Crop Monitoring in EuropeJRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resource

BUSSAY ATTILA

CEGLAR ANDREJ

FONTANA GIOVANNA

JRC Publications Repository

Crop Monitoring in Europe
Joint
Research
Centre
MARS BULLETIN Vol.22 No. 1 (2014)
Hardening of winter cereals significantly delayed in 
western and central Europe 
Period covered: 1 December - 20 January 
 Issued: 27 January 2014
1
Agro-meteorological 
overview
No frost kill has been simulated in Europe so far, thanks to the 
warmer-than-usual weather conditions. Model calculations based on 
the weather forecast for the next 10 days also predict no significant 
frost damage. The current situation is delicate, however, considering 
the weakly hardened crops in Europe’s central regions. If the cold air 
intrusion is more severe than expected and accompanied by shallow 
snow cover, frost kill events could occur in eastern Germany, Poland, 
the Czech Republic, the Baltic countries, Hungary, Romania and 
Bulgaria, depending on the local conditions.
of the Mediterranean Sea. On the other hand, weather conditions in 
Russia, most of Ukraine and Belarus where sufficiently cold to allow 
for the full or almost full hardening of winter crops. 
The weather forecast until the beginning of February indicates a 
significant temperature decrease in central and eastern Europe. 
Consequently, winter cereals are likely to complete the hardening 
process in the Baltic countries, Belarus, southern Ukraine and most 
of Poland and the Czech Republic. Frost tolerance is also expected 
to increase significantly in eastern regions of Germany as well as in 
Austria, Hungary, Romania and countries of the Balkan Peninsula. 
The hardening of winter cereals 
is significantly delayed in 
western and central Europe. 
Hardening is a bio-physiological 
process, assessed with computer 
simulation models, whereby plants 
gain low-temperature tolerance 
that allows them to survive the 
freezing conditions of winter. Since 
mid-December, most of Europe 
experienced an exceptionally mild 
period with a 2 to 7°C positive 
thermal anomaly, slowing down 
or delaying the hardening process 
from Ireland to Poland. 
A decrease in frost tolerance 
has even been observed in 
southern France, Hungary, Serbia, 
Bulgaria and some other areas 
of the Balkan Peninsula where 
a large part of the crops is only 
slightly hardened. Little or no 
low-temperature tolerance has 
been reached in the coastal region 
2 MARS BULLETIN Vol.22 No. 1 (2014) 
Considering the entire period of review, from 1 December to 
20 January, the weather conditions were warmer than usual 
across Europe, with the exception of Turkey where negative 
thermal anomalies were recorded, and Ireland, parts of the 
Iberian Peninsula and the southern Mediterranean region, 
where thermal conditions were normal. During the first half 
of December, negative average temperature anomalies in 
the range of -2 to -4°C were observed in France, the Iberian 
Peninsula, Romania, Turkey and the regions around the Black 
Sea, while near-average temperatures prevailed in the rest 
of Europe. During this period, the mean daily minimum 
temperature was below the long-term average in large parts 
of Europe. The most important frost event occurred in eastern 
Europe, around 11 December, with minimum temperatures 
as low as -15°C in Russia, Belarus, eastern Ukraine and 
Turkey. The second half of December was characterised by 
warmer-than-usual thermal conditions over northern and 
central Europe, with average temperatures as much as 6 to 
8°C above average in Finland, northern Russia and the Baltic 
countries. Positive thermal anomalies, in the range of 4 to 
6°C, continued until 15 January across Europe, hampering the 
hardening of winter cereals. After 15 January, temperatures 
During December, drier-than-usual conditions were observed 
in large parts of eastern and south-eastern Europe, with 
cumulated rainfall more than 80% below average in some 
of these areas. Rainfall was scarce or absent (<5 mm) 
during this period in Romania, Hungary, southern Ukraine 
and Bulgaria. Below-average rainfall was also observed in 
central Italy, southern Germany and the Czech Republic. By 
contrast, cumulated rainfall was slightly above average in 
north-western Italy, the Scandinavian Peninsula, the United 
Kingdom and south-eastern France. From 1 to 20 January, 
wetter-than-usual conditions continued in south-eastern 
France, northern Italy, the southern part of the United Kingdom 
and the southern part of the Scandinavian Peninsula, with 
cumulated rainfall above 100 mm. Above-average rainfall 
was also recorded during this period in the eastern part of 
the Iberian Peninsula, north-eastern France, along the Adriatic 
coast of the Balkan Peninsula and north-eastern Europe. 
Drier-than-usual conditions continued in Romania, Bulgaria, 
Hungary, Greece, Croatia and Turkey. Below-average rainfall, 
in the range of -30 to -50%, was also observed in Germany, 
the Czech Republic, Austria and southern Ukraine. During 
December, snow covered northern Europe and large parts of 
dropped below the long-term average by more than 10°C 
over northern Europe. Minimum temperatures below -20°C 
occurred in parts of northern Poland, the Baltic countries, 
northern Ukraine, Russia, Finland and Sweden. However, 
milder conditions continued over the main agricultural 
production areas in the rest of Europe. The positive thermal 
anomaly was especially explicit in central and south-eastern 
European countries such as Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria and 
Croatia, where mean temperatures of up to 8°C above average 
were recorded. In some of these areas, these warm weather 
conditions caused the start of de-hardening of winter crops. 
The cumulated active temperatures (Tbase=0°C) during the 
period of analysis were above the average throughout Europe, 
with the exception of Turkey.
eastern and central Europe. Due to the mild weather of the 
first dekad of January, the snow cover melted and disappeared 
in most of central Europe, the Baltic countries and some areas 
of eastern Europe, but, after 10 January, it largely recovered in 
northern and north-eastern Europe.
1. Agro-meteorological overview (1 December - 20 January)
Observed temperatures
Observed rainfall
The review period, comprising the first part of winter, has been characterised by warmer-than-usual weather conditions in most 
of Europe and drier-than-usual conditions in the regions between Germany and Turkey.
3MARS BULLETIN Vol.22 No. 1 (2014) 
1. Agro-meteorological overview (1 December - 20 January)
2014 MARS Bulletins
Date Publication  Reference
27 Jan Agromet. analysis Vol. 22 No. 1
24 Feb Agromet analysis Vol. 22 No. 2
24 Mar Agromet analysis and
 yield forecast Vol. 22 No. 3
14 Apr Agromet analysis, 
 remote sensing 
 and yield forecast Vol. 22 No. 4
12 May Agromet analysis, 
 remote sensing, 
 yield forecast 
 and pasture analysis Vol. 22 No. 5
23 Jun Agromet analysis, remote
 sensing, yield forecast 
 and pasture update Vol. 22 No. 6
21 Jul Agromet analysis, 
 remote sensing, yield 
 forecast, pasture update 
 and rice analysis Vol. 22 No. 7
25 Aug Agromet analysis, yield
 forecast and pasture update Vol. 22 No. 8
22 Sep Agromet analysis, remote
 sensing, yield forecast 
 and pasture update Vol. 22 No 9
27 Oct Agromet analysis, remote 
 sensing, yield forecast, pasture 
 analysis and rice analysis Vol. 22 No. 10
24 Nov Agromet analysis and yield 
 forecast, sowing conditions Vol. 22 No. 11
15 Dec Agromet analysis Vol. 22 No. 12
A great deal of additional information on the European Union is 
available on the Internet. It can be accessed through the Europa 
server http://europa.eu.
Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union
© European Union, 2014
Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.
Printed in Italy
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know-how to the Member States and international community.
The mission of the JRC-IES is to provide scientific-technical sup-
port to the European Union’s policies for the protection and su-
stainable development of the European and global environment
The current MARS* Bulletin is an EC publication from 
AGRI4CAST (JRC/IES MARS Unit)
All MARS Bulletins are available under: 
http://mars.jrc.ec.europa.eu/mars/Bulletins-Publications
MARS agro-meteorological data is available at:
http://www.marsop.info
Analysis and reports    
A. Bussay, A. Ceglar, G. Fontana
Reporting support
G. Mulhern
Edition 
B. Baruth, M. Van den Berg, S. Niemeyer
Data production
MARS unit AGRI4CAST/JRC, ALTERRA (NL), 
Meteoconsult (NL) and VITO (BE)
Contact 
JRC–IES-MARS / AGRI4CAST Action
info-agri4cast@jrc.ec.europa.eu
JRC 88344
EUR 24736 EN
ISSN 2314-9736 
© European Union 2014
*MARS stands for Monitoring Agricultural Resources  
Legal Notice:                   
Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on 
behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which 
might be made of this publication.
Disclaimer: 
The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation 
and are only intended to be indicative. The boundaries do 
not necessarily reflect the official EC position.  
Technical note:
The long term average (LTA) used within this Bulletin as a 
reference is based on an archive of data covering 1975-
2013.
LB-AM
-14-002-EN
-N
 


MARS Bulletin Vol.22 No 1 (2014)

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MARS Bulletin Vol.22 No 1 (2014)

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