A Marathe

AJ McMichael

AR Tuite

Aubree Gordon

Benjamin J. Cowling

BJ Cowling

C Barrett

C Fraser

C Viboud

CA Donnelly

Cécile Viboud

D Carcione

D Yu

DL Chao

E Goldstein

E Lofgren

E Shim

F Carrat

Fengchen Liu

FG Hayden

Guowei Yu

IM Longini

J Dushoff

J Papenburg

J Shaman

J Song

J Truscott

JJ Cannell

JM Epstein

JT Wu

K Koelle

Kathryn J. Ray

KO Kwok

L Pellis

LL Lau

LR Elveback

M Hvistendahl

M Lipsitch

M Uddin

MA Beaumont

ME Halloran

Megan P. Coffee

N Nukiwa-Souma

N Shaban

NAM Molinari

NJ Cox

NM Ferguson

P Bajardi

P Minayev

P Shi

PEM Fine

QJ Ding

R Grais

R Jain

RR Miller 3rd

S Bansal

S Cauchemez

SM Blower

ST Brown

T Bedford

T Hesketh

T House

T Toni

TC Germann

TC Porco

Tomás J. Aragón

Travis C. Porco

TY Aditama

Wayne T. A. Enanoria

Y Yang

Y Zeng

YL Shu

PLoS ONE

PubMed

Background: China's one-child-per-couple policy, introduced in 1979, led to profound demographic changes for nearly a quarter of the world's population. Several decades later, the consequences include decreased fertility rates, population aging, decrease

Porco, Travis

Liu, F

Enanoria, WTA

Ray, KJ

Coffee, MP

Gordon, A

Aragón, TJ

Yu, G

Cowling, BJ

Porco, TC

eScholarship - University of California

Effect of the one-child policy on influenza transmission in China: A stochastic transmission model

Enanoria, WT

Aragon, TJ

HKU Scholars Hub

Effect of the one-child policy on influenza transmission in China: a stochastic transmission model

<div>BackgroundChina's one-child-per-couple policy, introduced in 1979, led to profound demographic changes for nearly a quarter of the world's population. Several decades later, the consequences include decreased fertility rates, population aging, decreased household sizes, changes in family structure, and imbalanced sex ratios. The epidemiology of communicable diseases may have been affected by these changes since the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases depend on demographic characteristics of the population. Of particular interest is influenza because China and Southeast Asia lie at the center of a global transmission network of influenza. Moreover, changes in household structure may affect influenza transmission. Is it possible that the pronounced demographic changes that have occurred in China have affected influenza transmission?Methods and FindingsTo address this question, we developed a continuous-time, stochastic, individual-based simulation model for influenza transmission. With this model, we simulated 30 years of influenza transmission and compared influenza transmission rates in populations with and without the one-child policy control. We found that the average annual attack rate is reduced by 6.08% (SD 2.21%) in the presence of the one-child policy compared to a population in which no demographic changes occurred. There was no discernible difference in the secondary attack rate, −0.15% (SD 1.85%), between the populations with and without a one-child policy. We also forecasted influenza transmission over a ten-year time period in a population with a two-child policy under a hypothesis that a two-child-per-couple policy will be carried out in 2015, and found a negligible difference in the average annual attack rate compared to the population with the one-child policy.ConclusionsThis study found that the average annual attack rate is slightly lowered in a population with a one-child policy, which may have resulted from a decrease in household size and the proportion of children in the population.</div

Fengchen Liu (432859)

Wayne T. A. Enanoria (584056)

Kathryn J. Ray (370882)

Megan P. Coffee (584057)

Aubree Gordon (109169)

Tomás J. Aragón (484497)

Guowei Yu (584058)

Benjamin J. Cowling (91306)

Travis C. Porco (116223)

The Francis Crick Institute

Effect of the One-Child Policy on Influenza Transmission in China: A Stochastic Transmission Model

Liu, Fengchen

Enanoria, Wayne T

Ray, Kathryn J

Coffee, Megan P

Gordon, Aubree

Aragon, Tomas J

Yu, Guowei

Cowling, Benjamin J

Porco, Travis C

English

Crossref

China's one-child-per-couple policy, introduced in 1979, led to profound demographic changes for nearly a quarter of the world's population. Several decades later, the consequences include decreased fertility rates, population aging, decreased household sizes, changes in family structure, and imbalanced sex ratios. The epidemiology of communicable diseases may have been affected by these changes since the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases depend on demographic characteristics of the population. Of particular interest is influenza because China and Southeast Asia lie at the center of a global transmission network of influenza. Moreover, changes in household structure may affect influenza transmission. Is it possible that the pronounced demographic changes that have occurred in China have affected influenza transmission?To address this question, we developed a continuous-time, stochastic, individual-based simulation model for influenza transmission. With this model, we simulated 30 years of influenza transmission and compared influenza transmission rates in populations with and without the one-child policy control. We found that the average annual attack rate is reduced by 6.08% (SD 2.21%) in the presence of the one-child policy compared to a population in which no demographic changes occurred. There was no discernible difference in the secondary attack rate, -0.15% (SD 1.85%), between the populations with and without a one-child policy. We also forecasted influenza transmission over a ten-year time period in a population with a two-child policy under a hypothesis that a two-child-per-couple policy will be carried out in 2015, and found a negligible difference in the average annual attack rate compared to the population with the one-child policy.This study found that the average annual attack rate is slightly lowered in a population with a one-child policy, which may have resulted from a decrease in household size and the proportion of children in the population

Wayne T A Enanoria

Kathryn J Ray

Megan P Coffee

Tomás J Aragón

Benjamin J Cowling

Travis C Porco

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http://hub.hku.hk/bitstream/10722/195743/1/Content.pdf

Effect of the one-child policy on influenza transmission in China: a stochastic transmission model

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eScholarship - University of California

HKU Scholars Hub

The Francis Crick Institute

eScholarship - University of California

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Directory of Open Access Journals