 5,937 5,512 - 7.2 929 737 192 3.2 614 -10.3 Sheridan 3,232 2,819 -12.8 410 274 136 4.2 549 -17.0 Sioux 3,632 3,620 - 0.3 995 358 . 637 17.5 649 -17.9 Slope 1,484 1,1 57 - 22.0 211 81 130 8.8 457 -30.8 Stark 19,61 3 23,697 20.8 3,500 1,616 1,884 9.6 2,200 11.2 Steele 3,749 3,106 -1 7.2 445 360 85 2.3 728 -19.4 Stutsman 23,550 24, 154 2.6 3,548 2,179 1,369 5.8 765 - 3.2 Towner 4,645 4,052 - 12.8 587 502 85 1.8 678 -14.6 Tralll 9,571 9,624 0.6 1,281 1,140 141 1.5 88 - 0.9 Walsh 16,251 15,371 - 5.4 2,407 1,790 617 3.8 - 1,497 - 9.2 Ward 58,560 58,392 - 0.3 12,920 3,712 9,208 15.7 - 9,376 -16.0 Wells 7,847 6,979 - 11 .1 983 858 125 1.5 993 - 12.7 Williams 19,301 22,237 15.2 3,359 1,734 1,625 8.4 1,311 6.8 SOURCE: Division of Vital Statistics, North Dakota State Department of Health, and North Dakota STF 1A, 1980. The second process is a trend toward urbanization. This movement is of special interest in a traditionally agricultural state. The U.S. Bureau of Census defines urban areas as those cities or other population centers' with 2,500 residents or more. The move to cities has been evident in North Dakota since the first hal f of the century (see Table 5) . Less than 17 percent of the state's population resided in urban centers in 1930. This pro­portion rose steadily to 44 percent in 1970 and almost 49 percent in 1980. A total of 318,310 people made up this growing proportion of the state's population in 1980. Cities of 10,000 and more inhabitants have grown by more than 21,000 people since J 970. Similarly, over 21,000 more individuals reside in cities of 2,500 to 10,000 inhabitants since 1970. The move toward urban areas resulted in a popula­tion loss in North Dakota's rural areas containing primarily farms and towns of less than 2,500 people. The rural population in North Dakota fell from 344,319 in 1970 to 334,407 in 1980. The exodus from rural areas is depicted in the continued losses in countryside and farm populations (see Table 5). Notably, the predominantly rural counties of Divide, Burke, Het­tinger, Slope, Emmons, and Logan had population losses of 15 percen t or more during the past two decades, with the exception of Emmons County which lost 13 percent of its population during the 1960s. HIGHLIGHTS OF POPULATION CHANGE IN NORTH DAKOTA 1. 	 North Dakota grew by nearly 35,000 inhabitants between 1970 and 1980. The state's population as of April 1, 1980 was 652,717. 2. 	 This growth reflects a change in migration pat­terns which occurred during the decade. After two decades of significant outmigration in the 50s an d 60s, a loss of 17 percent and 15 percent, respec­tively, outmigration in the 1970s fell to a loss of 2.9 percent. With this reduced rate of outmigra­tion, the natural increase (births minus deaths) ex­ceeded losses due to outmigration. Whether this change is the sign of a new trend remains to be seen. 3. 	 The changes in migration and growth patterns were not evenly spread across the state. The coun ­ties with greatest growth in the 1970s were Cass and Burleigh . Their net population increases were 14,549 and 14,097, respectively. Mercer County had the greatest percentage population increase: 52.3 percent. 4. 	 The uneven pattern of population growth appears to be largely related to two processes, an influx of residents in certain western counties due to energy development, and a continued pattern of ur­banization, particularly in certain eastern coun­ties. Table 5. Urban and rural population in North Dakota, 1930·1980. Population 	 1980 1970 1950 1930 Urban number 318,310 percent 48.8 number 273,442 percent 44.3 number 164,817 percent 26.6 number 113,306 percent 16.6 Places of 2,500 or more 1,000,000 or more 500,000 to 1,000,000 250,000 to 500,000 100,000 to 250,000 50,000 to 100,000 25,000 to 50,000 10,000 to 25,000 5,000 to 10,000 2,500 to 5,000 Places of less than 2,500 Other urban 316,711 61,383 121,093 71,152 48,843 14,240 465 1,134 48.5 9.4 18.6 10.9 7.5 2.2 0.1 0.2 273,387 53,365 106,001 72,714 33,104 8,203 55 44.3 8.6 17.2 11 .8 5.4 1.3 164,817 65,092 51,369 40,548 7,808 26.6 10.5 8.3 6.5 1.3 113,306 28,619 44,301 34,074 6,312 16.6 4.2 6.5 5.0 0.9 Rural 334,407 51.2 344,319 55.7 454,819 73.4 567,539 83.4 Places of 1,000 to 2,500 Places of less than 1,000 Other rural 70,531 76,067 187,809 10.8 11.7 28.8 65,434 75,735 203,150 10.6 12.3 32.9 69,670 89,723 295,426 11 .2 14.5 47.7 39,232 98,709 429,598 5.8 14.5 63.1 SOURCE: U.S. Census, Number of Inhabitants, PC80·1·A36. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Government Printing Office, December 1982. 6 

Recent Trend in North Dakota's Population

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