This study investigates improvements to public transport

for people aged over 65 in New Zealand rural and small cities. Due to the popularity of Thames, NZ for people aged 65 and over the population for this age group is increasing in Thames and therefore so does the demand for alternative modes of transport (to maintain the elderly’s independence), especially once owning or driving a private motor vehicle is no longer a viable option. This study explores the existing problems that the elderly face regarding transportation in Thames, NZ rural and investigates possible public transport improvements to help maintain independence for people aged 65 and over

Kim, Hyun-Chan

English

This study investigates improvements to public transport
for people aged over 65 in New Zealand rural and small cities. Due to the popularity of Thames, NZ for people aged 65 and over the population for this age group is increasing in Thames and therefore so does the demand for alternative modes of transport (to maintain the elderly’s independence), especially once owning or driving a private motor vehicle is no longer a viable option. This study explores the existing problems that the elderly face regarding transportation in Thames, NZ rural and investigates possible public transport improvements to help maintain independence for people aged 65 and over

Wintec Research Archive

+The development of demand responsive transport service for older people in NZ rural areas: Preliminary Case Study in ThamesChan Kim / MSc, PhD Waikato Institute of TechnologyIntroduction Research Background: Trend of elderly population in NZ Travel behavior (Modal share and trip purpose) Demand Responsive Transport Service Case Study: Thames, Waikato Survey method and sample Analysis Conclusion & Research DirectionBackgroundTrend of Elderly Population in NZ The number of people aged 65 and over is increasing At the June of 2018, 747k people were aged 65-plus Those aged 65 years and older will roughly double in 2046 with 1.3 - 1.5 million Or 23 % of the total population, up from 12 % in 2016.(Source: St ats NZ, 2018)BackgroundTravel Behavior: Modal Share Driving declines to around 60-65 percent of mode share and walking and passenger mode share time increasesSource: MoT (2017)Use of PT increases (Age 65-74)BackgroundTravel Behavior: Time Spent Travelling After age 65, the number of hours travelled per week drops dramaticallySource: MoT (2017)BackgroundTravel Behavior: Trip Purpose Trip Purpose: Shopping and Social trips are major components of tripSource: MoT (2017)Demand Responsive Transport Service(DRTS) (aka, demand responsive transit) Flexible routing and scheduling, Small or medium vehicles (shared-ride mode), Door-to-door (pick-up and drop-off location) Provide a PT service for areas of low passenger demand, special needs passengers May fully funded or partially funded U.S.: 1500 rural + 400 urban system Switzerland: Publicar – operated in sparse populated areas (under 100 person/km2) U.K.: pick up at ‘meeting point’  And many countries including, Australia, Canada, japan, etc.  In NZ, available in  Katikati and Te Aroha (aka., Community vans)Source: Elder Transportation Servicehttps://eldertransportaustin.com/demandresponsetransport/Demand Responsive Transport Service(DRTS) Mass Transport Service: Transport CategoriesSource: Elder Transportation Servicehttps://eldertransportaustin.com/demandresponsetransport/ The gateway to the Coromandel Peninsula Approximately 1 to 1.5 hours’ drive from Auckland, Hamilton, and Tauranga Cheaper housing and living costs, an attractive location to retire to The population for people aged 65 and over in Thames is increasing PT in Thames is not adapting fast enough to meet future demand due to the growing elderly population.Case Study: Thames, WaikatoCase Study: Thames, Waikato2001 2006 201365 to 69 5.3 6.0 7.370 to 74 5.0 5.6 6.275 to 79 4.1 5.0 4.780 to 84 3.1 3.8 4.685 and over 2.7 3.2 4.20.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.0%Thames Populat ion for people aged 65 and overThames has a growing elderly population2001 2006 201365 to 69 3.4 3.7 4.670 to 74 3.2 2.9 3.575 to 79 2.5 2.5 2.580 to 84 1.6 1.8 1.985 and over 1.3 1.4 1.70.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.0%NZ Populat ion for people aged 65 and over Few PT options available currently (Taxi and Thames Connector Bus*) Due to steep topography some forms of transport are not suitable for all people (50/50 Flat to steep) Current public transport is either too expensive, schedule based (buses) and not all door to door*6 month trial service + one year contract, urban service onlyCase Study: Thames, Waikato0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%40%45%50%2001 2006 2013 2018 2023 2028 2033 2038 2043Percentage of Thames PopulationYear30% 43%RECAP: Travel Behavior of Elderly Jansuwan et al. (2013) Make more frequent short trips Travel mode for social or recreational trips High reliance on private vehicles (help from family) Rahman et al. (2016) Most preferred mode use option: volunteer driver with the shuttle bus Least preferred mode use option: pre-paid taxi and bus Schwarzlose et al. (2014) High willingness-to-pay for a flexible PT serviceRECAP: Thames PT service Thames Connector Bus 6-month Trial User DataMonth: Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Avg.Non super gold card user 287 366 247 218 361 282 294Super gold card users       (users aged 65 plus)577 517 509 657 597 611 578Total Number of users 864 883 756 875 958 893 872% of users over 65 in age 67% 59% 67% 75% 62% 68% 66%Avg. number of 65+ /day 19 17 18 21 20 20 19 % of users over 65 in age         (2016-17: Horizons Regional Council) Palmerston North: 4.8% (50,668) Whanganui: 26.4% (38,396) Feilding: 9.9% (8,686) Ashhurst: 12.1% (676)Research Questions & Methodology Research Question Investigate the modes of transport available to the aging population in NZ medium/small town and rural Explores the requirements to complete the Transport for the Elderly Determine the most effective methods of transport for people aged over 65 Methodology 2 surveys: Revealed Preference, Stated Preference Econometric ModellingMethodology: Rank-ordered logit (ROL) model Extended from conditional logit model(McFadden, 1974; Beggset al., 1981; Hausman and Ruud, 1987; Pundj and Staelin, 1978; Chapman and Staelin, 1982; and Allison and Christakis, 1994)𝑷𝒓 𝑼𝟏 > 𝑼𝟐 > ⋯ > 𝑼𝒋) = 𝑷𝒓 (𝑼𝟏 > 𝑼𝒋, 𝒋 = 𝟏, 𝟐,⋯ , 𝑱⦁ 𝑷𝒓 𝑼𝟐 > 𝑼𝒋, 𝒋 = 𝟑, 𝟒,⋯ , 𝑱 ⦁⋯ ⦁ 𝑷𝒓 𝑼𝑱−𝟏 > 𝑼𝑱=𝒆𝑽𝟏σ𝒋=𝟏𝑱 𝒆𝑽𝒋⦁𝒆𝑽𝟐σ𝒋=𝟐𝑱 𝒆𝑽𝒋⦁ ⋯ ⦁𝒆𝑽𝑱−𝟏𝒆𝑽𝑱−𝟏+ 𝒆𝑽𝑱= ς𝒋=𝟏𝑱=𝟏 𝒆𝑽𝑱σ𝒎=𝒋𝑱 𝒆𝑽𝒎𝑷𝒓൭𝑼𝟏 > 𝑼𝟐 > ⋯ > 𝑼𝑲, 𝑲 ≤ 𝑱) = ς𝒋=𝟏𝑲 𝒆𝑽𝒋σ𝒌=𝒋𝑲 𝒆𝑽𝒌 ROL model can be estimated by SAS® statistical analysis softwareRevealed Preference Survey: Sample Data37%60%3%GENDERMale Female No answer 65 to 6934%70 to 7417%75 to 8940%90 to 945%No answer4%AGE <$20,00014%$20,000 to $40,00046%$40,000 to $60,00013%$60,000>16%No answer11%INCOMEOwn home59%Rental14%Retirement Village26%RESIDENCE TYPERevealed Preference SurveyParawai20%Tararu14%Totara4%East of Rolleston Street13%Moanataiari13%Thames Central33%No answer3%LOCATION OF RESIDENCEAnalysis: Trip PatternTrip Destination Use of Mode (Overall)Destination Trip/week RankShopping 1.91 1Medical 0.32 5Social (Family/Friend/church)1.55 2Recreation 0.42 3Other 0.35 4Total Average Trip 4.54Mode Trip/week RankOwn vehicle 4.03 1Bus 0.32 3Taxi 0.13 5Walking 0.52 2Cycling 0.04 7Mobility Scooter 0.15 4Friend and Family 0.07 6Analysis: Travel behavior Use of the Alternative Mode: Non-vehicle OwnerAlternative ModeWeighted Average (%)RankWalking (include Mobility scooter) 36.9 1Friend/Family support 26.0 2Bus 19.6 3Taxi or Companion driver service 13.7 400.050.10.150.20.250.30.35Walking Friend/Family Bus TaxiMale FemaleAnalysis: Travel behavior The main reason you stopped driving (vehicle and road factors)Alternative ModeWeighted Average (%)RankOperating costs of owning a vehicle26.5 1Dealing with traffic congestion 18.0 3Poor road conditions 18.9 2Lack of parking/ difficulty parking 11.3 4Design and comfort of your vehicle 3.3 500.050.10.150.20.250.3Cost Congestion RoadconditionParking Vehicle65-75 Over75Analysis: Travel behavior The main reason you stopped driving (physical factors)Alternative Mode Weighted Average (%) RankWorried about getting lost 22.7 2Concerned with other driver’s behavior 13.7 4Health reasons (poor eyesight etc) 23.6 1Confidence with driving 8.1 5Traffic moves too fast 15.6 3Analysis: Travel behavior Perception for use of the Public Transport (constraints)Alternative ModeWeighted Average (%)RankAccessibility             (getting to the stop)20.7 1Difficulty boarding 16.6 3Being able to get a seat 15.9 4Being worried about crime 17.9 2Public transportation is too expensive14.1 6Public transportation doesn’t go where I need to go15.3 500.050.10.150.20.250.3Access Boarding Seat Crime Cost DestinationMale Female 65-75 Over 75Analysis: DRPT Service Perception for the use of Demand Responsive PT serviceYES72%NO28%$5 75%$7.50 21%$10 2%$15 2%Willingness to payExample of Trip: From Tararu t o t he Thames Civic Cent re on Mary St . • Tot al Distance: 3.7 km • Travel Time: 5 minutesAnalysis: DRPT Service System Requirements for the Demand Responsive PT serviceBy phone call60%Mobile phone application20%Website or email20%Booking MethodNo minimum41%½ hour prior25%1 hours prior16%1 to 6 hours prior9%Over 6 hours prior9%Minimum Booking TimeConclusion Preliminary Survey Analysis shows that the majority of people surveyed would consider using a DRPT service, if they could no longer drive their own vehicle. There will be a greater need for more flexible PT options in small towns as the population ages. Accessibility is one of the biggest reasons why existing public transport needs to be improved to meet the growing demands for public transport for people aged over 65. ‘Tailored’ operational plan required regarding Operation hours, booking time, etcLimitation & Research Direction Sample size, the location of sample collected Discrete choice (Behaviour) models allow researchers to analyse and predict how people's choices are influenced by their personal characteristics and by the alternatives available to them  Apply operational options to estimates the demand changes in comparison with the ‘do-nothing’ policy Decreasing service fare for DRPT  (or Increasing subsidies) Increasing service frequency (or service area) Measure Willingness-to-pay (WTP) to evaluate elasticity of elderly demand based on new serviceThank youQUESTIONS OR COMMENTS

The development of demand responsive transport service for older people in NZ rural areas: Preliminary Case Study in Thames

http://researcharchive.wintec.ac.nz/6367/1/NZMUG_2018_Chan_KIM.pdf

The development of demand responsive transport service for older people in NZ rural areas: Preliminary Case Study in Thames

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