Crop Monitoring in EuropeJRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resource

BUSSAY ATTILA

CEGLAR ANDREJ

FONTANA GIOVANNA

SEGUINI LORENZO

JRC Publications Repository

Crop Monitoring in Europe
Joint
Research
Centre
MARS BULLETIN Vol.22 No. 2 (2014)
Exceptional mild winter and very wet in western Europe
Period covered: 1 January - 17 February
 Issued: 21 February 2014
Between January and February, persistent and heavy rains occurred 
in several regions of western Europe. In northern Italy and major parts 
of the British Isles, the period under review (1 January - 17 February) 
was the wettest on our records (since 1975), with repeated periods of 
continuous rainfall. Some agricultural areas were flooded and many 
others were waterlogged.  Similar conditions occurred - to a lesser 
extent - in some regions in southern and western France. The Iberian 
Peninsula was also subjected to high rainfall, especially the first half 
of February. 
The impacts of the flooding and waterlogged conditions on crop and 
pasture production are difficult to judge at this time. Normally, during 
winter time, pastures and crops can withstand prolonged periods of 
waterlogged or ponded conditions, but this year’s rains are exceptional 
and temperature conditions are unusually mild in many of the affected 
areas. This implies that soil oxygen is relatively rapidly consumed 
by roots and microbial activity leading to root asphyxia. Depending 
on local conditions, the effects can vary from a slight impact on 
growth which can be compensated once conditions improve, to total 
crop loss and areas that have to be completely re-sown. Moreover, 
excessive rain implies nutrient losses, and affected areas could be 
more susceptible to disease outbreaks. The situation appears to be 
more serious in several areas of northern and central Italy, for which 
a relatively large share of arable land has been subject to prolonged 
rains combined with very mild temperatures.
In the UK and Ireland, grassland areas are relatively more affected 
than croplands, and temperature conditions have been somewhat 
colder (albeit still unusually mild for these regions). At the national 
level the impacts on production are expected to be limited. In France, 
the negative impact of the rains is expected to be more localised. In 
the Iberian Peninsula, the excessive rains in the north-western areas 
may have hampered pasture development, whereas the effects on 
crops and restored water reservoirs are predominantly beneficial in 
the southern regions. 
1
Agro-meteorological
overview 
2
Frost kill analysis 
2 MARS BULLETIN Vol.22 No. 2 (2014) 
In January, positive thermal anomalies in the range of 2 to 
4°C prevailed in western and central Europe. Warmer-than-
usual conditions were also recorded in southern Italy, the 
Balkan Peninsula, Hungary, western Romania, Bulgaria and 
Turkey. Around 15 January, cold air flooded the northern 
and north-eastern part of Europe up to Ukraine, Poland and 
eastern Germany, with average daily temperatures up to 10°C 
below the long-term-average. During this period, which lasted 
until the beginning of February, minimum temperatures below 
-20°C occurred in the Baltic countries, northern Ukraine, 
Belarus, Russia, Finland and Sweden. By contrast, milder-than-
usual thermal conditions continued over the main agricultural 
production areas in western Europe. After this period, average 
daily temperatures rose across Europe. Positive thermal 
anomalies in the range of 2 to 4°C were recorded in the central 
and south-eastern part of Europe, and temperatures in central 
Russia and the Scandinavian Peninsula were up to 6 to 8°C 
above average. Near- to slightly below-average temperatures 
were observed in the northern part of the Black Sea region, 
eastern Russia and the western part of the Iberian Peninsula. 
The cumulated active temperatures (Tbase=0°C) since 1 
January were well above average (>100 GDD) in France, 
the Benelux countries, Italy, the Balkan Peninsula, western 
Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria and the western part of Turkey. 
These prolonged warmer conditions, which are forecast to 
continue across Europe, are advancing the development of 
winter cereals and prevented crops to harden, which make the 
crops more vulnerable to frost in early spring. Above-average 
winter temperatures are also associated with increased pest 
and disease pressures. 
1. Agro-meteorological overview (1 January – 17 February)
Observed temperatures
Italy and the British Isles experienced an exceptionally wet period which led to floods and waterlogged soils. Above-average 
precipitation was also observed in France and Spain. Drier conditions are needed in these regions in the coming weeks to allow 
field activities. Warmer-than-usual weather conditions continue to characterise the winter season in most of Europe. 
During the period of review, northern Italy and the southern 
and western parts of the British Isles experienced an 
exceptionally wet period (the wettest on our climatological 
records since 1975), which led to floods and widespread 
waterlogging, increasing the risk of pests and constraining 
plant development. Unusually wet conditions were also 
observed in western and southern France, central and southern 
Italy, the Iberian Peninsula and Croatia. 
January was characterised by wetter-than-usual conditions in 
south-eastern France and Bretagne, northern and central Italy, 
the southern and western parts of the British Isles and the 
north-western part of the Iberian Peninsula, with cumulated 
rainfall locally above 200 mm. Above-average rainfall was 
also recorded in western France, the southern part of the 
Scandinavian Peninsula and along the Adriatic coast of the 
Balkan Peninsula. Below-average rainfall, in the range of 
-30 to -50%, was observed in Germany, the Czech Republic, 
Austria, Hungary, southern Ukraine and the northern part of 
the Scandinavian Peninsula. From 1 to 17 February, persistent 
and heavy rains continued in France, Italy, the British Isles, the 
Iberian Peninsula, the northern part of the Balkan Peninsula 
and the southern part of the Scandinavian Peninsula. 
Cumulated rainfall exceeded the long-term average by more 
than 100 mm in northern Italy, western France, the Iberian 
Peninsula, the British Isles, Slovenia and Croatia. The abundant 
rainfall recorded in southern Spain and southern Italy led to a 
favourable increase in the soil moisture content. By contrast, 
drier-than-usual conditions were recorded in Poland, eastern 
Germany, the Czech Republic, Ukraine, Greece, and around the 
Black Sea regions. During the first week of February, snow 
covered northern and eastern Europe. In central-eastern 
Europe the snow cover was thinner. After this first week, the 
snow cover started to melt and disappear in several areas due 
to the warmer conditions recorded until 17 February.
Observed rainfall
3MARS BULLETIN Vol.22 No. 2 (2014) 
1. Agro-meteorological overview (1 January – 17 February) 2. Frost kill analysis 
Frost kill in Europe has been very limited so far, thanks to 
continued warmer-than-usual weather conditions in most 
regions during most of the winter period, whereas areas with 
winter cereals that did experience cold were mostly fully 
hardened and protected by snow. 
However, as a consequence of a cold spell (minimum 
temperature below -20°C) in southern Russia in late January 
and early February, during which no protective snow cover was 
present, moderate frost-kill events have been simulated in 
the surroundings of the Volga River Delta north of the Caspian 
Sea. The same is true for central Ukraine (Poltava Okrug). 
Frost kill and the build-up of low-temperature tolerance (i.e. 
hardening) are assessed with the MARS frost kill model, based 
on weather parameters such as temperature and the presence 
and thickness of snow cover.
At the time of analysis (mid-February), little or no 
low-temperature tolerance was observed in the Mediterranean 
regions (Portugal, coastal regions of Spain, southern and 
central Italy, Greece, southern part of Hungary, Serbia and 
most of Bulgaria and western Turkey). Winter cereals are in 
a stage of partial or advanced hardening in the UK, France, 
inland Spain, northern Italy, western Germany, Denmark, 
the Benelux States and most of the Carpathian Basin. 
Full or almost full hardening has been reached (and is still 
maintained) in Poland, the Czech Republic, Romania, the Baltic 
countries, Belarus, Ukraine, Russia and eastern Turkey.
With spring approaching, the de-hardening process will soon 
get underway in Europe. Given the weather forecast for the 
next two weeks, a decrease in hardening levels is forecast for 
Italy, the Balkan Peninsula, Romania, Austria, Hungary, Czech 
Republic, Poland and southern Ukraine. In Eastern Europe, 
the plant protection level will remain high and probably 
satisfactory, in spite of the decrease in frost tolerance.
Considering the latest weather forecast, no significant frost 
damages are expected for the period between mid-February 
and the beginning of March. 
 
2014 MARS Bulletins
Date Publication  Reference
27 Jan Agromet. analysis Vol. 22 No. 1
24 Feb Agromet analysis Vol. 22 No. 2
24 Mar Agromet analysis and
 yield forecast Vol. 22 No. 3
14 Apr Agromet analysis, 
 remote sensing 
 and yield forecast Vol. 22 No. 4
12 May Agromet analysis, 
 remote sensing, 
 yield forecast 
 and pasture analysis Vol. 22 No. 5
23 Jun Agromet analysis, remote
 sensing, yield forecast 
 and pasture update Vol. 22 No. 6
21 Jul Agromet analysis, 
 remote sensing, yield 
 forecast, pasture update 
 and rice analysis Vol. 22 No. 7
25 Aug Agromet analysis, yield
 forecast and pasture update Vol. 22 No. 8
22 Sep Agromet analysis, remote
 sensing, yield forecast 
 and pasture update Vol. 22 No. 9
27 Oct Agromet analysis, remote 
 sensing, yield forecast, pasture 
 analysis and rice analysis Vol. 22 No. 10
24 Nov Agromet analysis and yield 
 forecast, sowing conditions Vol. 22 No. 11
15 Dec Agromet analysis Vol. 22 No. 12
A great deal of additional information on the European Union is 
available on the Internet. It can be accessed through the Europa 
server http://europa.eu.
Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union
© European Union, 2014
Reproduction is authorised provided the source is acknowledged.
Printed in Italy
As the Commission’s in-house science service, the Joint 
Research Centre’s mission is to provide EU policies with 
independent, evidence-based scientific and technical support 
throughout the whole policy cycle. Working in close cooperation 
with policy Directorates-General, the JRC addresses key societal 
challenges while stimulating innovation through developing new 
standards, methods and tools, and sharing and transferring its 
know-how to the Member States and international community.
The mission of the JRC-IES is to provide scientific-technical sup-
port to the European Union’s policies for the protection and su-
stainable development of the European and global environment.
The current MARS* Bulletin is an EC publication from 
AGRI4CAST (JRC/IES MARS Unit)
All MARS Bulletins are available under: 
http://mars.jrc.ec.europa.eu/mars/Bulletins-Publications
MARS agro-meteorological data is available at:
http://www.marsop.info
Analysis and reports    
A. Bussay, A. Ceglar, G. Fontana, L. Seguini
Reporting support
G. Mulhern
Edition 
B. Baruth, M. Van den Berg, S. Niemeyer
Data production
MARS unit AGRI4CAST/JRC, ALTERRA (NL), 
Meteoconsult (NL) and VITO (BE)
Contact 
JRC–IES-MARS / AGRI4CAST Action
info-agri4cast@jrc.ec.europa.eu
JRC 88345
EUR 24736 EN
ISSN 2314-9736
© European Union 2014
*MARS stands for Monitoring Agricultural Resources  
Legal Notice:                   
Neither the European Commission nor any person acting on 
behalf of the Commission is responsible for the use which 
might be made of this publication.
Disclaimer: 
The geographic borders are purely a graphical representation 
and are only intended to be indicative. The boundaries do 
not necessarily reflect the official EC position.  
Technical note:
The long term average (LTA) used within this Bulletin as a 
reference is based on an archive of data covering 1975-
2013.
LB-AM
-14-003-EN
-N
 


MARS Bulletin Vol.22 No 2 (2014) - Exceptional mild winter and very wet in western Europe

http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/bitstream/JRC88345/marsbulletin_vol22_no2.pdf

MARS Bulletin Vol.22 No 2 (2014) - Exceptional mild winter and very wet in western Europe

Abstract

Similar works

Full text

Available Versions

JRC Publications Repository