Comparaison des performances relatives à un modèle déterministe et à un modèle stochastique de température de l'eau en rivière

Abstract

A stochastic model of water temperature has been established and then applied to data taken from measurements on the Sainte-Anne River, Québec; its development uses the Box–Jenkins modelling approach. As well, an existing deterministic water temperature model had been applied to the same data and a comparative study between the two models is made. This comparison contains a graphical daily analysis, a statistical analysis including the calculation of root-mean-square error, and a comparative performance study. With these criteria, no overall domination of one model over the other has been noticed. Nevertheless, an analysis based on the purpose of the model and on the data available allows choice of the appropriate model. Key words: model, temperature, river, stochastic, deterministic, performance. </jats:p