Using a hazards framework and panel data from the National Longitudinal Survey
of Youth (1979-2004), we analyze the fertility patterns of a recent cohort of white
and black women in the United States. We examine how completed fertility varies by
women’s education, differentiating between intended and unintended births. We find
that the education gradient on fertility comes largely from unintended childbearing,
and it is not explained by child-bearing desires or opportunity costs, the two most
common explanations in previous research. Less-educated women want no more children
than the more educated, so this factor explains none of their higher completed
fertility. Less-educated women have lower wages, but wages have little of the negative
effect on fertility predicted by economic theories of opportunity cost. We propose
three other potential mechanisms linking low education and unintended childbearing,
focusing on access to contraception and abortion, relational and economic uncertainty,
and consistency in the behaviors necessary to avoid unintended pregnancies.
Our work highlights the need to incorporate these mechanisms into future research