MARS BulletinJRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resource

BUSSAY ATTILA

FONTANA GIOVANNA

JRC Publications Repository

Crop Monitoring in Europe 
Joint
Research
Centre
MARS BULLETIN Vol.20 No. 12 (2012)
Period covered: 21 November - 12 December 
Issued: 17 December 2012
Currently thick and contiguous snow covers not only northern and 
eastern Europe, but also central Europe and the Balkan Peninsula. 
According to our simulations winter cereals hardening is progressing 
well and so far no frost kill damage has been simulated. 
The last dekad of November presented milder thermal conditions than 
usual in late autumn. Weather conditions changed in the first dekad of 
December and real winter conditions established across Europe. Severe 
and frequent frost events ruled the continent. Excessive precipitation 
was recorded for the British Isles and in the northern Mediterranean, 
though precipitation was abundant in most of Europe. 
Winter cereal hardening is progressing well
1
Agro-meteorological
overview 
2
Atlas maps
2 MARS BULLETIN Vol.20 No. 12 (2012) 
During November the temperature showed significant 
fluctuation, but the overall seasonal decreasing of temperatures 
was moderate and less than climatologically expected. The 
last dekad of November was warmer than usual for most of 
Europe with the exception of the western part of the Iberian 
Peninsula, some regions in Maghreb and the British Isles. 
Positive thermal anomalies from +4 to +6°C compared to 
the average temperature manifested in a wide strip between 
the Adriatic and northern Baltic regions. In the last days of 
November an arctic cold air intrusion started causing sharp 
decreases in temperature and consequently below average 
thermal conditions characterized the first dekad of December 
for most of Europe, with the exception of south eastern 
Europe including eastern Mediterranean. Also the Black Sea 
area and southern Russia remained warmer than usual. After 
6 December harsh winter frosts occured in central Europe. The 
temperature decreased below -10°C between the Baltic and 
Adriatic Sea, but in Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia 
as low as  -15°C- -18°C minimum values were recorded. Only 
the southern coastline of the Atlantic and the Mediterranean 
Sea remained frost free. The cold spell of December brought 
the risk of winter kill damage. To evaluate the risk a frost kill 
model is run. Our model simulates the hardening index of a 
crop and thus provides an estimate of the low-temperature 
tolerance of cereals, taking into account plant physiology 
(hardening process, i.e. transformation of the cellular starch 
into glucose, thereby raising the freezing point of the cellular 
liquids). In our model a fully hardened winter cereal is 
considered to tolerate -18°C. The results of model runs based 
on observed weather conditions up to 10 December 2012 
indicate no or slight low-temperature tolerance of winter 
cereals along the shore of southern Europe. Crops achieved 
medium frost tolerance in France, Benelux countries, the UK, 
central Spain, northern Balkan, Turkey, eastern Ukraine and 
southern districts of Russia. Winter crops are almost or fully 
hardened in an area from Germany to Belarus and western 
Ukraine just as the northern agricultural zones of Europe. No 
frost damages are simulated until now on the basis of our frost 
kill analysis. Taking into account the medium range weather 
forecast until 26 December the period is simulated to remain 
free of damage. The active temperature sum (Tbase=0°C) for 
the considered time-period indicates characteristically +20- 
+50 growing degree days surplus eastward of Poland-Croatia 
l with a remarkable local maximum close to the Sea of Azov 
and further with decerasing intensity towards the Caspian 
Sea. The above average thermal conditions on these territories 
favoured the development of winter crops.
The precipitation amount from 21 November until 10 
December was above average in Germany, Bulgaria, Romania, 
Turkey, Belarus, most of Ukraine and large areas of central 
Russia. Excessive precipitation surpassed 150 mm in Middle 
England, in some regions on the western and northern shore of 
the Iberian Peninsula as well as in the Alpine region, northern 
Italy, and along the western coast of Tyrrhenian, Adriatic, 
Ionian and Aegean Sea. These areas received a rain surplus of 
over 75 mm as compared to the long term average. 
Favourably plentiful rain was also recorded in Morocco and 
Algeria. Hardly any precipitation (<10 mm) was measured in 
eastern Spain, in western Scandinavia, and in smaller districts 
of Austria, Hungary, Slovakia and Poland. 
Primarily most of Scandinavia and the northern areas of 
Russia were snow covered, but starting the last days of 
November, more and more thick snow covered central Europe. 
On 10 December snow covered not only most of Scandinavia, 
but also areas from eastern France and Germany to Russia 
including Poland, central Europe, northern Italy, the Balkan 
Peninsula and Ukraine as well as Turkey. Snow depth has a 
significant spatial variability, but reaches characteristically 
5-15 cm on the lowlands and exceeds 20 cm on given regions 
of the Balkan, Romania and Ukraine. 
1. AGRO-METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW 
Observed temperatures Observed precipitation
The last dekad of November presented milder thermal conditions than usual in late autumn. Weather conditions 
changed dramatically in the first dekad of December and real winter conditions established across Europe. Severe 
and frequent frost events ruled the continent. Excessive precipitation was recorded for the British Isles and in 
the northern Mediterranean, though precipitation was abundant in most of Europe. Currently thick and contiguous 
snow covers not only northern and eastern Europe, but also central Europe and the Balkan Peninsula.
3MARS BULLETIN Vol.20 No. 12 (2012) 
2. ATLAS MAPS
Temperatures
1. AGRO-METEOROLOGICAL OVERVIEW 
Precipitation
2012 MARS Bulletins
Date Publication  Reference
13 Jan Agromet. analysis Vol. 20 No. 1
10 Feb Agromet. analysis Vol. 20 No. 2
26 Mar Agromet. analysis and 
 yield forecast Vol. 20 No. 3
23 Apr Agromet. analysis, remote
 sensing analysis, and yield
 forecast Vol. 20 No.4
29 May Agromet. analysis, remote
 sensing analysis, and yield 
 forecast, pasture analysis Vol. 20 No. 5
25 Jun Agromet. analysis, remote
 sensing analysis, and yield 
 forecast, pasture update Vol. 20 No. 6
23 Jul Agromet. analysis, remote 
 sensing analysis, and yield 
 forecast, pasture update, 
 rice analysis Vol. 20 No. 7
27 Aug Agromet. analysis and yield 
 forecast, pasture update Vol. 20 No. 8
24 Sep Agromet. analysis, remote
 sensing analysis and yield 
 forecast, pasture update Vol. 20 No. 9
22 Oct Agromet. analysis, remote 
 sensing analysis and yield 
 forecast, pasture analysis, 
 rice analysis Vol. 20 No. 10
26 Nov Agromet. analysis, campaign 
 review and yield forecast Vol. 20 No. 11
17 Dec Agromet. analysis Vol. 20 No. 12
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© European Union, 2012
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Analysis and reports    
A. Bussay, G. Fontana
Reporting support
C. Aspinall, I. Biavetti
Edition 
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Data production
MARS unit AGRI4CAST/JRC and ALTERRA (NL), Meteoconsult 
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Contacts 
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JRC 68576
EUR 24736 EN 
ISSN 1831-9424 
ISSN 1831-9793
© European Union 2012
*MARS stands for Monitoring Agricultural Resources  
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LB-AM
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MARS Bulletin Vol. 20, No. 12

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MARS Bulletin Vol. 20, No. 12

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