Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University
Abstract
The aim of this study is to establish the optimal flood control system accounted for by the comprehensive criteria on the whole river basin. Especially, we will examine the effects of flood control projects in the system consisting of multi-sub-basin and multi-defense points against flood inundation probability in time and space. We define the planning problem of flood control projects as the minimization problem of the construction cost among all alternatives while satisfying the required safety rate for the prevention of flood inundation. First, the better alternatives are extracted by using the random search method. Second, the optimal system on the exact basin model is determined by appliaction of the simulation method for them. Lastly, the optimal construction order of the final system is gained by Dynamic Programming with the criteria that the expectation of the inundation damage under construction is minimized. So, we call the above three steps i) Screening model, ii) Simulation model and iii) Sequential model in flood control planning, respectively
