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Progress in estimates of ILUC with MIRAGE model

Abstract

JRC started in 2012 a collaboration with the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) to carry out further work with the economic model MIRAGE used to calculate the ILUC emissions included in the Commission policy proposal COM(2012)595.. Results are expected to further reduce uncertainties in ILUC estimates. This work presents and discusses the results of new runs of MIRAGE model delivered to the JRC-IET. In particular, IFPRI was asked to: - Evaluate GHG emissions by crop groups (sugar, cereals and oil crops), maintaining the same model assumptions/parameters as in the previous analysis. - Make new runs of the MIRAGE economic model, with improved assumptions/parameters as suggested by the JRC The changes brought by IFPRI to their model raise the ILUC emissions compared to 2011 values, especially for EU ethanol.JRC.F.8-Sustainable Transpor

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