Multi-Scale GIS-Based Multi-Criteria Analysis in Support to Decision-Making in Renewable Energy and Automotive Road Transport Sectors

Abstract

The challenges posed by global change and, in particular, by one of its megatrends - climate change- imply the growing impact on the social-ecological systems. This in turn induces the search for new innovative technologies for mitigation of climate change impacts through GHG emissions reduction. One of the most promising in achieving large GHG emissions reductions from the most emitting sectors (power generation and road transportation) in the short- medium- and long-term are renewable energy generation and electrified vehicles technologies. Given the diversity of factors and associated uncertainty which influence the territorial introduction of aforementioned technologies, it is of interest to gain understanding on the potential dynamics of their penetration. Considering that an energy-related challenges require a comprehensive approach vis-à-vis the multi-criteria issues which are essentially linked among others large scale introduction of renewable energy sources (RES) for electric energy production, environmental impact and economic impact. In this thesis the following technologies and associated issues were analyzed: wind power, feedstock for biogas production and electrified vehicles as promising and feasible options for short to medium term decline in GHG emissions. In this thesis the multi-criteria-geographic information system (MCA-GIS) based approach was chosen to be developed for the evaluation of the potential of aforementioned technologies at a given scale of assessment with subsequent scenario production. As a results the multiple scientific products were obtained all aiming at supporting the decision-makers in their choices of the appropriate measures to be implemented. In case of wind energy the focus was on the identification of the necessary options that manage the variability of wind turbine output and enable the large scale integration of wind power with the current electricity system, such as additional power reserves, distributed storage technologies, in particular electric vehicles, and cross-border power transmission. The influence of geographical location of wind turbines on the produced power variability was addressed as well. It was highlighted that even though the state-of-art technologies for the higher wind integration are present, there is a necessity for the proper management and integration of mentioned options. The approach developed during the assessment of the feedstock for biogas production via anaerobic co-digestion exploited the spatial relations among territorial units (i.e., a contiguity analysis), and integrates time series of continuous and discrete data and permitted to develop a territorial information system in support for biogas planning, perform analysis of feedstock for biogas from different sources potential and produce plausible scenarios for identification of biogas suitable territorial clusters. While analysis of market potential for electrified vehicles (EDVs) allowed to produce first the factor set that allows the identification of possible lead markets for EDVs in Europe and to investigate how these regions will be changing in time between first early-adopter areas towards other long-term potential lead regions, depending on the evolution of the market drivers and assist in the informed political decisions as to at which scale and area a policy intervention might be appropriate in order to support lead markets for EDVs. Secondly a fully functional GIS-based multi-criteria decision support process with fuzzy measures was developed and applied at NUTS2 regions and cities within EU27 member states with three scenarios. Across the scenario horizon, it was shown how lead regions for EDVs will be changing in time between first early-adopter areas towards other long-term potential lead regions, depending on the evolution of the market drivers.JRC.F.7-Energy systems evaluatio