A study on the effect of N deposition on tree grwoth in Italian forest

Bertini, Giada

Calderisi, Marco

Fabbio, Gianfranco

Ferretti, Marco

Marchetto, Aldo

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Changes in management, climate and N deposition explain 
recent deviation from expected growth in mature Spruce and 
Beech forests in Italy 
Growth deviation and 
environmental 
changes 
Athens - May 27, 2014 
Ferretti M., Bertini G., Calderisi M., Fabbio G., Marchetto A.   
Growth deviation 
 Reported changes in tree growth 
(Spieker et al.1996, Leuzinger et 
al.2005, Ciais et al. 2005) 
 
 Possible reason: management, 
increasing AT, changes in 
precipitation pattern, raising CO2 
level, fertilization by N deposition, 
increasing O3 concentration. 
 
 Role of environmental drivers and 
management 
A preliminary investigation on factors involved in recently 
measured growth deviation at selected CONECOFOR plots  
Growth deviation and environmental changes: A preliminary investigation on factors involved in recent growth changes at the CONECOFOR plots  
Athens - May 27, 2014 
Talk outline 
 Concept and methods 
 
 Variables used in the study 
 
 Results and conclusions 
A preliminary investigation on factors involved in recently 
measured growth deviation at selected CONECOFOR plots  
Growth deviation and environmental changes: A preliminary investigation on factors involved in recent growth changes at the CONECOFOR plots  
Athens - May 27, 2014 
Talk outline 
 Concept and methods 
 
 Variables used in the study 
 
 Results and conclusions 
A preliminary investigation on factors involved in recently 
measured growth deviation at selected CONECOFOR plots  
Growth deviation and environmental changes: A preliminary investigation on factors involved in recent growth changes at the CONECOFOR plots  
Athens - May 27, 2014 
Concept and methods 
 
A preliminary investigation on factors involved in recently 
measured growth deviation at selected CONECOFOR plots  
 
 Concept: by comparing measured 
growth data  and data from yield 
tables , investigate the role of 
environmental drivers in explaining 
recent growth deviation 
 
 Data: measured growth on 10 
CONECOFOR plots compared to 
yield tables for same or similar forests 
(1915-1974) 
 
 Statistical methods: subsequent MLR 
models, starting from a reference 
model (only management related 
variables) 
Growth deviation and environmental changes: A preliminary investigation on factors involved in recent growth changes at the CONECOFOR plots  
Athens - May 27, 2014 
3. Environmental 
pollution:   
 
 O3 concentration 
 CO2 level 
 N deposition 
 
1. Meteorology 
2. Management 
Predictor variables environmental changes 
Differences between present and past condition 
Growth deviation and environmental changes: A preliminary investigation on factors involved in recent growth changes at the CONECOFOR plots  
Athens - May 27, 2014 
Talk outline 
Growth deviation and environmental changes: A preliminary investigation on factors involved in recent growth changes at the CONECOFOR plots  
Athens - May 27, 2014 
A preliminary investigation on factors involved in recently 
measured growth deviation at selected CONECOFOR plots  
 Concept and methods 
 
 Variables used in the study 
 
 Results and conclusions 
Response variable  
Difference between recently measured tree growth and 
growth from yield tables (1915-1974) in terms of mean volume 
increment (m3 ha-1 years-1) 
m3 ha-1 years-1 
Growth deviation and environmental changes: A preliminary investigation on factors involved in recent growth changes at the CONECOFOR plots  
Athens - May 27, 2014 
δ AT 
differences between AT (annual 
mean, maximum, minimum) 
measured 2000-2009 and 
modeled 1961-1990 (Attorre et al. 
2008)   
δ PR 
differences between PR (annual, 
winter, spring, summer, 
autumn)measured 2000-2009 and 
modeled1961-1990 (Attorre et al. 
2008)  
Predictor variables 1 
Metereology: precipitation and air temperature 
Growth deviation and environmental changes: A preliminary investigation on factors involved in recent growth changes at the CONECOFOR plots  
Athens - May 27, 2014 
δ Age _Max 
differences between current ages 
of standing crops and maximum 
ages of yield tables  
δ Age _Max_GR 
differences between current ages 
of standing crops and ages of 
mean volume increment 
culmination of yield tables 
Predictor variables 2 
Management 
Growth deviation and environmental changes: A preliminary investigation on factors involved in recent growth changes at the CONECOFOR plots  
Athens - May 27, 2014 
N deposition 
δ N_dep 
differences between actual bulk N deposition (1998-2009)and potential N 
deposition estimated at the year of yield tables(Denter 2006) 
Predictor variable 3 
Growth deviation and environmental changes: A preliminary investigation on factors involved in recent growth changes at the CONECOFOR plots  
Athens - May 27, 2014 
δ O3 
differences between actual O3 concentration and O3 concentration 
modeled for years ≤1950  by (Staehelin et al 1994) 
Predictor variable 4 
O3 concentration 
Growth deviation and environmental changes: A preliminary investigation on factors involved in recent growth changes at the CONECOFOR plots  
Athens - May 27, 2014 
Talk outline 
A preliminary investigation on factors involved in recently 
measured growth deviation at selected CONECOFOR plots  
 Concept and methods 
 
 Variables used in the study 
 
 Results and conclusions 
Growth deviation and environmental changes: A preliminary investigation on factors involved in recent growth changes at the CONECOFOR plots  
Athens - May 27, 2014 
Variables and final models 
Variables 
Metereology 
δPR_winter 
δPR_spring 
δPR_summer 
δPR_aut 
δPR_tot 
δAT_min 
δAT_mean 
δAT_max 
Environmental 
pollution 
δN_dep 
δO3 
Management 
δAge_Max 
δAge_Max_GR 
Models 
Reference 
Reference + T +Pr  
Reference + O3 +N  
Reference + T+ Pr +N  
 
Reference + T + Pr + O3 
 
Growth deviation and environmental changes: A preliminary investigation on factors involved in recent growth changes at the CONECOFOR plots  
Athens - May 27, 2014 
Models output  
Explained variance 
Growth deviation and environmental changes: A preliminary investigation on factors involved in recent growth changes at the CONECOFOR plots  
Athens - May 27, 2014 
Models output  
Estimated variable coeffiecients per model 
* 
* 
** 
** 
** 
* 
* 
*** 
* 
** 
** 
** 
Growth deviation and environmental changes: A preliminary investigation on factors involved in recent growth changes at the CONECOFOR plots  
Athens - May 27, 2014 
y = 1.5279ln(x) - 1.1895 
R² = 0.42 
-2 
-1.5 
-1 
-0.5 
0 
0.5 
1 
1.5 
2 
0 1 2 3 4 5 
δ
 G
R
m
, m
3
 h
a
-1
 
δ N deposition, kg ha-1 yr-1 
Beech 
Spruce 
N deposition 
y = -1.954ln(x) + 6.9139 
R² = 0.29275 
-2 
-1.5 
-1 
-0.5 
0 
0.5 
1 
1.5 
2 
0 20 40 60 80 
δ
 G
R
m
, m
3
 h
a
-1
 
δ O3, ppb 
Beech 
Spruce 
O3 concentration 
Relationships between growth deviation 
and predictor variables 
Growth deviation and environmental changes: A preliminary investigation on factors involved in recent growth changes at the CONECOFOR plots  
Athens - May 27, 2014 
Conclusions 
N deposition and growth deviation 
 Past growth models explained ca. 64% of the average growth as recorded 
by current measurement 
 
 Deviations from expected growth are explained by changes in several 
factors related to management (delayed rotation time,  negative effect) 
and meteorology (T max, negative effect) 
 
 Estimated changes in N deposition had a positive effect on reported 
growth deviation 
 
 Tropospheric ozone, had a negative effect, something that was not 
obvious from investigation on current growth (Ferretti et al., 2014; 2003; 
Ferretti and Bussotti, 2009) 
 
 These preliminary results are subject to several uncertainties and  needs 
confirmation by further investigation  
Growth deviation and environmental changes: A preliminary investigation on factors involved in recent growth changes at the CONECOFOR plots  
Athens - May 27, 2014 
Thanks 
Special thanks to: 
Tiziano Sorgi 
CRA-RPS 
 
Fabio Francesconi 
Università degli Studi di Roma “La Sapienza” 
Growth deviation and environmental changes: A preliminary investigation on factors involved in recent growth changes at the CONECOFOR plots  
Athens - May 27, 2014 


Changes in management, climate and N deposition explain recent deviation from expected growth in mature Spruce and Beech forests in Italy

http://puma.isti.cnr.it/rmydownload.php?filename=cnr.ise/cnr.ise/2014-A3-003/2014-A3-003.pdf

Changes in management, climate and N deposition explain recent deviation from expected growth in mature Spruce and Beech forests in Italy

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