The analysis presented in this report focuses specifically on two issues of potential concern with respect to shale gas development in EU member states using hydraulic fracturing technologies: pressure on freshwater resources, and land use competition. Potential alternative technologies, such as “dry fracking”, are not considered, because they are still at the research and development stage.
We reviewed available literature in order to identify important variables that may influence the land and water requirements associated with shale gas development. We further derived a range of representative values spanning worst-, average- and best-case scenarios for each variable. We then coupled specific technology scenarios (incorporating these variables) regarding water and land use requirements for shale gas development from 2013-2028 with spatially-resolved water and land availability/demand modeling tools (i.e. using the European Land Use Modelling Platform (LUMP)). Scenario analyses (intended to represent worst-, average- and best-case assumptions) were subsequently implemented that incorporate a subset of the identified variables for shale gas development in the Lower Paleozoic Baltic-Podlasie-Lublin basin in Poland and for Germany as a whole from 2013-2028.
In addition, we undertook a screening-level risk assessment of potential human and ecosystem health impacts attributable to accidental or operational release of chemicals used in hydraulic fracturing of shale formations, as well as the average gaseous emissions (per active well) associated with shale gas development activities that might be anticipated within a shale play. Finally, we developed a qualitative discussion of necessary considerations to support future air quality impact assessments for shale gas development activities.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen
